Media unskeptically promote "security moms" as pivotal constituency in 2004

In recent weeks, the media have accepted, largely without question, the notion of "security moms" as the constituency in the 2004 presidential election that the candidates must win over in order to prevail in November.

The syllogism the media are complicit in advancing to the benefit of Bush-Cheney '04 goes as follows: Bush outpolls Kerry on terrorism as a campaign issue; this year's "It" constituency -- "security moms" -- cares most about terrorism; therefore, Bush will likely win the support of this crucial constituency.

But there's strong evidence that the notion of the pivotal "security mom" is a myth -- one that the media appears to have unquestioningly bought into. Evidence shows that the women who fall under the demographic known as "security moms" -- white, suburban, married women with children -- are no more likely to identify the war on terror as their primary concern than are other constituencies, nor are they a "swing" group poised for persuasion by either candidate. In fact, they are and have been since the beginning of this year solidly in the Bush-Cheney camp.

According to a September 27 Washington Post-ABC News poll, so-called "security moms" are "no more likely than other voters to name the war on terrorism or Iraq as their top voting issue." The Post went on to note that "only about one in four married women with children -- 24 percent -- rated the war on terrorism as their major concern." And, as Anna Greenberg, vice president of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research Inc., has noted, Bush has throughout the campaign outpolled Kerry with the group known as "security moms" -- the 22 percent of women who are white, suburban, blue-collar and college educated women with children:

The truth is, Kerry is struggling with some women and he has struggled with them from the very beginning of this campaign. White blue collar women and white married women are conservative, lean Republican and they have supported Bush since the beginning of the year.

Noam Scheiber, senior editor of The New Republic, quoted (registration required) TIME magazine pollster Mark Schulman saying that his polling firm as been looking for the "security moms" phenomenon, but "[w]e honestly could not find much empirical evidence to support it."

Nonetheless, media outlets have advanced the notion of "security moms" as this year's swing constituency who could determine the outcome in November.

Newspapers that have recently forwarded the "security mom" spin:

The Chicago Tribune in a September 27 story:

Although polling nationally has shown Bush gradually taking the support of suburban women voters away from Kerry -- a factor known as "security moms" who care about raising their children in an atmosphere of terrorism -- the reverse is true in Illinois.

The Washington Times in a September 27 column by Frank J. Gaffney Jr.:

Suddenly, the hottest phenomenon in presidential politics is the metamorphosis of women from "soccer moms" to "security moms." ... A significant number of security moms and other women -- many of whom have reflexively voted Democratic in the past, appear to have concluded President Bush has proven a competent steward of national security in the wake of September 11.

The Orlando Sentinel in a September 26 column by Tribune Media Services syndicated columnist Kathleen Parker (her column also appears on the Heritage Foundation's "conservative news and information" website Townhall.com):

What women want, apparently, is to be safe. In post-Sept. 11 America, the group of swing voters formerly known as "soccer moms" has morphed into "security moms" -- mostly white, married women with children who worry first about national security. ... Thus far, polls show Bush leading among such women, which is causing headaches for the Kerry campaign.

The Christian Science Monitor, in a September 23 in a report titled "Why women are edging toward Bush":

A growing group of "security moms" puts national safety at the top of their list, weakening a traditionally Democratic base.

The New York Times in a September 19 column by Maureen Dowd:

The so-called security moms, who have replaced soccer moms as a desirable demographic, are now flocking to Mr. Bush over Mr. Kerry, believing he can better protect their kids from scary terrorists.

The Washington Post in a September 19 story:

Bush's strategists say he is trying to reach swing voters by showing how women benefit from his national security and economic policies, and it may be working. A few polls over the past month have shown him narrowing the gender gap that has dogged Republicans since Ronald Reagan's race in 1980. Pollsters said the change is largely because security has become a bigger issue for all voters, making "security moms" one of this election's hot categories and displacing Democrat-friendly issues such as health care and education.

CNN, MSNBC and FOX News Channel have also perpetuated the notion of "security moms:"

CNN

• Bill Schneider, CNN senior political analyst: Well, it looks like married women are very security conscious. Many of them are what we call "security moms" concerned about protecting their kids. And they see President Bush as a strong and protective figure. [American Morning, September 23]

MSNBC

• Joe Scarborough, host: [I]s John Kerry winning more votes with windsurfing crowds than with a new voting bloc? We're going to take a closer look at America's newest voting bloc, the security moms. [Scarborough Country, September 24]
• Deborah Norville, host: And although women traditionally do vote Democratic, it appears that the Bush campaign, at the moment anyway, is winning the security moms. [Deborah Norville Tonight, September 23]

FOX News Channel

• Chris Wallace, host: And what about this talk that the so- called soccer moms are being replaced by something called security moms? What's that all about?
  
  Mara Liasson, NPR national political correspondent: Well, every election is the great search for the swing group of voters. It used to be soccer moms, people who were concerned about education and health care and domestic issues. This year the theory is that women are flocking to Bush more than Kerry because they're concerned about their own safety. And they are. [FOX Broadcasting Company's FOX News Sunday, September 26]
• Sean Hannity, co-host: Is this [Kerry's] strategy ... [y]ou know, attack, attack, attack, and calling the president a liar and incompetent. You know, he's [Kerry] flip-flopped all over Iraq. Does that strategy, could it be effective in bringing some security moms over to their [Kerry/Edwards] side or bringing anybody? Could he [Kerry] -- in other words, can he bamboozle people into believing he's tough on defense when he's not, tough on intelligence when he's not? [FOX News Channel's Hannity & Colmes, September 24]

As has network television:

NBC

• Tim Russert, host: Let's look at the latest NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll and get a sense of this race. The election held today: Bush, 48; Kerry, 45; Nader, 2. ... But look at this. Married women [ages] 18 to 45: terrorism and values, 57; economy and health care; 33. The so-called security moms, David Broder -- unless John Kerry can have a gender gap, get his totals amongst women up, he's going to have a very difficult time. [Meet the Press, 9/26/04]

ABC

• Claire Shipman, ABC News senior national correspondent: But while soccer moms, that group that was so influential, as you mentioned, in the last decade as swing voters, went for Bill Clinton twice, security moms are going Republican. Now, women in general are moving to Bush. A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out shows Kerry with only a 3-point lead among women. [Good Morning America, September 23]

CBS

• CBSNews.com: However, in the first presidential election since the Sept. 11 attacks, when security moms hve replaced soccer moms, the political landscape looks less favorable for Democrats with women voters. [CBSNews.com article, September 23]

And National Public Radio (NPR):

• Scott Horsley, NPR business correspondent: Kerry argues that he can fight a tougher, smarter, more effective war on terror. So far, though, most voters say President Bush has the advantage there. Fear of terrorism has helped President Bush win more support this year among women voters, who four years ago tended to favor Al Gore. John Kerry is working to win back these so-called security moms. [Weekend Edition Saturday, September 25]
• Juan Williams, NPR senior correspondent: Boy, if you want to win the presidential race in 2004 ... I would suggest that you appeal strongly to suburban white females in battleground states, also known as security moms. [Morning Edition, September 27]