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From where is the AP getting $1.5 trillion?

July 15, 2009 7:15 pm ET by Matt Gertz

In an article that is burning up the tubes, the Associated Press' Erica Werner reported today that the House Democrats' tri-committee health-care reform proposal would cost "$1.5 trillion." Where does that figure come from? Werner doesn't break it down.

Yesterday, the Congressional Budget Office released a preliminary analysis scoring "specifications... reflected" in the bill released the same day. That analysis pegged those specs at a cost of a little over $1 trillion. The CBO went out of its way to point out that their estimates "are based on specifications provided by the tri-committee group rather than an analysis of the language released"; there are provisions included in the bill that the CBO did not include in their analysis.

So where did the AP's $1.5 trillion figure come from? Well, AP reports that "a House Democratic aide said the total bill would add up to about $1.5 trillion over 10 years." So Werner got an anonymous source to give her a figure, and with no indication in her article that she consulted anyone inside or outside Congress to confirm that number, reported it as fact. Where is the extra $500 billion coming from on top of the CBO score? What provisions did the CBO not score? Why does this anonymous aide think those provisions cost half a trillion dollars? Does anyone else agree with him or her? Readers wouldn't know from the AP article.

Tags: Associated Press

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    • Author by oscar the grouch (July 15, 2009 8:13 pm ET)
         
      So the CBO score is up to a Trillion now? Was between 700-800 Billion about a week ago. Give it about 6 months and it may well reach the AP number. GEEEESH!!!!!
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      • Author by oscar the grouch (July 15, 2009 11:39 pm ET)
           
        In fact, last week MMFA posted an article scoring the health "insurance" plan at $611 Billion, so it has almost doubled in a week. by mid-August $1.5 Trillion may seem like "chump change" at this rate.
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    • Author by bruce1ace (July 15, 2009 9:18 pm ET)
      1 1
      Anyone who thinks the new health care plan, whatever it is, will come in UNDER budget is completely insane. There's no chance.

      My goodness they missed the deficit projections for ONE YEAR by 600 BILLION. That's over a half-trillion right there.
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      • Author by LuvLuLu (July 16, 2009 2:34 pm ET)
        1  
        It doesn't matter, for the sake of this discussion, what the actual costs are. We're talking about projections based upon the CBO and a number thrown out there by some anonymous staffer!
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    • Author by patachon (July 15, 2009 11:07 pm ET)
         
      It's amazing how the right-wingers only pay attention to the CBO when the estimates are off the charts.
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      • Author by oscar the grouch (July 15, 2009 11:33 pm ET)
        1 1
        Yep, you are right, we should just sit back and let it happen. We won't have to pay for it and who gives a care about those that come after us. The Left-wingers were off the wall about the costs of the Middle East adventure and now all is well. Oh, how things change in a couple of years!!!!!!!
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        • Author by peace4all (July 16, 2009 8:28 am ET)
             
          actually, some of us are still very angry that the right spend all that money on their "look at me, i'm a tuff guy" adventures in the middle east. the trouble is that you guys made such a mess of things that we have to keep spending the money now so that we can try and stop the flow of innocent blood being spilt. even if health care costs the 1.5 trillion number at least it's to help save lives instead of taking them. thats the difference between the left and the right. the left is pro life and the right is only pro life for emoba's and people that they like.
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          • Author by oscar the grouch (July 16, 2009 9:22 am ET)
              1
            And you are probably all for spending $1.5 Trillion as long as it comes from some other pocket than your own. Some of us advocated for a surtax to fund the Middle East adventure, so don't lump us all into the big barrel. It's much like me saying that the left is pro-choice except when it comes to schools, guns, etc. That broad brush paints all even those there are those on the left that are truly pro-choice about more than emoba's (your word, have no idea what you mean, couldn't find it in my dictionary).
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            • Author by nerzog (July 16, 2009 9:33 am ET)
              2  
              The bottom line is that 150 billion a year for HealthCare, if it really does come in that high, is about the same cost as Puddinhead George's little Nation Building experiment, which is ringing up at about 144 billion a year so far.

              So, which is the better use of our money? And yes, I do pay taxes.
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            • Author by steeve (July 16, 2009 6:55 pm ET)
              1  
              Some of you also voted for Bush while Clinton had the deficit plunging. The blood's on your hands.

              I don't see how anyone who voted for Bush can comment on anything without flushing beet red with embarrassment on every word.
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    • Author by nerzog (July 16, 2009 9:21 am ET)
         
      So, we're looking at 150 billion a year, basically. Sounds like a bargain to me.
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    • Author by goesto11 (July 16, 2009 10:17 am ET)
      1  
      It would have been so much more convenient if the conservatives had "found religion" on spending BEFORE they got us into this mess.

      And yes, it is relevant to point that out, just as the conservatives kept pointing out that Bush inherited the recession from Clinton. (though that was, of course, horse hockey)
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      • Author by nerzog (July 16, 2009 10:48 am ET)
        1  
        Of course it's relevant. Why? Because all this whining and hand wringing from Republicans is for one purpose only... to get themselves back in control.
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    • Author by dusaa1975 (July 16, 2009 10:30 am ET)
        1
      To take a govt estimate and double it to get a true cost, usually does not get you close to the actual cost... but it is a start.
      Just because the US doesn't have the money should not stop us from printing money. We can get the inflation and the future generations can try to pay for it.
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    • Author by NiceguyEddie (July 16, 2009 10:48 am ET)
      4  
      The problem as I see it is that they are trying to do a public option by raising income taxes on some, but then also taxing the employer benefit. Which means a lot of people will pay both their current premium, PLUS a tax on it, and some will see another tax increase over that. BUT... This is a result of the right's and the public's irrational resistance to having a single, publicly financed plan. (Even one that's still MANAGED by ins. co's) If that were done, then the necessary tax increase on EVERYONE would be offset by the fact that they are no longer paying premiums and also very little in the way of out-of-pocket expense. But if we ALL paid into the SAME PLAN, the cost would be less per person, and the only people's who TAKE HOME PAY would be less would be working folks who don;t have health care. (And I'm sure 99% of them WOULD pay for it, if their employers offered it.) It should not be about the rich subsodizing the poor (which they already do) but rather the healthy subsodizing the sick. (Which the also already do, but which should be done on an organized, national as well as non- or fixed- profit basis.)

      So once again, the Democrat's lack of balls combined with the Republican's lack of brains result in America getting doubly screwed, once again.
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      • Author by nerzog (July 16, 2009 11:47 am ET)
           
        Agreed. In their eagerness to compromise with the Troglodytes, Democrats are going to create an unworkable mess.
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