WSJ misled on "maverick" McCain's popularity among Hispanics, independents

Summary: A Wall Street Journal article on Sen. John McCain's chances of winning California in the general election reported that "McCain's appeal to Hispanics is central to his strategy in the state -- especially if the Democratic nominee is Sen. [Barack] Obama, who has polled well behind Sen. [Hillary] Clinton among Hispanics there." However, the article did not mention general election polling that shows McCain significantly trailing both Obama and Clinton among California Hispanics.

In an April 8 article (subscription required), The Wall Street Journal reported of Sen. John McCain's chances of winning California in the general election: "Although many Republicans are skeptical, his advisers are convinced he has the potential to take the nation's largest state. ... McCain's appeal to Hispanics is central to his strategy in the state -- especially if the Democratic nominee is Sen. [Barack] Obama, who has polled well behind Sen. [Hillary] Clinton among Hispanics there." However, the article did not mention general election polling that shows McCain significantly trailing both Obama and Clinton among California Hispanics. Additionally, the Journal claimed that McCain "is a maverick Republican who appeals as much to independents as to Republicans" -- continuing a longstanding media practice of referring to McCain as a "maverick" despite his shift on several high-profile issues, including immigration and taxes, to align himself more closely with the base of his party. Yet contrary to the Journal's claim that McCain "appeals as much to independents as to Republicans," the percentage of independents who hold a favorable opinion of McCain is much lower than that of Republicans, according to a recent poll.

In a SurveyUSA California poll conducted March 14-16, Obama led McCain among registered Hispanic voters 62 percent to 33 percent, while Clinton led McCain 67 percent to 24 percent. In a Public Policy Institute of California poll conducted March 11-18, likely Hispanic voters favored Obama over McCain 70 percent to 20 percent, and supported Clinton over McCain 74 percent to 18 percent.

While the Journal claimed that McCain "appeals as much to independents as to Republicans," according to a CBS/New York Times poll conducted March 28-April 2, 66 percent of Republicans hold a favorable opinion of McCain, with 7 percent holding a "not favorable" opinion, whereas among independents, 35 percent hold a favorable opinion of McCain and 24 percent hold a "not favorable" opinion of him. Media Matters for America could find no poll in which McCain's favorability among independents was equal to or greater than his favorability among Republicans.

From the April 8 Wall Street Journal article, by reporter Gerald F. Seib:

Sen. John McCain is a maverick Republican who appeals as much to independents as to Republicans.

[...]

The McCain openings. In a down year for Republicans, the McCain camp is taking very seriously the effort to build a different coalition of states. The McCain campaign's regional directors met in New Mexico late last week and began plotting strategy, campaign aides say.

The two advantages Sen. McCain has over other Republican contenders is he has crossover appeal to many independents and some Democrats, and his more open stand on immigration has left him in fairly good standing with Hispanics.

In the campaign's view the McCain profile brings into play Washington and Oregon in the Northwest, as well as New Hampshire, Maine, and maybe Vermont and Connecticut in the Northeast. Those states either have a lot of independently minded voters, or have been friendly to moderate Republicans, or both.

New Jersey is another McCain target; it is home to lots of moderate Republicans and conservative Democrats who should be within Sen. McCain's reach. McCain advisers think a wide independent streak in Minnesota and Wisconsin could put those states in play, and that the McCain crossover appeal to conservative white Democrats will help put Michigan and Pennsylvania within reach.

The giant question is California. Although many Republicans are skeptical, his advisers are convinced he has the potential to take the nation's largest state, a general-election bastion for Democrats for two decades. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has shown what an independent-minded Republican can prevail in the Golden State. McCain's appeal to Hispanics is central to his strategy in the state -- especially if the Democratic nominee is Sen. Obama, who has polled well behind Sen. Clinton among Hispanics there.

—E.H.H.