Lambro falsely claimed N.J. Senate candidates are "running even" in the polls
SUMMARY: The Washington Times' Donald Lambro claimed that New Jersey state Sen. Thomas H. Kean Jr., a Republican, "is running even" with Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) in the 2006 New Jersey senatorial race. In fact, the most recent polling shows that Menendez is six points ahead of Kean.
In his May 4 "Commentary" column, Washington Times chief political correspondent Donald Lambro claimed that New Jersey state Sen. Thomas H. Kean Jr., a Republican, "is running even" with Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) in the 2006 New Jersey senatorial race. In fact, the most recent polling shows that Menendez is six points ahead of Kean.
From Lambro's May 4 column:
Well, you might say, these are local issues that have little or no impact on the current national political crosscurrents. Not so. Both the sales tax increase and the state's oppressive property taxes are becoming big issues in New Jersey's U.S. Senate race where state Sen. Tom Kean, the Republican candidate, is focusing on nonfederal issues just like these. And it's one of the reasons he is running even with Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez in the polls. "Kean knows President Bush isn't popular in New Jersey, and so far he has decided to focus his campaign on local issues rather than sweeping national concerns," John Fund reported in the Wall Street Journal last week.
A Quinnipiac University poll, conducted April 18-24, asked more than 1,400 registered New Jersey voters: "If the 2006 election for United States senator were being held today and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Tom Kean Jr. the Republican, for whom would you vote?" According to the poll, 40 percent said they would vote for Menendez, compared with 34 percent who would vote for Kean.
In January, Lambro cited a months-old GOP poll to falsely claim that "polls show[ed]" Kean was ahead of Menendez by 13 points in the Senate race, as Media Matters for America documented; in fact, more recent, independent polling at that time showed Menendez with a lead ranging from two to six points.
If one were to accept that Lambro's claims about the New Jersey Senate race are accurate, that would mean Kean lost a sizable 13-point poll advantage over Menendez in a mere four months -- something Lambro failed to reconcile, let alone acknowledge.
Well, I guess it's even if your counting the illegal votes that will be cast for repubs.
are never finalized until the Diebold Machines tally up the votes.
It is still the question how reliable polls are, even those taken after people voted. This was painfully shown in the 2004 election in which Kerry did it better in the polls than Bush. The question that arises in my mind is how well the polls reflect the strenght of grss-root voters, especially those of the republican party.
...there is quite a bit of info coming out that the polls in 2004 weren't actually off, they were in fact on target. Strange, I wonder how that could be?
Our taxes are going to be increased in NJ because of the Republican addiction to tax cuts on the Federal level. So Kean is going to focus on what he considers to be non-federal issues like taxes?
Then let Kean, as the Republican candidate for the Senate from New Jersey, run against his party's position towards cutting taxes. The more the Federal Government cuts taxes, the less the cities, towns and states receive from the Federal government causing them to increase their taxes.
There is no such thing as a tax cut. The tax burden is just switched from the Feds to the local governments.
You are correct. Its not a Federal Tax cut, its a tax shift. Its just a shuffle down economics thing.
As for NJ and polls for democratic senate race, the polss supposedly showed Forrester closing the gap on Corzine and in the end Corzine blew his doors off. It was an embarassment. This race will not be close. I guarantee it. Any Repub wanna put money on it let me know. Stick a fork in the Repub party in NJ for the next ten years. They are officially extinct.
Rasmussen, a historically inaccurate poll (except for 2004) done roughly at the same period as the Quinnipiac one, shows Kean ahead by 7. [link to www.rasmussenreports.com] Still, Lambro said "in the polls", which suggested more than one poll.
It is significant to note that generally MMFA publishes "margin of error" with polling data, but it is not mentioned above (maybe because applying "margin of error" would show a dead heat?)
That would be that thing that your Bush does.
I found the story lacking the "margin of error," which MMFA so eagerly uses when it works to advance the agenda. Besides, the only poll that counts is the one open in November. I agree that NJ is a Blue (one of the Bluest) State and there is always the last minute "DH" available, ala Lautenberg, if things happen to go South on the D's. Oh, and why did Toricelli abandon that race?
It doesn't matter why Torricelli left the race at this point. The point is I GUARANTEE that Kean will not win and will take all bets on that one.