Question for CNN: Is Minnesota really a toss-up state?
August 24, 2008 12:38 pm ET by Eric Boehlert
CNN's John King, working his interactive map on Sunday, claimed if the election were held today Obama would win 221 electoral votes and McCain 189. King stressed that so many key states remain toss-ups. (That's good a narrative for the media.)
King claimed one key toss-up state is Minnesota. Really? According to Pollster's trend estimates, Obama is up by seven points in Minnesota, and there's only one poll listed at Pollser that shows McCain ahead in the land of lakes. And that was from January. We get the feeling CNN is trying a bit too hard to push the, It's-a-tie! storyline.
P.S. Pollster puts the current (albeit, hypothetical) electoral count at Obama 260, McCain 176. (That's a bad narrative for the media.)
-- there hasn't been a single poll this year that showed McCain ahead -- Boehlert
Sure there has...Survey USA showed McCain with a lead in Jan08 and Mar08.
Toss up? Rassmussen shows Obama's lead dropping from 13 pts. in June to 4 pts. in their latest poll.
Toss up? Quinnipiac shows Obama's lead dropping from 17 pts. in June to 2 pts. in their latest poll.
Toss up? RCP calls it a toss up and Pollster calls it "leaning" to Obama.
Obama and McCain supporters can read the same polling and come to different conclusions...but there is ample evidence that Obama has yet to close the deal in Minnesota.
Once again, as usual, the cable media and pollsters are attempting to influence voters by making illusions to and implications about the upcoming election.
In this reader's opinion, CNN has joined the rest of the media simpletons who believe they are relevant and that I'm so incredibly stupid, that I will base my vote on what they report or say.
Not happening - this is a real non-Rep voting year for this family. Anyone who has the misfortune of choosing to be a Republican or even a Republican trying desperately to sound normal, rational or Democratic, will not receive our votes and in fact, we have pulled out of the Republican Party and changed our registration.
It is my belief that those of us who care, must vote. This is not personal, it is a vote for the strength of our country and against the last 8 years of turning our Republic into a snooping fascist state run by morons.
-- there's only one poll listed at Pollser that showed McCain ahead in the land of lakes. And that was from January. -- Boehlert's revised story line
That's better...and I'll cede the Mar08 Survey USA poll that shows McCain ahead of Obama...it's within the margin of error.
-- According to Pollster, Obama has, on average, a seven point lead in Minnesota -- Boehlert
No, that's not correct. Pollster doesn't use averages...like RCP...except when they have limited polling data. In the case of Minnesota, they have years of polling data.
From Pollster:
-- In most cases, the numbers are not an "average" but rather regression based trendlines...The numbers for each candidate correspond to the most recent trend estimate...that is the end point of the trend line that we draw for each candidate. --
Is Minnesota a toss up state? Maybe, maybe not. Every partisan or pundit or individual voter can build there own case from the data.
It certainly appears that Obama has the upper hand in Minnesota...but he has not sealed the deal yet.