WSJ's Freeman: "[T]here hasn't been any [global] warming since 1998"
November 21, 2009 2:31 pm ET
From the November 21 edition of Fox News' The Journal Editorial Report:
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"Climate scientists accused of 'manipulating global warming data'
Some of the world’s top climate scientists have been accused of manipulating data on global warming after hundreds of private emails were stolen by hackers and published online.
Published: 8:00AM GMT 21 Nov 2009"
"The scientific community would come down on me in no uncertain terms if I said the world had cooled from 1998. OK it has but it is only 7 years of data and it isn't statistically significant."
It's all right Phil. We won't tell anyone. It'll be our secret.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Satellite_Temperatures.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide-en.svg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Solar-cycle-data.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Global_Warming_Predictions.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Glacier_Mass_Balance.png
"The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate."
C'mon, travesty? Don't you remember that the "science is settled?" I don't agree with that last statement. Would you care to elaborate? Kevin's alleged answer:
"How come you do not agree with a statement that says we are no where close to knowing where energy is going or whether clouds are changing to make the planet brighter. We are not close to balancing the energy budget. The fact that we can not account for what is happening in the climate system makes any consideration of geoengineering quite hopeless as we will never be able to tell if it is successful or not! It is a travesty!"
Oh. Well then. I guess I was mistaken. I'm just going to slink away and dump my stock in Big Al's Discount Carbon Offset Emporium now. Cheers!
It can be freezing in Miami but if the South Pole Ice Cap is receding we are in deep Do-Do.
That's what we need to hear, not if its nice and cool outside your window.
Mr. News
I find it kind of funny how Global Warming stopped just about the same time as the Monica Lewinski witch hunt began.
Glad we got that figured out. Thanks Mr. Freeman for clarifying things...
Putz!
http://climate.weather.com/science/global-warming/observation.html
Fact is, we really have no clue what is going on. Climate research is one of the most unscientific "sciences" there is - a 50% margin of error in any other field would be laughed out. Yet a margin of error of many degrees when we are talking about single degree changes over a decade is somehow acceptable. Consider that as cities grow, heat on the earth will be redistributed. Cloud patterns will change. Visible pollutants - as opposes to greenhouse gases - cool the earth, rather than heat it up, yet no one takes account for this. The various theories are that greenhouse gases heat the climate, clouds will cool the earth in response to changing humidity, the dynamo will affect cosmic rays and change the atmosphere's response to various factors, the ocean operates on cycles, the sun operates on solar cycles, and all of these have valid evidence and can be tested in a lab (or just solid examples - take Mars for instance, it was wiped out by the Sun from a Earth-like atmosphere, and has its own temperature cycles, right now Mars is heating up, but no one can explain that). There is still a LOT more research to be done, the amount of information politicians and the public (and a few particularly outspoken scientists on both sides) are accepting as fact is foolish.
And even if you are right, and we don't really know how or why all those things are happening, or if its just a cycle of solar activity, or ocean currents changing...what is wrong with trying to cut down on the pollutants we produce? How and why is that a bad thing? Global warming has become less of a scientific debate as it has become an ideological debate. That is what is foolish about this.
If you got really bad heartburn every time you ate spicy foods, and wasn't sure if it was a certain food or pepper or spice that was causing it, wouldn't you start cutting down on the spicy foods all together? Or would you just keep eating spicy foods hoping your body will adapt to it eventually and hope the heartburn goes away on its own?
It shouldn't take a scientist to understand that an atmosphere that is laden with CO2 is not healthy for oxygen-breathing life forms.
I don't need a climatologist to tell me that we are heading down a path toward an unsustainable ecosystem. It isn't a question of whether we will destroy the planet, anymore, but a question of when.
We can listen to the Rushbots, the George Wills, and the other mouthpieces for unfettered capitalism, or we can plan for a longer future by being better stewards for the planet.
Simple as that.
As other cases, for instance if emitting carbon dioxide does harm the planet, then you could make the case that to some (though not all) people have been harmed and those polluting their property are in violation of property rights. This could only be claimed after damage, after a specific person has done harm, and would be a hard claim to make since it affects so many people, but (and maybe I am wrong about this, nothing like this has happened before) in theory that is what would happen. Again it is an unusual situation to be in, any call is hard to make.
So I agree, we are on an unsustainable path, but for different reasons.
The time to start preparing for a century from now was a century ago - we can only play catch up from now on. So, global climate change aside, the time is now for CO2 control, for alternative energies, and for general stewardship of a planet that is being used up.
I'm pretty convinced that you simply do not know ANYTHING.
So what are we saying about the pollution then? That it's good for the temperature changes?
Here is what we need to do: we need to reduce pollution not only for the sake of climate change, but for many things.
For cleaner drinking water.
For more stable eco-environments.
For healthier people.
People are standing in the way of this progress for what...an easier-to-earn dollar? Business? Better living through advanced technology? While that all may sound easy and beneficial, I would rather earn my money without adding to the pollution. I would rather walk or ride a bike than use a car.
Don't just look at conservation as an attempt to stop global warming/climate change; do it to save the pains the environment is going through.
And it coincides with another problem: no matter how much coal or oil you believe we have left, you certainly don't believe that it is an infinite resource, do you?
Isn't it a convenient truth that by reducing our dependence on non-renewable fuel sources we can also reduce our production of CO2? Isn't it also a convenient truth that the very thing that filters CO2 from our atmosphere also replenishes our supply of oxygen? All we have to do is put an end to the wholesale deforestation of our equatorial rainforests.
