Media repeated Rove's assessment of 2008 election without noting he was wrong in 2006

In an August 13 commentary on his recent interview with Karl Rove, during which Rove announced he would resign his position as White House deputy chief of staff effective August 31, Wall Street Journal editorial page editor Paul Gigot uncritically quoted Rove's predictions that President Bush "will move back up in the polls" and that "'Iraq will be in a better place' as the surge continues." Gigot also reported Rove's assertion that the Democrats will nominate Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) -- "a tough, tenacious, fatally flawed candidate" -- as their 2008 presidential nominee and that Republicans have "a very good chance" of winning the White House in 2008. But Gigot and several others who subsequently reported these claims did not mention Rove's flawed assessment before the 2006 midterm election, when he told the media that "the math" indicated that Republicans would "keep" their majorities in the U.S. House and Senate.

In his Wall Street Journal commentary, Gigot wrote:

"He will move back up in the polls," says Mr. Rove, who interrupts my reference to Mr. Bush's 30% approval rating by saying it's heading close to "40%," and "higher than Congress."

Looking ahead, he adds, "Iraq will be in a better place" as the surge continues. Come the autumn, too, "we'll see in the battle over FISA" -- the wiretapping of foreign terrorists -- "a fissure in the Democratic Party." Also in the fall, "the budget fight will have been fought to our advantage," helping the GOP restore, through a series of presidential vetoes, its brand name on spending restraint and taxes.

As for the Democrats, "They are likely to nominate a tough, tenacious, fatally flawed candidate" by the name of Hillary Rodham Clinton. Holding the White House for a third term is always difficult given the pent-up desire for change, he says, but "I think we've got a very good chance to do so."

In an August 13 online article on Rove's announcement, Journal staff writer John D. McKinnon also reported the political assessments that Rove made during the interview with Gigot:

Mr. Rove said he expects Democrats to give the 2008 presidential nomination to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, whom he described as "a tough, tenacious, fatally flawed candidate." He also said Republicans have "a very good chance" to hold onto the White House in next year's elections.

[...]

Mr. Rove also said he expects the president's approval rating to rise again, and that conditions in Iraq will improve as the U.S. military surge continues. He said he expects Democrats to be divided this fall in the battle over warrantless wiretapping, while the budget battle -- and a series of presidential vetoes -- should help Republicans gain an edge on spending restraint and taxes.

But neither Gigot nor McKinnon noted that Rove wrongly predicted the results of the last election. In an October 18, 2006, article headlined, "Rove foresees GOP victory," The Washington Times quoted Rove as saying: "I'm confident we're going to keep the Senate; I'm confident we're going to keep the House." In an October 24, 2006, interview with Robert Siegel, senior host of National Public Radio's All Things Considered, Rove similarly said the Republicans would maintain a majority in the House and Senate:

ROVE: I'm looking at 68 polls a week for candidates for the US House and US Senate, and Governor and you may be looking at 4-5 public polls a week that talk attitudes nationally.

SIEGEL: I don't want to have you to call races --

ROVE: I'm looking at all of these Robert and adding them up. I add up to a Republican Senate and Republican House. You may end up with a different math but you are entitled to your math and I'm entitled to the math.

SIEGEL: I don't know if we're entitled to a different math but your --

ROVE: I said the math.

The Democrats ultimately won 30 House seats and six Senate seats, thus regaining control of both chambers of Congress.

During the 2000 presidential race, Rove also made electoral predictions that proved wrong, as Media Matters for America noted. Indeed, Rove predicted that Bush, then the governor of Texas, would win 320 electoral votes, according to The St. Petersburg Times. According to a November 6, 2000, Houston Chronicle article, Rove also predicted that "Bush will get about 50 percent of the popular vote, with [Vice President Al] Gore at about 45 percent." The article went on to report that "Rove discounted the much-discussed possibility that Gore could win the Electoral College while losing the national popular vote to Bush, a scenario that has not occurred since 1888." The Chronicle quoted Rove responding, "You had a weird set of political dynamics (in 1888) that are not repeatable in modern America." In fact, the election was split, and Bush did not receive 50 percent of the popular vote or garner 320 electoral votes; Gore won 48.38 percent of the popular vote and Bush 47.87 percent, while Bush received 271 electoral votes to Gore's 266.

On August 13, other news outlets repeated Rove's forecasts on Bush's approval rating and the Iraq war, and his assessment of the 2008 presidential election, without noting his previous incorrect predictions:

• The New York Times reported: "In his exit interview today, which was with the editorial page editor of The Wall Street Journal, Paul Gigot, Mr. Rove had a parting shot for his political nemeses, telling Mr. Gigot that he believed Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton would be the Democratic nominee but called her a 'tough, tenacious, fatally flawed candidate,' and predicted a Republican victory in the 2008 presidential race. It is the sort of political boasting that had become Mr. Rove's hallmark."

• The Washington Post similarly reported: "Rove told Gigot that he remains confident Bush will recover politically despite his low approval ratings. 'He will move back up in the polls,' Rove said. And he said Republicans could still retain the White House next year. The Democrats are likely to nominate Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), 'a tough, tenacious, fatally flawed candidate,' he said, but Republicans have 'a very good chance' of beating her."

• On CBS' The Early Show, CBS News White House correspondent Bill Plante stated: "Rove also tells The Wall Street Journal that he expects Hillary Clinton to be the candidate for the Democrats this coming year, but he says she's fatally flawed and thinks Republicans can still win."

• On ABC's Good Morning America, anchor Diane Sawyer reported: "And he says this by the way, of the campaign -- the presidential campaign ahead. He said the Democrats, quote, '[T]hey are likely to nominate a tough, tenacious, fatally flawed candidate by the name of Hillary Rodham Clinton.' Though he says, 'I think the Republicans have a very good chance to hold onto the White House.' "

• And in an interview with MSNBC host Chris Matthews on NBC's Today, NBC News chief White House correspondent David Gregory said: "And [Rove] says Hillary Clinton's going to be the Democrats' nominee. He calls her fatally flawed."

From the August 13 edition of CBS' The Early Show:

PLANTE: Rove also tells The Wall Street Journal that he expects Hillary Clinton to be the candidate for the Democrats this coming year, but he says she's fatally flawed and thinks Republicans can still win -- Harry.

From the August 13 edition of ABC's Good Morning America:

SAWYER: And he says this by the way, of the campaign -- the presidential campaign ahead. He said the Democrats, quote, "[T]hey are likely to nominate a tough, tenacious, fatally flawed candidate by the name of Hillary Rodham Clinton." Though he says, "I think the Republicans have a very good chance to hold onto the White House.

What about those words about Senator Clinton?

GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS (ABC News chief Washington correspondent): Fascinating. I think this is the consensus view in the White House, including President Bush. They all view Hillary Clinton as the strongest Democratic candidate, the most experienced. They also believe that she is such a polarizing figure that she could give Republicans a chance of winning the White House if she's nominated.

From the August 13 edition of NBC's Today:

MATTHEWS: Look at how many people he brought to the polls in 2004 that never voted in their lives before. Look at what he did in Ohio, and the way he held things together there and won that state. He's a smart guy -- a big loss for the White House.

GREGORY: And he says Hillary Clinton's going to be the Democrats' nominee. He calls her fatally flawed.

MATTHEWS: Well, we'll see. He may be right, he may be wrong. That's why we cover these elections.