Will NBC ask Todd about prediction that Bush approval would top 50 percent by July 4?
Before the November 2006 midterm elections, NBC News political director Chuck Todd predicted several times that if the Democrats won "control of Congress" and Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) became speaker of the House, then President Bush's "approval rating will be over 50 percent by the Fourth of July next year." In fact, as of July 4, 2007, Bush's approval ratings are far below 50 percent. Indeed, a recent analysis by the weblog RealClearPolitics.com of national polls conducted between June 11 and June 28 placed Bush's average approval rating at 30.5 percent. Will NBC News question Todd about his inaccurate prediction?
Todd appears to have first made this claim during the October 27, 2006, edition of NBC's Today. In a segment on possible ramifications of the Democrats' regaining control of Congress in the midterm elections, NBC News chief White House correspondent David Gregory reported that "some analysts warn that if Democrats overreach, it will backfire." Gregory then aired a clip of Todd predicting that the "president will have a job approval rating over 50 if Nancy Pelosi's speaker of the House by the Fourth of July."
During a November 3, 2006, news briefing on the midterm elections, Todd made a nearly identical claim: "I think if Democrats get control of Congress, President Bush's approval rating will be over 50 percent by the Fourth of July next year." Todd reasoned that Democrats would "have to legislate in a way that they know Bush will sign things," and by passing immigration reform, minimum wage, and "some health care stuff that Democrats want to get through," Bush "is going to sit there, he's going to veto something every once in a while, and it's going to remind people of the power of the presidency. I think it's going to make him -- I think it's going to make him more relevant domestically and might rescue his legacy in these last two years a little bit."
Yet on July 4, with Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress and Pelosi serving as speaker, Bush's approval ratings are nowhere near as high as Todd predicted. Bush appears to have scored his highest approval ratings in a recent Rasmussen poll, which covered "the full month of June." But even in this poll, just 35 percent of respondents "approved of the way that George W. Bush performed his role as President," marking the "fourth straight monthly decline for the President" in Rasmussen polls.
Bush has fared worse in other recent national polls. A CBS News poll released June 29 found that Bush's "job approval rating slipped to 27 percent, his lowest number ever in a CBS News poll -- 3 points less than last month and 1 point below his previous low of 28 percent in January." According to CBS News, Bush's "disapproval rating is also at an all-time high of 65 percent." A June 26-27 Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll found that 31 percent approved of "the job George W. Bush is doing as president," while 60 percent indicated that they disapproved. Similarly, a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted June 22-24 found that 32 percent of respondents approved of Bush's handling of his job, while 66 percent did not.
From the October 27, 2006, edition of NBC's Today:
LEON PANETTA (former Clinton chief of staff): They will want to focus on how did this country get into that war? What -- why were the mistakes made that were made in that war?
GREGORY: But some analysts warn that if Democrats overreach, it will backfire.
TODD: The president will have a job approval rating over 50 if Nancy Pelosi's speaker of the House by the Fourth of July.
GREGORY: As for policy, what is the Democratic agenda?
From a November 3, 2006, news briefing on the elections, as released by the Foreign Press Center:
QUESTION: Thank you, Kaori Iida with NHK Japanese Public Television. The Wednesday headline, "Bush suffers his first political defeat," how will this election affect the President's last two years, especially on foreign policy, economic issues, Social Security, immigration? How is this going to affect his last two years?
TODD: Well, I come at this -- you know, there's been a lot of predictions that if Democrats get control of Congress, that means President Bush's term has ended, he's a lame duck, he's done. And I actually think just the opposite. I think the best thing to happen for his presidency and his legacy is a Democratic Congress. It will make him more relevant. It will suddenly pit him against a foil. Bush is so good as a politician when he's got something to run against and he's got something to -- somebody to fight, somebody to be against.
And if he's -- you know, if it's him versus the Democrats in Congress, he's going to win that fight. Every president does. You know, President Clinton became more relevant after Republicans took control of Congress in '94 than before it. President Reagan had a 37 percent job approval rating right during the '86 elections. After the Democrats won the Senate he's fighting Congressional Democrats again and he's vetoing things, he had an approval rating back up over 60 again.
