On October 17, Human Events Online political editor John Gizzi appeared during the 10 a.m. hour of MSNBC News Live to discuss his recently published lists of the “top 10 most vulnerable” Republican and Democratic members of Congress in the 2006 election. During the segment, he highlighted three incumbents from each party and explained why they qualified for his lists. But by contrast to the three Republicans cited by Gizzi, the three Democrats he named all lead in recent polls -- a fact that MSNBC anchor Contessa Brewer failed to note.

On October 10, Gizzi published his list of the "Top 10 Most Vulnerable Republican Incumbents Up in '06," followed several days later by the "Top 10 Most Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents Up in '06." During his October 17 appearance on MSNBC News Live, he discussed three of his picks from each list. On the Republican side, he highlighted Sens. Rick Santorum (PA) and Conrad Burns (MT), as well as Rep. Don Sherwood (PA). As Brewer noted with respect to Santorum and Burns, recent polls show all three of these candidates “trailing” behind their Democratic challengers:

When the discussion turned to the list of vulnerable Democratic incumbents, Gizzi highlighted Sens. Robert Menendez (NJ) and Debbie Stabenow (MI), and Rep. Melissa Bean (IL). But what Gizzi omitted -- and Brewer failed to point out -- is that recent polls show each of these lawmakers leading his or her Republican challenger, in Stabenow's case, consistently by double digits:

From the October 17 edition of MSNBC News Live:

BREWER: It's a list no Republican politician wants to be on; the list of top 10 most vulnerable seats in the midterm election. It starts with Virginia Senator George Allen of macaca-fame; then Representative John Doolittle, Steve Chabot, Rob Simmons, plus Missouri Senator Jim Talent. The top 5 has three Senators: Mike DeWine of Ohio, Conrad Burns of Montana and Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, as well as Representative John Hostettler and Don Sherwood.

John Gizzi is the political editor for Human Events, the conservative group that created the list. John, let's take a look at just a few of these now. Rick Santorum who's been trailing Democrat Bob Casey for more than a year despite a cash advantage and heavy advertising: Why?

GIZZI: Well, for one thing, Contessa, Rick Santorum is someone who does not straddle the middle; he is a conservative's conservative. What you see is what you get with him. In addition, Bob Casey has a name that's as viable as say Kennedy in Massachusetts or Bush in Texas; in other words, he is universally well known because his father was a very popular two-term governor, longtime state auditor, and Bob Casey himself has twice won statewide office; lost running for governor. The fact is, though, that Bob Casey was once the front-runner in the Democratic primary for governor and in the end fell badly against the current governor, Ed Rendell. He's good in the long run as long as you know the name and know the legacy; in the short run, when you're near the finish line, he'll stumble; he did it before he could do it again.

BREWER: All right, let's take a look at Montana and Senator Conrad Burns. He's trailing Democrat Jon Tester in most polls. There's a Jack Abramoff taint here.

GIZZI: Exactly, Contessa. You said it. The fact is that Conrad Burns, lone among senators, took six figure donation from Abramoff related clients. This has been served up regularly by the media, nationally as well as in the Big Sky country, and Conrad Burns, who's only Montana's second elected senator, since senators were popularly elected, has always won close races before. It's no surprise that he's running behind right now.

BREWER: All right, let's talk about Representative Don Sherwood, Pennsylvania's 10th district. Moral issues raised here again after it was revealed that Sherwood had an extramarital affair with a woman then who accused him of choking her; so sex and violence all in a single story.

GIZZI: Well, as that great philosopher Casey Stengel once said: “Never make predictions; especially about the future.” But it's pretty hard not to make a prediction when the incumbent congressman goes on TV to apologize for an affair but then deny he was violent with his love interest, who was not his wife.

BREWER: All right, John. We don't want to focus just on the Republicans here. I know you're going to stay with me because, really, it's not just the Republicans who have to care and worry about holding onto power. There are some Democrats right now who are worried about holding on to their seats. We're going to run through that list next.

[...]

BREWER: OK. We just looked at the Republicans in trouble this November, now it's time for the list of the 10 most vulnerable Democratic seats. First, two Southerners: John Barrow and John Spratt; then Maria Cantwell, Alan Mollohan and Debbie Stabenow. The next five include two more Southerners: Chet Edwards, Jim Marshall; plus Leonard Boswell, Robert Menendez and Melissa Bean.

OK. I'm back with John Gizzi of Human Events, the conservative group that created this list. Let's talk about Robert Menendez in New Jersey; a loss there, John, is really going to hurt the Democratic hopes for winning the Senate. Why is Menendez in trouble?

GIZZI: Well, very simply, Contessa, he's an appointed senator and the mortality rate of appointed senators is very, very dim indeed. He's running against Tom Kean Jr., son of a popular former governor and himself a state legislator. On name recognition alone and the more moderate trends in New Jersey young Kean has the advantage.

BREWER: All right, let's talk about Sen. Debbie Stabenow from Michigan. She just barely won in 2000. So why is she vulnerable in this Rust Belt state? Voted for John Kerry in 2004, you would think with the work force and the unions there in Michigan her seat would be safe.

GIZZI: Well, you'd think that, but Debbie Stabenow is no John Kerry, and in fact she won the second closest race in the country last time. In addition, for a Republican to win in Michigan, he or she has to do well in Wayne County, carry Macomb and win big in Oakland County. Sheriff Bouchard, who's taking a hard line on immigration, is from Oakland County and has been elected to the state Senate and is the top law enforcement official there in the county. He's very well positioned.

BREWER: And Melissa Bean is a Democrat in suburban Chicago. This is a district, a congressional district, that trends Republican. She won two years ago. So, now, why is she in danger of -- even though she won this seat two years ago, why is she in danger of not winning now?

GIZZI: Well very much like Debbie Stabenow in Michigan, Contessa, Melissa Bean unseated an unwary Republican who only came home when he was up for re-election. Dave McSweeney convincingly won the Republican primary, knows how to raise money and should put the district back in its normal, Republican trend.

BREWER: John Gizzi, who is the political editor with Human Events; John, thank you.

GIZZI: Thank you, Contessa.