MSNBC's Brewer: PA Senate race with Dem ahead by 13 points is "tight," but TN Senate race with Republican ahead by 12 is "all but over"
On the November 5 edition of MSNBC News Live, anchor Contessa Brewer described the Pennsylvania senatorial race between incumbent Sen. Rick Santorum (R) and Democratic challenger Robert Casey Jr. as "tight" and "right down to the wire" just before citing the latest MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll showing Casey ahead of Santorum by 13 percentage points (52-39 with a +/- 4 margin of error). Yet moments later, while an onscreen graphic showed the latest Mason-Dixon/Tennessee Papers poll, which put Tennessee Republican Senate candidate Bob Corker ahead of his Democratic challenger, Rep. Harold Ford Jr., by 12 percentage points (50-38 with a +/- 4 margin of error), Brewer pronounced that race "all but over."
From the 12 p.m. ET segment of the November 5 edition of MSNBC's MSNBC News Live:
BREWER: In the meantime, on to other news of the day, and of course, we are following for you big politics, big races, and in Pennsylvania, it's tight, right down to the wire there. The latest MSNBC/McClatchy poll shows incumbent Rick Santorum still trailing his Democratic challenger, Bob Casey. Right now, Casey is ahead by 13 percentage points.
[...]
BREWER: The final four, Montana, Missouri, Virginia, and Tennessee -- well, at least it used to be. Now, the Tennessee race may be out of the mix, with polls showing a strong resurgence by Republican Bob Corker. That race looks all but over for Democratic Congressman Harold Ford. Ah, but don't count out a wild card here; let's bring in the panel.
THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION posts detailed plans for NUCLEAR WEAPONS on the "INTERNETS"?
This would, I presume, be part of the "creating our own reality" strategy, IOKIYAR variation. Or maybe it's like one of those optical illusions, but the little kid insists that one of the two lines is too longer than the other.
52 to 39 is almost a landslide. Not even close.
LIKE IS SAID THE GOP ARE GOING TOO PUT THESE FOOL RIGHT BACK INTO OFFIC, AS THE MASON POLL SHOW THE GOP ARE COMING BACK LIKE I KNEW THEY WOULD. REPUBLICANS WOULD PUT THERE PEOPLE BACK IN OFFICE EVEN IF THEY SAW THEM KILL SOMEONE ON TAPE. I WILL SAY THIS ABOUT US DEMS IF THIS HAD BEEN DEMOCRATES WHO HAD DID WHAT REPUBLICANS HAVE DONE THEY WOULD BE GONE ON TUE. LOOK FOR HAPPY FACE FROM THE RIGHT-WING MEDIA ON MON AND TUES.
"Weelllll, he jes needed killin".
another example of "THE Math".
Reminds me of when I used to get the baseball satellite feeds from New York,and those Yankee broadcasters.
If the Angels beat the Yankees by four runs, they squeaked by or stole one.
If the Yankees scored the winning run on a blooper, they dominated.
I don't mean to pick on the Yankee broadcasters. The Red Sox guys were just as bad.Har!
As a Yankee fan living in Massachusetts I'm also amused at the way scores are delivered. IF the Yankees WIN you won't hear a word about it from the sportscaster [unless begrudgingly], but IF the Yankees LOSE, we not only get copious details of the LOSS but ALSO video as well. I take it in stride;-)
This Contessa Brewer [never heard of her] is the ONLY one I've heard describe the Santorum-Casey race as "tight". And this INCLUDES the talking heads on Fox!
Is she dumb or biased? Hard call...
I would put money on the fact that this talking head is given her lines. So that makes her dumb, and the people who wrote that analysis for her are biased.
How about that "line shot" off the bat of Luis Gonzalez in 2001?
but HEY, she's REALLY HOT. I guess that's all that really matters.
... I've heard the MOST IMPORTANT statistic of all, which springs from empirical studies of all past "tight" races.
Far and away, as it comes "down to the wire" on election day, if the INCUMBENT has not risen to polling over 50% of the electorate, HE OR SHE LOSES the election.
In addition to being a proven phenomena, it makes sense. All the undecideds and all the independents, if they haven't decided that "stay the course" is a GOOD thing, coming up to election day, then they have answered their own confusion: They want CHANGE. They haven't committed to having more of the same. The don't readily see that the current guy is doing a great job for them. And so, they vote out the incumbent come election day.
So, all these "tight" races where the challenger has 47% to the incumbent's 46%, or even if the incumbent is ahead at 48% or 49% ... the calculus remains true: If the incumbent hasn't claimed 50% in the polls by election day, HE IS OUT (sure, not all the time, but it's definitely the way to bet).
(Of course, most of this record of imperical data was collected PRIOR to Diebold, which may indeed skew all future predictions.)
it is not over in Dick's mind. God will help him in the last two days. If it comes throught voter fraud, Dick will still take it because it is God's will. No matter what happens to get Dick a victory, he'll take it. But not THIS year because God doesn't like him anymore because he lies and deceives. My question is "ONLY 13 points?" It will be more and we will all be better for it.
What ended it for Dick S. is when he began calling Bob Casey--BOBBY--you see, an Italian, Catholic kid from a steel town in Pa. wouldn't do that...it would be worse.
Signed, An Italian Catholic Kid from a steel town in Pa.
Contessa, Democratic challenger for the U.S. Senate Pederson in Arizona must be in a dead heat with Republican incumbent John Kyl, since he is about 8 or 9 down in the polls there. And Jim Webb, Clair McCaskill, Sheldon Whitehouse, and John Tester must be breaking ahead with huge leads since there are polls giving them a 1 to 2 point lead.
THANK YOU. njguy93@yahoo.com
Maybe she meant "tight" like the kids are using these days. For us old timers over 30, this means "cool".
Both candidates want to attack other nations, merely because they don't like their religions. Santorum wants mushroom clouds over Tehran, Casey wants US sneak attacks by commandos on sovereign countries. Two Crusaders out to mass murder in the name of Jesus and Jerusalem.
Pennsylvania, the land of William Penn, the Quakers and the Amish, built on pacifism and religious tolerance, will go to the polls tomorrow and choose between two sociopaths who want to kill people in the name of their god. How far we have fallen.
Write-in Carl Romanelli tomorrow, Pennsylvanians. Redeem your souls and the soul of our land. Don't let these homicidal lunatics have any power to kill in our name.
You are a broken record. Why don't you go out and take your money and pour it into pacifist candidates? However, they'll never get elected since 99.9% of the population lives in the real-world and understands that pacifism, while a hopeful ideal, is never practical.
I think Ghandi would disagree with you there. He managed to oust the British with it. I am not in total disagreement with you here. I am not a pacifist. On the other hand when you include never in a statement...
When it comes to war. Military force must always be on the table. It's just a fact of life. You may be the most peaceful people in the world, but if you aren't prepared to protect yourself, those who aren't pacifist will take advantage of you. If we could magically turn off the gene or horomone or whatever that makes us war, then you'd have something. Until then, having a military option is a necessary evil.
eyeing the governship in 2010. He ran against Ed Rendell in the Democratic Primary in 2002 and lost. It wasn't exactly the most amicable parting between the two when Rendell prevailed, apparently. Maybe 2014, if a Republican gets elected in 2010 after two terms of Democrat Ed Rendell and Pennsylvanians decide to take a break for one term. Casey definitely wanted to follow in his father's footsteps and his desire to be Governor of Pennsylvania isn't gone. That being said, even though I don't live in Pennsylvania, I still want Casey to win over troglodyte Santorum.
THANK YOU. njguy93@yahoo.com