So I think if Democrats get control of Congress, President Bush's approval rating will be over 50 percent by the Fourth of July next year. And I think that because -- first of all, he's going to get the immigration bill that he wants, because this is a bill, actually, that more Democrats support than Republicans. He's going to be signing a minimum wage bill that's going to be -- everybody's going to be happy with, that everybody's going to make themselves feel good about. He'll sign that. There's going to be some healthcare stuff that Democrats want to get through. He'll sign those things. You know, look, the Democrats have an -- they have to pass stuff, right? They have to legislate, and they're going to have to legislate in a way that they know Bush will sign things. And Bush is going to sit there, he's going to veto something every once in a while, and it's going to remind people of the power of the Presidency. I think it's going to make him -- I think it's going to make him more relevant domestically and might rescue his legacy in these last two years a little bit.
QUESTION: Joel Smith, Media 24 South Africa. Where do you think you see Karl Rove? Where has he been? And do you think he's going to have a (inaudible) this weekend.
I, along with most Americans I would presume, am sitting on the edge of my seat waiting for Mr. Todd to publicly tar and feather himself and correct his erroneous poll predictions......this is big stuff.
Hey Tommy, welcome back.
How was France?
FRANCE??? Isn't there supposed to be a boycott going on?
It was very French.........was I missed? (don't answer!)
To tell you the truth Tommy. The French called us. They said we had to take you back because you're one of us.
C'est la vie!
Welcome back Tommy, you were missed!!
I missed you tommy
Thanks Kids.......I was shown the door in France after I tried to immigrate there illegally. Deportation is a messy business.
Go easy on me for a little while please, the snails still have me slightly woozy.
Tommy, I missed you and I'm very very jealous. Not that I'm into class warfare or anything. (smile)
Hey Tommy welcome back!
Did you bring me a souvenir? ;-)
I suppose Brock will have to write a letter to NBC scolding them for allowing this enormously important statement by Chuck Todd to have not been followed up on. A nefarious Conservative biased plot no doubt!! This right-wing conspiracy perpetrated by General Electric those corporate bastards must be exposed!!
Tommy, did you bring back a copy of the Paris Business Review?
I heard tommy was able to smuggle some real fr*nch fries in 23 swallowed condoms past homeland security.
I'll bet they taste better than these crappy freedom fries we have been stuck with since BO's incredibly successful fr*nch boycott.
; )
tommy ordered escargot, they brought him the snails, and he said "why are these here?"
Hey Tommy,
sorry to hear about the escargot problems. Hope it didn't mess with your gastrointestinal too much!
I haven't posted here in quite a while, so it's a little funny to see stalwarts like Tommy still hanging around.
Tommy, how's Andrew Sullivan these days?
tommy called the waiter over and the waiter said "oui, monsieur?" and tommy said no, i can wait til i get back to my room, but what are these snails doing here?
Hey Todd (or is it Toadie?),
There's a dunce cap with your name on it.
Why don't you quit making dumbass predictions, and see if maybe you can give your viewers a balanced view of the news?
I'm gonna get killed for this, but...in context, he's saying that Bush will cooperate and sign legislation that people want (min wage, immigration), and his seeming bipartisanship will be reflected in greater approval. I don't think he's saying that Pelosi will be so bad that Bush'll look good by comparison.
IF that was what he meant it shows the same disconnect with reality. Either way I could do better than most rightwing pundits do as prophets using a magic 8 ball
i think he's saying if democrats get control of congress, then bush's approval rating will be over 50% by july 4.....wait, that's what he did say. so he missed the mark by a mile. i'm just saying....
I didn't say he was right - I just don't think he was being a partisan. He was wrong, but not for the reasons everyone here seems to think.
I have to agree with you, Jerry.
Why in God's green Earth would ANYONE think that a writer for the Weakly Standard could possibly make pro-Bush partisan statements is beyond me.
i think he is obviously saying that pelosi and the democrats will make bush look good in comparison. didn't happen.
Didn't know tarring and feathering could be a do it yourself kinda thing. How do you make sure you get that area in the middle of the back covered.
Welcome back, heard you took a vacation. Did you give it back?
Oh come on! We've only got polling data to the end of June!!! Anything could have happened in 4 DAYS!!! 15 percentage points is nothing! Bush can win back that much instantly by commuting a crony's sentence and giving the people the finger! Geez, let's have a little faith here.
Tis is American news media. The epitome of short attention span theater. Corporate devolution of our inner monkies off the savannahs and back to cackling in the trees. Well-planned, well-funded, lots of meetings and emails, very corporate. Non-stop apologists for war crimes and abuses of power. All to keep the US public as un-informed and as sheepish as possible. Truly a brutal system of mind control.
Personally, I think it would be fun if every pundit who made pretty staggering predictions were held to account. It wouldn't have to be anything more than a "Pat on the back" or a "Wave of the Finger." Why not have someone check on things, just for fun?
