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Why this Gallup poll won't get as much attention (Hint: It's good news for Dems)

September 08, 2010 9:19 am ET by Eric Boehlert

Last week, when Gallup announced that Republicans held a ten-point lead over Democrats when respondents were asked their congressional voting preference, and that the ten-point gap (51-41%) marked an all-time height for a GOP advantage, the Beltway and right-wing media exploded with commentary.

The Gallup findings were a very big deal. (See here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here for just a handful of examples.)

But oops, this week's Gallup survey finds that the Republican ten-point "generic poll" advantage has evaporated. It's gone. Adiós. Democrats and Republicans are suddenly tied in the generic poll. (And yes, that's precisely what the latest Newsweek poll also found.)

But good luck finding the non-stop commentary and reporting in the mainstream and right-wing press about the latest Gallup results. They just don't fit the preferred storyline.

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    • Author by oscar the grouch (September 08, 2010 9:26 am ET)
      3 1
      Polls mean nothing until the first Tuesday in November (either way, one party or the other reads too much into them before the vote).
      Report Abuse
      • Author by ProgLib (September 09, 2010 3:06 pm ET)
        5  
        I don't really like to rely on polls, either. I learned my lesson a few months ago when polls were saying that Bill Halter was beating Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas for the U.S. Senate seat, yet, she ended up beating him. I was very disappointed to see the inaccuracy. I mean, it happens, but it's still hard to get over that when we were so close to having a more Progressive Senator.
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    • Author by epichuntarz (September 08, 2010 9:41 am ET)
      10  
      It's funny because yesterday, on his radio show, Hannity had Zogby, Rasmussen, etc. on there touting that 10 point generic poll as gospel and prophecy. I guarantee he won't say a word about it today.
      Report Abuse
    • Author by newzhound (September 08, 2010 9:47 am ET)
      11  
      Once again, the party in the White House is going to have a rough off-year election. That's just not news.

      Remember how the right wing nutz went crazy over the Virginia and New Jersey "mini-mid-terms?" In one state the party in the White House had last won the Governorship in the 1980's. In the other it was back in the 1970's.

      Yet these idiots immediately claimed a repudiation of Mr. Obama. As Al Gore told President Bush, "You're a rooster taking credit for the sunrise."

      Finally, be careful what you wish for. The TeaBagging fringe candidates, if elected, are for the most part amateurs (Yes, you, Sharon Angle). The internal divide within the Republican party is greater than the division between most Republicans and most Democrats. A few of the ultra radical office holders will sell out (they always do - see Gingrich, Newt). The remainder will wander around dazed by the television lights and all the attention.

      They won't get a darn thing done - paving the way nicely for Mr. Obama's re-election in 2012.
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      • Author by NiceguyEddie (September 09, 2010 4:03 pm ET)
        3  
        If only Al Gore had called George Bush a "cock" on the campaign trail, then Obama would have been his successor.

        --------------------------------------------------
        IMHO
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    • Author by ILikePizza (September 08, 2010 9:51 am ET)
      8  
      Is polling including cell phone numbers? It seems to me that there is now a large segment of the population approx. 25% that don't have traditional land lines. If this population is largely young and urban wouldn't this automatically skew polling results toward the older more conservative voters? Though I'm not young I got rid of my land line 2 years ago. I used to get called periodically to take part in a poll, I haven't received a call since? Does this even mean anything?
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      • Author by ScienceBuff (September 08, 2010 10:33 am ET)
        7  
        According to this Pew research, those who are cell phone-only are slightly less likely to be registered or politically involved. However, the cell phone-only population does tend to be significantly more liberal/Democratic. The last I've heard is that cell phone-only people are still very under represented in polls.
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      • Author by bintx (September 08, 2010 10:58 am ET)
        4  
        I don't have a land line . . . since I have to do quite a bit of car travel for my job, I needed a cell phone. I have a wireless connection for my home internet service. Saw absolutely no need for a land line any longer and rather enjoy the privacy that a cell phone affords (no one calls me unless I give them my number). Haven't had one in 5 years. I used to get calls all the time from polling companies. Never get them now.
        Report Abuse
      • Author by grmce (September 09, 2010 1:19 pm ET)
        3  
        This is a major weakness in polling, not just in the U.S., but throughout the developed world. Bearing in mind that polling is not only used for political purposes but for academic research and to inform commercial marketing it will be interesting to see how long this situation will last.

        A whole demographic is being excluded and results must be called into question.
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      • Author by tnazar (September 10, 2010 10:37 am ET)
        1 1
        It's a good point, but in this election cycle I doubt the under 30 demographic will have any impact on the outcome except that conservatives are almost guaranteed to win a number of seats and statehouses.
        Those young voters who read and post to MM are NOT typical of the younger crowd, most are either disenchanted with Obama for not being the liberal he never was or are far more interested in whatever it is that has their attention this month.
        There will come a day when these people will become a force in the electorate and by then they will have homes, a landline phone and get polled.
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    • Author by doggeddem (September 09, 2010 5:39 pm ET)
      4  
      These polls just add to the notion that the repubschmucks have gotten the American public to accept amnesia. The fact that two polls show the generic poll in a statistical tie, runs counter to the perception. In politics perception is the reality and FAUX News, et al, have continued to manufacture the horse-race scenario so that the ratings stay high. 50 Tea partiers show up with hate-filled posters and suddenly the whole country is angry.

      Democrats are in trouble but we don't need the media's help in dampening down voter enthusiasm. Repubschmucks have nearly destroyed the country's economy, with eight years of criminal negligence and suddenly we are supposed to trust them to restore economic health? I'm sorry but I don't believe in furnishing victims to a mass murderer.
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    • Author by Tbone Slickens (September 09, 2010 7:04 pm ET)
      1 7
      Yeah, but can Barry fill a room?

      Apparently not!
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    • Author by tiredofit10 (September 10, 2010 8:37 am ET)
      1  
      only pollster is really trust is Nate Silver,the rest of them will ask and frame the question to get the response that they want. all of this is pure speculation. Only poll that counts is the one on Nov 2nd.
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