NBC, Wall Street Journal reported Petraeus claim of reduced violence without noting contrary evidence

In their coverage of Gen. David H. Petraeus' September 10 testimony before the House Foreign Affairs and Armed Services committees, NBC's Nightly News and The Wall Street Journal reported without challenge statistics Petraeus presented to support his claim that the U.S. troop escalation in Iraq has been successful in lowering violence in Iraq. These media outlets did not note that Petraeus' statistics regarding civilian casualties and sectarian violence differ from the findings in two recent congressionally mandated reports. Further, when asked about Petraeus' statistics about a decrease in sectarian violence in Baghdad, Comptroller General David Walker, the top official at the Government Accountability Office (GAO), testified on September 4 that "there are several different sources within the administration on [sectarian] violence, and those sources do not agree." In addition, USA Today reported that the GAO report "mostly agree[s with Petraeus] that security has improved in Iraq" despite publishing a separate chart noting that the GAO report "could not determine whether sectarian violence was down."

Petraeus testified that "the overall number of security incidents in Iraq has declined in eight of the past 12 weeks, with the number of incidents in the last two weeks at the lowest level seen since June 2006." Petreaus also claimed that "[c]oalition and Iraqi operations have helped reduce ethno-sectarian violence as well, bringing down the number of ethno-sectarian deaths substantially in Baghdad and across Iraq since the height of the sectarian violence last December. The number of overall civilian deaths has also declined during this period, although the numbers in each area are still at troubling levels."

However, the GAO, which was required to produce a report by September 1 by the same law that mandated Petraeus' September testimony, concluded, "The average number of daily attacks against civilians remained about the same over the last six months." The GAO also reported that although "[o]verall attacks declined in July compared to June," the decrease in July was "largely due to a decrease in attacks on coalition forces rather than civilians," and "[e]nemy initiated attacks have increased around major religious and political events." Similarly, the Independent Commission on the Security Forces of Iraq -- headed by retired Gen. James L. Jones and also mandated by statute -- reported: "While violence has recently declined sharply in the Sunni-dominated Anbar province -- the former stronghold of the insurgency -- attacks have risen in Diyala, Balad, Basra, and Amarah. Violence remains endemic in Baghdad, despite measurable gains made since the implementation of Fardh al-Qanoon (the Baghdad Security Plan) in February 2007 by Coalition and Iraqi forces."

The GAO also assessed that the benchmark calling for "[r]educing the level of sectarian violence in Iraq and eliminating militia control of local security" had been "not met." The GAO reported:

While it is not clear if sectarian violence has been reduced, militia control over security forces has not been eliminated and remains a serious problem in Baghdad and other areas of Iraq.

[...]

GAO cannot determine whether sectarian violence in Iraq has been reduced because measuring such violence requires understanding the perpetrator's intent, which may not be known. The number of attacks targeting civilians and population displacement resulting from sectarian violence may serve as additional indicators. For example, as displayed in figure 5, the average number of daily attacks against civilians remained about the same over the last six months. The decrease in total average daily attacks in July is largely due to a decrease in attacks on coalition forces rather than civilians.

While overall attacks declined in July compared with June, levels of violence remain high. Enemy initiated attacks have increased around major religious and political events, including Ramadan and elections.5 For 2007, Ramadan is scheduled to begin in mid-September.

The GAO determined that the Iraqis had "not met" this benchmark because "there was no clear and reliable evidence that the level of sectarian violence was reduced and that militia control of local security was eliminated."

Additionally, during a September 4 hearing on the GAO report, Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) stated that "the data in August would, I think, be very clear about a reduction in violence. General Petraeus has those charts that they show the hot spots in red -- in Baghdad area we're talking about now." Comptroller General Walker responded: "I don't know what General Petraeus is giving you. I don't know which source he's using. But part of the problem that we had in reaching a conclusion about sectarian violence is there are multiple sources showing different levels of violence with different trends."

The commission headed by Jones found:

Relatively homogenous areas such as Anbar and the Kurdish provinces seem to be moving rapidly toward establishing provincial security. However, ethnically and religiously mixed areas such as Baghdad and its ring cities continue to experience violence and intense sectarian activity. Even some of Iraq's most homogenous Shia areas in the southern part of the country are seeing rising levels of intra-Shia militia violence.

In contrast with those media outlets that did not challenge Petraeus' figures, The Washington Post reported that "experts within and outside the government contend that some of the statistics employed by Petraeus are based on questionable methodology. One senior intelligence official in Washington has noted that Iraqis fatally shot through the back of the head are considered victims of sectarian attacks, while those shot in the front are deemed victims of ordinary crime."

Also, McClatchy Newspapers reported that "[a] chart displayed by Army Gen. David Petraeus that purported to show the decline in sectarian violence in Baghdad between December and August made no effort to show that the ethnic character of many of the neighborhoods had changed in that same period from majority Sunni Muslim or mixed to majority Shiite Muslim." According to McClatchy, "since the troop surge began the pace by which Iraqis were abandoning their homes in search of safety had increased. They didn't mention that 86 percent of Iraqis who've fled their homes said they'd been targeted because of their sect, according to the International Organization for Migration." McClatchy also reported that Petraeus's claims about a reduction in sectarian violence appear to be cherry-picked. From the September 10 McClatchy article:

Petraeus also didn't highlight the fact that his charts showed that "ethno-sectarian" deaths in August, down from July, were still higher than in June, and he didn't explain why the greatest drop in such deaths, which peaked in December, occurred between January and February, before the surge began.

Yet the Nightly News and the Journal reported Petraeus' statistics about sectarian violence and civilian deaths, which he cited to back up his claims about the success of the troop escalation, without mentioning the GAO or Jones commission reports or other previous news reports on the same subject differ with or contradict Petraeus' claims:

• In the September 10 broadcast of NBC's Nightly News, NBC News chief Pentagon correspondent Jim Miklaszewski reported only that "[u]sing a series of charts, Petraeus testified that the current troop escalation has brought down overall violence in Iraq to its lowest level in more than a year. Because of that, Petraeus predicted he could reduce the number of American forces in Iraq by at least one combat brigade by Christmas."

• A September 11 Wall Street Journal article (subscription required) uncritically reported that during his House testimony, Petraeus "documented his views with charts showing big drops in the number of roadside bombs, suicide car bombs and Iraqi civilian deaths."

Moreover, a September 11 USA Today article noted that Petraeus said that "[t]he increased troop levels have succeeded in reducing violence." The article added that "[o]ther recent studies, including a report last week by the Government Accountability Office (GAO), mostly agree that security has improved in Iraq," despite a separate chart USA Today published noting that the GAO report "said it could not determine whether sectarian violence was down. It noted that overall violence had declined from June to July but remained high."

From the September 10 edition of NBC's Nightly News with Brian Williams:

MIKLASZEWSKI: Using a series of charts, Petraeus testified that the current surge has brought down overall violence in Iraq to its lowest level in more than a year. Because of that, Petraeus predicted he could reduce the number of American forces in Iraq by at least one combat brigade by Christmas. And a total of five brigades, or about 30,000 troops, within a year.

PETRAEUS: I believe that we will be able to reduce our forces to the pre-surge level of brigade combat teams by next summer without jeopardizing the security gains that we have fought so hard to achieve.

MIKLASZEWSKI: For Democrats, it's too little, too late.

REP. TOM LANTOS (D-CA): We need to send Maliki's government a strong message, loud and clear. Removing a brigade is nothing but a political whisper. It is time to go and to go now.