Despite polls showing otherwise, media continue to assert U.K. terror arrests help Bush's approval ratings
SUMMARY: Since the recent U.K. terrorism arrests, numerous media outlets have suggested that the news would help increase President Bush's approval in the polls. In fact, the three major polls at least partially conducted since the arrests show little or no improvement in Bush's overall job approval rating.
Since the recent arrests in the United Kingdom of several suspects reportedly plotting an attack using liquid explosives on U.S.-bound international flights, numerous media outlets have suggested that the news would help lift President Bush's approval ratings, without any consideration of whether news of these arrests could actually hurt Bush or have a negligible impact on his political standing, as Media Matters for America has noted. In fact, the three major polls at least partially conducted since the arrests show little or no improvement in Bush's overall job approval rating, and in only one -- an August 12 Newsweek poll -- did approval of his handling of terrorism improve measurably. Yet some in the media continue to report the arrests as a boon to Bush, by either ignoring the contrary polling or citing poll results selectively.
During the August 15 edition of MSNBC News Live, anchor Contessa Brewer ignored polling, asserting that "the American people seem to be giving him [Bush] some of that support, because here -- while they've had a real big problem with the war in Iraq -- the terror bust happens, the president gets a bump in the polls." Nor did Fred Barnes, Weekly Standard executive editor and co-host of Fox News' The Beltway Boys, seem to bother with polls, simply stating on the August 15 edition of Fox News Live that the breakup of the alleged terrorist plot "can be a windfall ... for the president and his party." Correspondent Kathleen Koch appeared to be referring only to the Newsweek poll and ignoring other polling when she stated on the August 15 edition of CNN's Live From ... that "polls have shown that many Americans are also now, because of that foiled plot, giving high marks to the president for his handling of homeland security." And, as blogger (and Media Matters senior fellow) Duncan Black noted, her broader claim appears simply to be false when she stated: "His job approval ratings have risen as well." Also on CNN, during the August 15 edition of The Situation Room, White House correspondent Ed Henry cited the Newsweek poll to broadly assert that "the president's numbers are up." But even according to that poll, Bush's overall job-approval rating is not up significantly, and Henry ignored two other polls showing no change in Bush's job-approval ratings.
Although the Newsweek poll found "an 11-point boost since May" in approval of Bush's handling of terrorism and homeland security, up from 44 percent to 55 percent, Bush's overall job ratings in the poll went up only 3 points -- from 35 percent in May to 38 percent, within the poll's margin of error. CBS' latest poll -- conducted August 11-13 -- shows Bush's latest overall job-approval rating at 36 percent, unchanged since July, and no change in his approval rating on his handling of terrorism: According to the CBS poll, 51 percent approve of Bush's handling of terrorism, while 43 percent disapprove; the July CBS poll had found that 51 percent approved and 42 percent disapproved of Bush's handling of the war on terror. Similarly, the most recent Gallup poll (subscription required), released August 15, also showed no substantial movement in Bush's overall job approval and did not provide results on his handling of terrorism. Indeed, that poll, conducted August 7-10, indicated that Bush's overall approval rating decreased from 40 percent to 37 percent since Gallup last asked the question in July, within the poll's 3-point margin of error. Although the Gallup poll was conducted both before and after the announcement of the latest terror arrests in the United Kingdom, the poll's analysis read: "[I]nterviews conducted after the news [of the U.K. arrests] became public were only slightly more favorable to Bush than those conducted before," and "the initial indications are that" the news of the arrests "will not help much." Both the CBS and Newsweek polls were conducted after the August 10 announcement of the arrests.
Moreover, the polls showed no gain for Republicans either on the question of which party the public trusts more to handle terrorism or on the question of which party the public prefers to run Congress. The August CBS poll found that "[t]he recent terrorism threat has also had little effect" on the public's preference for Republicans in addressing terrorism concerns. While Republicans hold an 8-point advantage on the issue (42 percent to 34 percent), according to the CBS poll, the Republicans' edge has remained virtually unchanged in the past month. The Newsweek poll yielded similar results, finding that 44 percent of those polled trust Republicans more to handle terrorism, compared with the 39 percent who prefer Democrats. Newsweek also noted that Democrats have made significant gains on the issue since the last midterm elections when "the Republicans held a 23-point lead over the Democrats, according to the Oct. 24-25 NEWSWEEK Poll that year."
Democrats continue to hold an advantage when respondents are asked which party they prefer to control Congress. The Newsweek poll found that "53 percent of Americans would like to see the Democrats win control of Congress, compared to just 34 percent who want the Republicans to retain control." The percentage of those polled by Newsweek who prefer Democratic control of Congress has actually increased 1 point since May, and these numbers are similar to recent polling by other outlets conducted before the U.K. terror arrests, which have also shown the public's apparently strong preference for Democratic congressional candidates.