It would be nice for media pundits to be accountable for some of the things they say, especially when it comes to so bold a prediction as an actual increase in Bush's approval numbers. If true, Todd would have approached Joe Namath levels in my opinion.
That said, I'd still file this one in the MMFA Schadenfreude archives.
NBC is a tool of the G.E corporation, They put whatever crap pleases and serves the interest of the G.E. multinational corporation they owe no one an explanation of the lies they propagate. The fact that they get any credence at all is a tribute to the past news organization that they were.
Every report and news item that they put on the air or cable is tailored to the benefit of the corporate ownership. Hell even Jay Leno is a political hack and shill when he plays up to Arnold. If that is a bottom line profit or shaping the American public's perspective on world events and national politics does it matter?
I admire MM, but ya'll know as well as I do that the media is wholly owned and operated by multi-national corporations that owe no one a real look at the world. Propaganda is what commercial news is all about.
No argument, Mike.
All the more need for MMFA & a free internet, though.
How many times does a pundit have to be wrong in order to justify pulling his pundit's license? Or is it like T-ball, where it doesn't matter how many times you swing and miss, you still get to hit the ball off the tee and run to third base?
Come on folks, you're changing the goalposts.
He said "...if Nancy Pelosi's speaker of the House by the Fourth of July."
She was Speaker prior to the Fourth of July, so all bets are off.
Talk about your misplaced modifiers!!!!
He should have said Bushs approval rating will be higher than Congress' approval rating. He would have nailed that one.
A lot of this depends on the question. Even when congress as an institution has low approval ratings, individual congressmen tend to be given relatively high approval ratings by their constituents. That is why the House of Representatives always have 80%+ reelection rates. It would be intersting to compare an aggregate of individual congress pesons approval ratings to the president. This would also deal with an apples versus organges issue in mehdology. President Bush as person compared to congress as institution an deal with comparing pesons in the frame of Bush and specific congress persons.
Meaningless talking point you guys are beating to death. Most people think all the politicians in the world except THEIRS are corrupt and self serving. Bush is EVERYONES president, I bet a huge majority of people would place THEIR representative and Senators approval rating above Bush's. They have no feeling of connection or loyalty to those politicians who serve other people. So you are comparing apples and oranges. Compare politicians that people feel a connection to a reason to call them THEIR politicians and Bush will almost certainly be on the bottom of the barrel
Well, you know calling something a talking point doesnt make it untrue. I agree that the individual Reps have higher approval ratings than Bush but Bush can act alone and the Reps act as one entire body so I think the comparison is valid. You know the Yankees have All-Stars at every position and they still stink as a team(sorry J2). It takes a lot of skill for a government body to be less popular than this President considering his documented gaffes. But Congress managed to get there in a hurry.
Usually when I refer to a talking point I am saying someone is just repeating a meme. In this case it isnt what I mean. It is true. I am saying I hear it over and over but I dont find it a meaningful statistic as it compares politicians who people have NO connection with to a politician they DO have a connection with. Its like asking if Baseball players are overpaid then asking if THEIR teams star player is overpaid.
Clear to me that Todd (and too many others) have no clue about the nature of the 'Conservative Movement' and GW Bush. They haven't figured out yet that it ain't just Bush.
Where in hell do they get these people?
To try to answer my own question: I've believed for some time that much of today's high profile press corps come from Republican families. They seem to approach matters as though they believe that today's Republican party is normal or legitimate. They've missed that today's Republican party is warped beyond any semblance of an organization even remotely concerned with civic values. A genuine freak show. Their lineage prevents them from seeing what's been going on for the last few decades.
They could ask David Broder at the same time about his "Broder Bounce" prediction.
Tim Russert could moderate a round table of his pundit regulars analyzing their own overoptimism towards Bush.
You have to remember that NBC is trying to sell stuff to their viewers so they want to put on a program that will make people want to watch. By not self-correcting when they present people like Todd making predictions that don't come true, NBC is announcing that factually accurate news is not what they believe viewers want (whether this is true or not).
However, you would think that NBC would look at their news ratings relative to the other stations and use this as a guideline to offer what viewers want.
In other words NBC needs to "Foxify" their news. They should report that Todd was correct and that the approval ratings for Bush are at least 80%. Remember, the customer is always right.
I have to say I love these predictions. I remember accidentally recording some predictions by Dick Morris a few years ago. It is pretty funny to see just how laughably wrong these people usually are over time.
Hey, I'm no News Political Director, but even I could have figured out that regardless what the Dems in Congress did or didn't do...Dub's ratings rise and fall to the music of Iraq.