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Phantom Rails On The Tea Party Express

September 15, 2009 6:06 pm ET by Oliver Willis

Conservative bloggers and media continue to insist without the benefit of actual facts that there were millions of tea party protesters on the Mall last Saturday. Here's another data point that makes these claims quite inconvenient.

According to the Washington Metro Area Transportation Authority (WMATA), 437,624 people rode on the Metro Rail system on Saturday, September 12th. How does that day compare to similar Saturdays?

September 5th, 2009: 300,963 riders

August 29th, 2009: 303,997 riders

August 22th, 2009: 293,200 riders

So, was Metro ridership up on the day of the protest? Sure. but the increase in riders could at best be charitably described as modest (and surely some of those riders were participants in the National Black Family Reunion event).

By comparison the Metro ridership for President Obama's inauguration - an event where most counts put the attendee count at above 1 million - was 1,120,000. This was described by WMATA as "the highest ridership day ever in the transit authority's history".

No recent events have been described this way by the Transportation Authority.

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    • Author by The_Cat (September 15, 2009 6:16 pm ET)
      5  
      So, say 300,000 on an average Saturday, and 440,000 on 9-12. That means an extra 140,000 riders. But, since anyone who rides -in- is likely also to ride -out-, that means approximately 70,000 extra people. Split between the Black Family Reunion and the Tea Baggers, I find it completely credible that there were 70,000 people at the Tea Bag event. 2 million? Not even close.

      Mr. Willis, my hat is off to you, for having the ingenuity and curiosity to actually find a way to report the story that puts the numbers in some kind of real world context. I thank you.
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      • Author by epkklk851 (September 15, 2009 6:27 pm ET)
        3  
        My husband and I were two of those round-trip riders. I am sure that the group my husband chatted with on the way home were also two-way riders. I think your math is pretty good.
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        • Author by The_Cat (September 15, 2009 6:57 pm ET)
          1  
          Saw some of your pics, epkklk851. Thanks for going, and thanks too for sharing! :) Most of the credit for my math goes to Mr. Willis. He did the research that made my math possible.
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          • Author by epkklk851 (September 15, 2009 9:19 pm ET)
               
            I'm glad you enjoyed the pictures. I am glad I went, because I can really appreciate just how much the Right is lying about the numbers, I was there, and I saw with my own eyes.
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      • Author by Clancy (September 15, 2009 6:57 pm ET)
           
        I think it might be a bit misleading to compare to the previous few weekends, as they were during the notoriously low traffic period in DC in which most of the town shuts down and leaves for August. . . culminating with Labor Day weekend (the week before). The very same weekend the year before saw 362,773 riders on Metro Rail for Saturday, 9/13/08 (with comparably low ridership in the weeks leading up to that Saturday). I haven't done the math, but that would be approximately 75,000 "extra" riders this year.
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    • Author by HumblePie (September 15, 2009 6:26 pm ET)
      2  
      Oliver, this makes sense but you're dealing with a group of people that can't add/subtract.
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    • Author by DellDolly (September 15, 2009 6:30 pm ET)
      2  
      Last year the second Saturday in September, they had 362,773 riders. This year, about 75,000 more. But that's one way trips, so it's closer to about 40,000 more riders travelling round trip.
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    • Author by PurpleState (September 15, 2009 7:44 pm ET)
         
      My guess is that the right wing tries to spin it that more people drove to the event than took something ecologically-conscious like the METRO.

      Besides, didn't they bus a lot of people into the event? How was traffic? How many buses were at the event?
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      • Author by DellDolly (September 15, 2009 10:30 pm ET)
           
        They bused a lot of people into Inauguration, but I haven't heard of hardly anyone being bused into this event. And there's very little parking for individual's cars in the heart of government buildings in downtown Washington on weekends. There are a few thousand parking places near the Mall - that's all.
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        • Author by PurpleState (September 16, 2009 7:44 am ET)
             
          I think we had two people who attended this event, so if they can recall seeing the buses there, that might help.
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          • Author by political_left-religious_right (September 16, 2009 11:03 am ET)
               
            The trouble is, Purple, that buses tend to park some miles away and the riders do the rest via the Metro. This is how my busload got there for the big Promise Keepers event in 1997.

            In other words, the increased Metro traffic is the best indicator so far of the actual size of the event.

            Unfortunately, we'll never know the exact number, even if every single person there was counted, because we don't know how many were there to support whatever the cause was (it seems to change with every media report), and how many were there for other reasons (the Black Family Reunion, normal visitors to DC, curious observers).
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            • Author by msetty@publictransit.us (September 17, 2009 4:24 pm ET)
                 
              Based on an Australia document I downloaded, "Estimating Capacities for Pedestrian Walkways and Viewing Platforms" from 2002, applying the information therein to the case of the 9-12 marchers on Pennsylvania Avenue, I came up with a ballpark estimate of around 125,000-175,000. The Metro counts are generally consistent, given that about 40%-45% of demonstrators typically use Metro. I suspect that almost no out-of-towners use Metrobus, however.

              Email me at msetty@publictransit.us if you want a copy of this document from Melbourne.
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