From the August 15 edition of MSNBC News Live:
BREWER: It was subtle, but even subtly, the president brings in the tie with the war on terror to the war in Iraq. Why does the administration keep insisting on tying these two issues together?
KEN WALSH (U.S. News & World Report White House correspondent): Well, the war in Iraq -- the Democrats have been actually pretty effective recently in separating them, in saying the war in Iraq is a separate issue from the war on terror, that whatever we did -- whatever the arguments were for getting into Iraq in the first place, the administration has extended -- overextended the military there, committed so much money, so many of our troops there, that it's hurting the war on terror. Now, the White House very vigorously disputes this. But what the president was trying to do there is to say that this is all of a piece, this is all part of his war on terror and the Democrats don't understand the extent of this -- the global reach of this war on terror.
And as you say, I think some Americans -- more and more Americans, in fact -- are wondering about the connection. And -- but the president is trying to constantly reinforce the idea that the war on terror and the war in Iraq are connected.
BREWER: But it's odd, Ken, because you know, Jay Severin, who's a conservative radio show host, was on Imus this morning, and he said he had right-wingers calling in and they were just furious, that they felt like the president was tying these two issues together again -- tying together the war in Iraq with the greater war on terror. I'm wondering, the president has brought in a lot of new advisers here over the past year or so. Are there any insiders who believe that it would be a mistake for the president to keep tying the war in Iraq with the war on terror?
WALSH: No, I think there's pretty much unanimity in this White House that he has to do that. The war on terror is one of the few areas where the president remains popular and his policies remain supported by the public. The war in Iraq is not. So, the closer that he can connect them, according to the White House theory, the more support he might get for the war in Iraq.
BREWER: And you know, the American people seem to be giving him some of that support, because here -- while they've had a real big problem with the war in Iraq -- the terror bust happens, the president gets a bump in the polls. You know, are the American people themselves, however, internally still making that connection as well?
WALSH: I think many people are. But I think there's a tremendous fatigue with the war in Iraq right now and with the war on terror. But people, I think, are willing to put up with the kind of things we've been seeing -- that you've been covering -- at airports and so on if they think it's going to do some good in protecting them. The question with Iraq is that it seems more distant from the whole notion of protecting the homeland. And that's what the president is trying to keep hammering at, trying to bring us back to the idea that, in his mind, the war on terror is in Iraq. He's keeping the bad guys -- more or less -- out, away from the country. Now that's a very disputed premise. But this is what -- a lot of what's going on in Washington at the White House this week.
From the August 15 edition of CNN's Live From ... :
KOCH: Yes, [anchor] Kyra [Phillips], the president right now is in the middle of five hours of meetings at the super-secret national counterterrorism center in Virginia, and obviously terrorism foremost on the minds of many people in the world, both in the United States and Great Britain with the foiled terror plot last week. And polls have shown that many Americans are also now, because of that foiled plot, giving high marks to the president for his handling of homeland security. His job-approval ratings have risen as well.
From the August 15 edition of Fox News' Fox News Live:
QUINN: Are we seeing a White House strategy here? The president in his comments today, his comments yesterday, any sort of a strategy to really make that security the number one issue for the coming midterm elections?
BARNES: Well, of course. I mean, this is a -- this issue is the one that was the strongest issue for Republicans and for President Bush in 2002 and 2004, and they'd love to have a repeat in 2006, particularly because almost every other issue that comes up favors the Democrats this year, so this can be a windfall through this terrorist plot that was broken up, for the president and his party. And I think they're going to try to take advantage of that.
From the August 15 edition of CNN's The Situation Room:
HENRY: Wolf, today, it was day 2 of the president's summer tour of all the national security agencies. You'll remember yesterday, he was rolling up his sleeves at the Defense and State departments. Today -- huddled for five hours at the super-secret National Counterterror Center. The point here is that with the war on terror expected to be the defining issue of the midterm elections, the president was quick to take credit with foiling this terror plot to try to take over 10 airliners headed from the U.K. to the United States, and secondly, the president is trying to drive home the point that even while it's August, with all these hot issues going on, he's working this time. He's not on vacation, unlike last summer when he took a political hit for slowly reacting to Hurricane Katrina. Take a listen to the president.
[...]
HENRY: The point here is that there's a new Newsweek poll -- 55 percent of Americans now approve of the president's handling of the war on terror, up from 44 percent in May. Of course, an 11-point increase for the president. When you look at the numbers on issues like Iraq, the president does not fare as well, but when you talk about the broader war on terror, the president's numbers are up. So, between now and November, you're going to hear both the president and vice president try to drive that home again and again.
he couldn't find his butt with two hands.
