About us Login Get email updates
County Fair
Print

Really?  Why would we think that?

August 18, 2009 9:51 am ET by Jamison Foser

Yesterday's New York Times:

For Mr. Obama, giving up on the public plan would have risks and rewards. The reward is that he could punch a hole in Republican arguments that he wants a "government takeover" of health care and possibly win some Republican votes.

Really?  What indications are there that this would actually happen?  Which Republicans have said that if the public plan is dropped, they'll sign on?  What in the GOP's recent behavior towards Democratic Presidents -- say, over the past 40 years or so -- suggests they will abandon their "government takeover" arguments, much less sign on to health care reform that does not include a public plan but is still significant?

The Times, of course, doesn't address any of those questions.  Several paragraphs later, it even acknowledges that "whether a co-operative would actually bring Republicans on board with Mr. Obama is unclear."  The closest the article comes to providing any reason to think that might happen is a quote by Republican Senator Richard Shelby saying "we ought to look at" the idea of replacing the public plan with a co-op model.  

For that matter, the article provides exactly zero evidence, no matter how weak, that dropping the public option would even win over conservative Democrats.

The notion that dropping the public plan will win the support of Republicans, and get them to drop their arguments about a "government takeover" is based on the assumption that conservatives are debating and negotiating in good faith.  That's an assumption the media has little if any reason to make, and significant reasons to be skeptical of.  But it regularly underlies media coverage of public policy debates despite the frequency with which it is shown to be baseless.  This Times article is just an example -- and not even a particularly egregious one at that.

Expand All Expand 1st Level Collapse All Add Comment
    • Author by The_Cat (August 18, 2009 10:04 am ET)
      4 1
      There will be no support from Republicans. They have declared themselves to be the party of No. They aren't interested in bi-partisanship, they are not interested as elected officials with representing their constituents. They are simply waiting for the pendulum to swing back, and for their return to power.

      The same ones who oppose health coverage reform, a broken system that currently kills around 18,000 people a year, were in favor of creating an entire new wing of the federal government in the form of a Department of Homeland Security based on the deaths of some 3,000 people. Based on this simple fact alone, they themselves are more interested in power than in saving people. Over 100,000 people have died from lack of health coverage since 9-11, but this does not affect them and so it does not concern them. They have their health coverage.

      They are a minority party, Mr. President. We voted them out of power in the House, the Senate, the White House, and in many governorships and state legislatures around this country. Have the courage of your convictions. You've reached out to these 'people' long enough. Get down to business, and get this health reform passed. Soon. And, complete with a public option, otherwise there is very little point to the rest of it.
      Report Abuse
      • Author by Tbone Slickens (August 18, 2009 11:07 am ET)
          5
        a broken system that currently kills around 18,000 people a year


        OK it's time to take this one to task. It is bandied about on this forum and I'm guess most if not all have no perspective on what the data means.

        The US Center for Disease Control and Prevention's mortality data say that those 18000 deaths only represent 3% of deaths of working age Americans. If we extended universal insurance coverage to 100% you would only increase life expectancy for TWO MONTHS. That is a drop in the bucket.
        Report Abuse
        • Author by vhw28672478 (August 18, 2009 11:47 am ET)
          1  
          We need heath care reformed
          Report Abuse
        • Author by NG_Officer (August 18, 2009 11:49 am ET)
             
          2 months times 304 million Americans...hmmm, some drop in the bucket.
          Report Abuse
          • Author by foghornleghorn (August 18, 2009 12:04 pm ET)
            1  
            That's roughly 50 million additional years of life expectancy.

            mfoot also fails to address the pesky bankruptcy issue.
            Report Abuse
          • Author by Tbone Slickens (August 18, 2009 12:13 pm ET)
              1
            Nope. Use the correct figures. That is for working age Americans, you know, the data IOM used to come up with the 18k figure. When that data is applied it is less than 1%. It is a drop in the bucket.
            Report Abuse
            • Author by The_Cat (August 18, 2009 12:42 pm ET)
                 
              So, Tbone Slickens, 9-11 was 1/6 of a drop in the bucket by your math. I guess President Bush kinda overreacted, didn't he?

              Hey, maybe instead of health coverage reform, we should have warfare reform. You know, like a policy where we don't randomly invade and destroy some third rate country every 5 to 10 years just so the chickenhawks can feel more manly about themselves?
              Report Abuse
        • Author by eweston8542983 (August 18, 2009 11:49 am ET)
             
          So what would its effect be on those 18,000? How many lives would in fact be unaffected by universal healthcare coverage? What will we be paying in ten years of status quo in the health industry?
          Report Abuse
        • Author by NiceguyEddie (August 18, 2009 12:41 pm ET)
             
          That is the most egregiously misleading use of statistics that I've even seen. That's serious worse than Boston's sabermetric-driven 2003 "Closer by committe" idea. That is seriously like... wow. You'll be doing 2 Sample T-test in HELL for eternity for abusiong statistics this badly.

          WHAT. THE. HELL. does your "2 months" figure have to do with anything?

          That is a stupid, meaningless, misleading, completely irrelevant figure.