See, these are things we can know without flawed climate models. And these are things we can know will benefit us. Oh, and IF there is such a thing as global climate change (which is really pretty much a given among the overwhelming majority of climatologists, in spite of the flawed models) then we can actually have a positive influence while doing what we ought to be doing, anyway.
Another convenient truth: reducing our dependence on fossil fuels will also reduce our dependence on OPEC and Venezuela, thereby bringing an improvement on the national security front.
Win:win:win
I know this has nothing to do with MM, but was that an Office reference??
Why do I need to debate someone who thinks global warming is fabricated. So you go away and come back with facts that man-made pollution is changing the environment and not argue that is not.
There's a reason you have to reference a blog by some armchair enthusiast - it's because peer-reviewed science from credible sources do not say what you want them to.
Indeed, there are no absolute truths, no theorems in the physical world, but as I pointed out climate research is far more uncertain than other fields of science. Doing nothing is acceptable, we wouldn't want to bleed the patient more, would we?
To put it another way: We need to first determine if there even is global warming that would be damaging - that is a valid question. Indicators largely point to "yes the earth is warming" but there is reasonable doubt, as I pointed out. Next, we would need to figure out "What is causing it?" Are we causing it? Is a change in the oceans causing it? A change in the sun? Magnetic field? What? After that, can we stop it? Just because you can push a truck down a hill doesn't mean you can stop it. Even then, we need to consider, is it economical to stop it? Indications are right now that preparing for global flooding would be far, net cheaper than restraining production. Only after all that can we consider taking governmental action.
We have determined it exists. That is more than sufficient to begin to make efforts to curb the massive increases in CO2 and massive reductions of the polar ice caps. There is absolutely almost full consensus in the entire world that global warming is happening and the result of CO2 and is man-made. That is all we need to know. Even if the risk of catastrophic consequences is 1 percent, it is time to act because the risk is just too great to do nothing.
iF a doctor told you that you may or may not have cancer, would you sit back and wait to see if you have it or would you allow the doctor to take further steps to address the issue? Doing nothing, is looking possible disaster in the face and saying that the present is more important than the future. Im sorry but you are dead wrong.
It does appear that there is some hope on the horizon...chip...chip...chip...you know if Monbiot of all people is "dismayed and deeply shaken" this story has legs, more legs than an AGW cultist parade in fact. The house of cards teeters. Get out while you can.
These luddites need to get a clue.
Hell, look at what Bush did to us! There is a segment of the American people who will buy this Fake News stuff hook, line and sinker. They just haven't got the critical thinking skills.
Reason, I always get a laugh out of that. Deniers tried (ok, are still trying) to refute Global Warming by noting short intervals of cooling, so part of using "Climate Change" was dumbing it down for them , helping them to understand.
Then they think they've got a "gotcha" by pointing out that the name was changed , as if it was a CYA move, or a change in position.
It's really similar to the wingnuts confusion with the Establishment Clause. They were led to believe it prohibited favoring one denomination of Christianity over another, so some grown-ups used the "separation of church and state" phrase to simplify it for them.
Now they've been trained to point out that the "separation..." phrase is not in the Constitution.
They insist on having everything translated into stoopid for them, then think they've won by noticing this.
"The research, by Chris de Freitas, a climate scientist at the University of Auckland in New Zealand, John McLean (Melbourne) and Bob Carter (James Cook University), finds that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key indicator of global atmospheric temperatures seven months later. As an additional influence, intermittent volcanic activity injects cooling aerosols into the atmosphere and produces significant cooling"
As the science behind man-made global warming fears utterly collapses, many of the biggest promoters of the theory and environmental activists are growing increasingly desperate.
If the promoters of man-made climate fears truly believed the "debate is over" and the science is "settled", why is there such a strong impulse to shut down debate and threaten those who disagree based on credible science?
If you disagree, they call you ignorant. I have even seen websites which call for the execution of deniers of man-made global warming. It is getting worse than fundamentalist religion and is a type of religion in some respects. I really have to wonder what drives the fanaticism of it.
Yep. That is why where I live at in the Missouri and Illinois area we really had no winter here since I was a kid. Try again FREEMAN!
The melt-water lakes that have been forming on top of the Greenland ice sheet since 1997 are described, with photographs, at these URLs.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/04/080417-greenland-lakes.html
http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/series/earth-the-biography/3131/Overview#tab-Photos/4
In the documentary video, the meltwater is shown flowing into a fissure in the ice at a prodigious rate. It looks to me like about ten bathtubs-full per second. That water can't be dismissed as a figment of some unreliable computer model – it's right there to see.
The water is going somewhere. There are two possibilities.
1. It's flowing into a cavern deep in the ice sheet, and there re-freezing. In that case the total mass of ice is staying constant, but just getting more densely packed. The hollow openings are just being filled .
This is possible, but not likely. How can large hollow caverns exist beneath the crushing weight of the ice mass above?
A camera lowered into the fissure to a depth of about 200 feet (the average Greenland ice thickness is about 7000 feet) have not been able to find any caverns. The attempt to find them is displayed in the documentary.
2. The water is flowing all the way down to the bottom of the ice sheet. In that case, liquid water is changing the friction interface between the continental rock (Greenland itself) and the bottom surface of the ice.
With liquid lubricating the interface between two solid surfaces, movement of the upper solid, the ice sheet, wold be enhanced. That's the working hypothesis for why the movement of Greenland's ice has been accelerating since year 2000. There has been no deviation; every year the distance moved by a marker in the ice has been greater than the year previously.
Is it possible that this acceleration is just a coincidence with the extraction and transfer of ancient carbon from the earth's crust into the atmosphere and the seas? Yes, it's possible. But what do you think is the probability?