TOM KEAN, New Jersey Senate Candidate: In March, Kean arrived at a reception featuring Dick Cheney only after the vice president had left. Kean blamed Route 1 traffic between Trenton and Newark, prompting questions about whether he was avoiding an unpopular administration figure, not to mention why he didn't take the turnpike. But Kean was early by a couple of hours when Laura Bush visited, whether speeded by the first lady's less prickly profile or the smooth travel afforded by the Garden State Parkway to the Ocean County event. His reward was expected to be about $500,000 for his campaign and state Republicans. (The Record (Bergen County), 6/14/06)
Judy Baar Topinka, Illinois Candidate For Governor: One of Topinka's aides recently said to conservative columnist George Will, "We just want him (Bush) to raise money, late at night, at an undisclosed location." (Fox Special Report With Brit Hume, Fox News Network, 7/7/06)
A good one. If it were not so sad I would be laughing a whole lot harder.
Charles in NYC
California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger distanced himself from President Bush and fellow Republicans in Congress, seeking to avoid harm to his reelection effort from their declining political fortunes. Schwarzenegger challenged Bush on border security and global warming regulations. He publicly threatened to sue the Bush administration over Medicare regulations. He has tacitly sanctioned at least three other state lawsuits against the federal government. He demanded that Bush dispense more money to the state to cover the costs of disasters, immigration and welfare, and chastised Republican efforts in Congress to expand offshore oil drilling. He labeled actions by Bush and Congress as terrible, irresponsible, unacceptable and embarrassing. (Los Angeles Times, 5/19/06)
CONGRESSWOMAN THELMA DRAKE (VA-2): Congresswoman Thelma Drake, of Norfolk, Virginia, announced she had to remain in Washington for an "important vote'' on a military appropriations bill and miss President Bush's visit to her district. The bill passed by 395 votes to 0. (Daily Telegraph (London), 6/11/06)
CONGRESSMAN CURT WELDON, (PA-7): Rep. Curt Weldon, who faces perhaps his toughest challenge since his first election to the House in 1986, chose not to appear at a Bush event in Pennsylvania. He told the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday that with Bush's poll numbers so low, "there's nothing the president can do to help me." The newspaper quoted Weldon as saying: "I've got to win this by myself." (Philadelphia Inquirer, 5/24/06)
MICHAEL STEELE, Maryland Candidate For Senate: Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, a Republican who is running for the Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Paul Sarbanes, told reporters that he would "probably not" want Bush to campaign for him. Steele called party affiliation a "scarlet letter" and "an impediment...a hurdle I have to overcome." Steele also said that the GOP-controlled Congress should "just shut up and get something done. Moreover, Steele said that the Iraq war "didn't work" and "we didn't prepare for the peace," that the response to Hurricane Katrina was "a monumental failure of government," and that "there's a palpable frustration right now in the country." (The Hill, 7/27/06; Capital (Annapolis, MD), 7/26/06)
I guess polls only count when the only people polled are the people in the studio.
With the growing right wing conservative slant to cable and network news, every issue has to be placed into a conservative frame so the media organizations can stay bias in the Fox news kind of way. The anticipation of news could not be further from the reality of what is happening. Take the current terror plot; as it stands, the British has gotten this kind of bust wrong on two occasion in recent past, so all this hype about how much more effective the British is verses the Americans is just a assumption that fits with the flow of reporting this issue. “Democracy Now” is where I got the source for a lot of interesting facts concerning the British history of prosecution for its terrorist cases. Concerning the current case and actually evidence there was a considerable plot to blow up planes, the British are now complaining the US's attempt to bring this issue to the people early may of hurt their prosecution. MSNBC is reporting the following:
1.There is no liquid evidence.
2.There were no tickets bought.
3.No one had any passports.
4.What seem to an open and shut case is only a rush to give the anticipating media the half truth.
With the current media, you only need half the truth because the slant will work the story to its conservative end result; not much of a conspiracy after all but an effective way to use the media.
I know the end result of this story is that the real truth and facts will probably come out after the November elections unless the Democrats take a risk and step up to the plate and call Mr. Bush on more fear mongering and costing the American public undue financial hardship just to gain political one up man ship.
Joseph [link to readingitreal.blogspot.com]
approval rating, depending on the poll, apparently consists of fundamental Christianists and the media. No one else is on board. Using the Titanic analogy, all the aft bulkheads are flooded, and the bow is exposed.
that a large group of People polled are impressed with Bush's handling of things, and you're getting all team-spirity about the UK bust, there's a nuts and bolts angle to consider;
If it turns out, as has been reported by some reliable sources and dismissed by Fox & friends,that the US rushed this action on the plot in England, if it turns out that the case is screwed up by not waiting it out for further evidence, will BushCo take resposibility for losing another one.
That's a silly rhetorical question.They're still putting 9/11 on Clinton.