          Let's put it a different way. For those many millions of people who the current system works for? ANY system, will work for and the're lives won't change at all. But for the 18,000 who DIE every year... you could add an average of FIVE YEARS to each of their lives, just beased on the numbers you provided! And I'd question the assumptions that go into those, as the difference between haveing medical care and not having it will clearly make a difference of more that five years on average if your sick. I'll bet the house that the five years estimate includes the effect of insurance on many HEALTHY people. Well OBVIOUSLY it doesn't matter to them

          But to save them from "socialism" (whateve you think that means) you will sacrifce 18,000, and try to confuse to ignorant with bogus statistics to defend your position. Unbelievable.
          Report Abuse
          • Author by Tbone Slickens (August 18, 2009 3:00 pm ET)
               
            The IoM study has plenty of flaws. Way to many to name here. So how do you come up with 18k numbers?

            IoM methodology flawed
            Report Abuse
            • Author by NiceguyEddie (August 18, 2009 3:58 pm ET)
                 
              Hey, I'm just using the best number I have. Take it or leave it, the point remains the same: people die from treatable diseases due to lack of access to health care. If it's "1" that's still 1 too many. And if it was just 1, the cost to cover that 1 would be insignificant. So you lose either way: big number = BIG PROBLEM, small number = inexpensive problem to fix.

              YOU tried to make a point that is completely pointless. "Everyone's life exp would increase by 2 months." You apparently found that significant. It's meaningless mumbo-jumbo, and YOU [should] KNOW IT. Your "2 months" point was so laughable that you are either a fool, incapable of even the slightest bit of critical thinking, or you assuemd we all were and that you could pull a fast one on us. Well... I for one am not a complete fool, and I do statistics and data analysis for both a living and a hobby. If you're going to convince me you're going to have to do WAAAAY better than the FAIL that was this attempt.
              Report Abuse
              • Author by Tbone Slickens (August 20, 2009 10:24 am ET)
                   
                I'm not making that point. The Center for Disease Control is making that point. Take it up with them. BTW where are YOU getting your Five Year life expectancy talking points?
                Report Abuse
    • Author by terrapin53 (August 18, 2009 10:06 am ET)
      2 1
      Republicans will not support any health care/insurance reform of any kind. They are obviously committed to say NO to anything Obama or the democrats want to do. Jess Sessions on Sunday pretty much said that there is no way he would support co ops. Until the dems get off their fearful a$$es and do what needs to be done and the heck with Republicans all of these intiatives will fail.
      Report Abuse
      • Author by NiceguyEddie (August 18, 2009 12:44 pm ET)
           
        Absolutely. The Republican strategy is to sabotage everything the Democrats do, and then campaign in 2010/2012 on a platform promising "Progress" after "Four/Six years of the Democrats accomplishing nothing."

        They shouldn't even be invited to the table. EVERYTHING from here out should be done without a single republican vote. Let 'em sink. They're nothing but traitorous scum selling out thier country for noting but their own personal gain.

        How anyone is fooled by them I just can't understand.
        Report Abuse
    • Author by walstib (August 18, 2009 10:40 am ET)
      5  
      The Dems need to "man-up" and just ram this down the GOP's throat and be done with it.
      Report Abuse
      • Author by Vincenzo (August 18, 2009 10:50 am ET)
        1  
        Agreed. They have wasted any leverage gained from Obama's election and are threatening to change Yes we can to Maybe we can. I think if they change tacts and use their majorities they will be rewarded by the people that gave them the majority. The dems who are letting their donations from insurance companies do the talking from them need to be put in line.
        Report Abuse
      • Author by Tbone Slickens (August 18, 2009 12:15 pm ET)
          2
        Please dems, follow this meme! Ram/Rahm it down our throats! You are the gift that keeps on giving!

        Alas, I fear you wont have the stomach for it. Weakness of the dems
        Report Abuse
        • Author by eweston8542983 (August 18, 2009 12:31 pm ET)
          1  
          Yup a continual failure to believe a neocon cares for much of anything except political and monetary dominance. No matter how much it costs us.
          Report Abuse
    • Author by MiddleLeft (August 18, 2009 11:28 am ET)
      1  
      Good call Foser. Whats wrong with that Times writer? There is nothing Obama can do to win a single senate Republican vote. Grassley has already implied that (in effect). These moves are aimed at recalcitrant dems. It will be done in the senate with 60 Democratic votes or it won't happen.
      Report Abuse
      • Author by MiddleLeft (August 18, 2009 11:57 am ET)
           
        Heck now I read that Dean says the senate will pass the bill without a public option but then "something" will be put back in during the reconciliation process. We don't even need 60 democrats in the senate to reach the goal. It only takes a majority
        Report Abuse
    • Author by neon desert (August 18, 2009 12:35 pm ET)
      1  
      Hmmm... Seems that when the "government takeover" balloon is deflated, it would take down the "socialism" basket with it, doesn't it? And the Times thinks that sounds plausible? That the republicans, in addition to voting for health care reform, will be forced to abandon their "socialism" rhetoric too?

      Yeah. Brilliant thinking there, NYT.
      Report Abuse