The NYT mangles Obama's approval ratings; ought to post a correction
July 19, 2010 11:02 am ET by Eric Boehlert
The Times' Op-ed page devoted all kinds of space on Sunday so influential insiders could ponder the Times' question: "How Can Obama Rebound?"
See, everyone in the know understands that Obama's presidency is now officially in free-fall. How do they know? Because Beltway media insiders say so. (Simple right?) In fact, the Times Op-ed page even provided proof for why Obama's presidency need to be rescued [emphasis added]:
Though BP managed to stop the spread of oil from its broken well last week, President Obama has been able to do little to stop the drop in his public approval ratings, which now, according to a new ABC News-Washington Post poll, hover just above 40 percent.
Well, there you go. According to the latest ABC News-Washington Post poll, Obama's approval rating hovers just above 40 percent.
Except that, of course, it doesn't.
In the latest ABC News-Washington Post poll, Obama's approval rating stands at a solid 50 percent. So the Times needs to issue a correction on getting that central fact wrong.
Perhaps the Times was referring to the fact that 43 percent of people in the ABC News-Washington Post poll said they had confidence that Obama would do the right thing for the country's future. But of course, that's not what the Times referenced. It claimed Obama's "approval ratings" now hover just above 40 percent in the ABC News-Washington Post poll. But they don't. They hover at 50 percent.
Please note that last week a Bloomberg News poll put Obama's job approval rating at an even better 52 percent, which marked a slight increase from March. But for some reasons that didn't stop the Times from hosting a forum about Obama's inability to "stop the drop" in his approval ratings.
Ugh.
For the record, Real Clear Politics maintains a rolling average of Obama's approval rating based on all the latest polling data, and it currently stands at 47.6 percent. In early January, Obama's approval ratings at RCP stood at 48.2 percent. So yes, with Obama down less than one percentage point over six months, you can see why the Times devoted all sorts of column space to ponder Obama's falling approval rating, right?
Oh yeah, this morning at Gallup, Obama's approval ratings, which has been measured every day of his presidency, stands at 49 percent. And guess what? On August 18, 11 months ago, it stood at 51 percent.
Obama's approval rating? Look out below!!
Pretty d@mn well, I'd say. And the way he can press to the hoop is nothing to be sneered at either!
/snark
The issue that seems to get ignored here, I believe, is that Obama started OUT higher than many Presidents do, and had a fairly precipitous drop, and so they are all basing their faux surprise on that drop, rather than the actual changes since last summer.
Well, here's one that's hard to ignore, from Gallup. Just last summer...one year ago...Obama's approval ratings have fallen...from 60-49.
His disapproval numbers from the same period last summer have increased...from 33-44.
I'd say that looks less like rock-solid to falling like a rock.
Do you have a source for that?
In mid July, he was still at about 60% approval from Gallup - and that's because he started out so high when compared to other Presidents have in recent years. It was an artificially high starting place, due to how bad former President Bush was and how disappointed everyone was in his poor leadership!
By mid August in the Gallup poll, Obama was at 50%, and he's only slightly lower than that now.
MMFA discusses how Obama's ratings have been fairly steady for 6 months - that disproves that assertions that he is falling in the polls, which is what the NYT said was happening.
Boehlert doesn't "ignore" anything, much less the obvious! When one is talking about a pattern of polling results for the President, looking at 6 months or 9 months out of a period of 18 months is certainly fair and reasonable. Looking at only 2 weeks? That would be unfair. And demanding that we look to 12 months ago, like you did? That's unfair too, weasel - but SO typical of your behavior.