This one will be Hillery's fault.
"Two percent. That's the percentage of U.S. blacks who approve of President Bush's job performance, a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found. Blacks' current two percent approval rating of Bush is down from 19 percent a half-year ago. Why is this? Hurricane Katrina and modern communication. Millions of African Americans watched TV coverage of the post-Katrina human suffering, and they are furious about it. The pain of Katrina was borne most heavily by blacks. The mighty Karl Rove can't spin the president out of this. No amount of Rove's strategic and tactical skill can counter the televised imagery of modern-day savagery after Katrina. He and the neo-cons can only hope for a miracle to counter what the world has seen in the hurricane region. Recall the images of elderly blacks in their walkers moving painfully down the road away from their storm-ravaged homes to where? Remember black infants lacking clothing, food, shelter and water in the Big Easy? How about thousands of blacks abandoned to their own devices on the streets of New Orleans? Meanwhile, non-union Wal-Mart Stores Inc. rushed to the rescue of some of these storm victims as Uncle Sam sat on his hands."-Seth Sandronsky, Alternative Press Review 10-15-05
Could this mean a boost in Bush's approval rating? Matt Lauer has the story.
Wasnt she the one that Imus attacked , made fun of and called fat? Tucker Carlson came to her defense and Imus hung up on him?
MSNBC is so disgusting that it allows one of its employees to be ridiculed by a hatemonger like Imus, and that network treats him like he is king.
As far as Bush and approval polls? Who cares, Bushie is gone in 2 years and everyone cant wait. Hoepfully he will not destroy America too much more than he allready has.
and not allow any Bush followers to win in 2008 and bring back to cabinet positions any of these guys ( Cheney, Rumsfeld, Rice, Wolfowitz, McCain et al )
Even Bush's dog is running away from him.
I miss the "Fairness Doctrine". The days when you could "demand equal time"! Until then, a fund to create rebuttal "commercials" on the fly is what we need. Do exactly what the emails from Media Matters do. REBUT the lies and distortions bit do it on the air. Get 'em out as quickly as MM gets out these e-mailings. Which, although I appreciate Media Matters work immensely, are a classic case of preaching to the choir. I am so sick of the distorted "liberal media" I feel like Sally Bowles in "Cabaret" when she lets out that primal scream as the elevated train rattles overhead. AAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! Sick of it all, Charles in NYC
[link to www.moveon.org] where donations are being solicited to enable Moveon to continue to do exactly what you suggest here. At that site you will find numerous links to current ads that are being run by them.
I am not sure how this fits into the conspiracy theorists world at all. If Bush somehow "manufactures" these events to boost him in the polls or give him some sort of new political life; then the actual poll numbers, according to the data included in this thread, would refute that?
So why would he bother if it's all moot anyway? Or do they really help him, or don't they? Should he raise the terror level, or not?
Whew, it's hard to keep all this straight???
Politicians frequently try to manipulate their perceived image. Not all are successful as it appears to be the case these days for our hapless leader.
President Bush built up a house of cards that has since crumbled around him. He is no longer credible to anyone, but a few apparent dead-enders.
There is a price for being so brazenly deceptive. Bush is now paying it.
As much as it's the media at large heaping credit on Bush's back for a sting operation in the UK, as if W himself led the incursion team into the hideout. The media should be asking: why are there so many MORE terrorist attacks NOW than BEFORE the Iraq War? Why is the world less safe, when the ostensible reason for Iraq was to make the world safer? If not for the lack of critical journalism, the kind that used to exist once upon another presidency, Bush’s poll numbers would be in the TEENS.
Bush is like a student surrounded by doting parents and family members trying to convince the teacher that there’s a good reason for his F, so the teacher caves and gives him a D. Then the family smiles and says in concert, “See, he’s doing a heckuva job, ain’t he?”
a bump in one poll. Rove undoubtedly is grateful for small favors in view of the superb sequence of posts by Heru. Can you imagine how his ratings would have plummeted overall if Rovites in the media hadn't been flooding the air waves with "they are weak, we are strong, yet, Jesus loves me" terror messages. So, to answer your question with what seems a common sense conclusion (I have no evidence to back it up), sure they're going to continue to publicize their distorted version of every incident that can be labeled "terror-related," and whomp up the colors on the alert system to try to keep the minuscule numbers on board that are actually affected by such.
Poor Karl. Any minute I expect his spinning head to start projective vomiting pea soup as the exorcism of incompetency moves toward its inevitable conclusion.
and kisses his feet, like a good obedient dog would.
It should come as no surprise, because Contessa Brewer is just to the right of Atilla the Hun. She's Bush's lapdog and has been since she's been on the air...
Contessa Brewer had a gas ball on air, and said she didn't do it, I am sure in the middle of a Bush love fest. This happened a few months ago.