MSNBC labeled global warming skeptic Gray a "top meteorologist"
SUMMARY: MSNBC Live hosts Mika Brzezinski and Contessa Brewer each described as a "top meteorologist" William M. Gray, who has stated that global warming "is one of the greatest hoaxes ever perpetrated on the American people." Both also noted Gray's claim that rising temperatures "are simply part of a natural cycle," but neither noted that the overwhelming majority of scientists disagree with that assertion and have concluded that global climate change is caused by human activity.
During the 10 a.m. and 11 a.m. ET hours of MSNBC Live on October 15, hosts Mika Brzezinski and Contessa Brewer, respectively, described as a "top meteorologist" William M. Gray, professor emeritus of atmospheric science at Colorado State University, who has stated that global warming "is one of the greatest hoaxes ever perpetrated on the American people." Both Brzezinski and Brewer then noted that Gray "is slamming [former Vice President] Al Gore" and quoted Gray's remarks at the University of North Carolina, where he reportedly said that "[w]e're brainwashing our children" with information about global warming. Both Brzezinski and Brewer noted Gray's claim that rising temperatures "are simply part of a natural cycle," but neither noted that the overwhelming majority of scientists disagree with Gray's claim and agree that global climate change is caused by human activity, as Media Matters for America has documented. The blog Think Progress also noted MSNBC's coverage of Gray's comments.
On April 26, 2006, RealClimate.org, which describes itself as "a commentary site on climate science by working climate scientists for the interested public and journalists," responded to a paper written by Gray by detailing "the fundamental misconceptions on the physics of climate that underlie most of Gray's pronouncements on climate change and its causes" and "the gaping flaws" in his "scientific argument." A June 11, 2006, article in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that Judith A. Curry, chair of Georgia Tech's School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, said that "Gray's message that global warming is a hoax is being heard because of his media connections, but she [Curry] points out he has not published any research to back it up." The article quoted Curry saying: "His ideas on global warming are not taken seriously in scientific circles." Additionally, a May 28, 2006, Washington Post Magazine article by Joel Achenbach reported that Gray "concede[d] that he hasn't published the idea [his theory about recent warming trends] in any peer-reviewed journal." Achenbach also noted that Gray's rejection of climate models puts him "increasingly on the fringe" in the field of meteorology. When Achenbach "ask[ed] Gray who his intellectual soul mates are regarding global warming," Gray responded, "I have nobody really to talk to about this stuff.'" In the article, Gray was quoted as saying, "Gore believed in global warming almost as much as Hitler believed there was something wrong with the Jews."
Further, neither Brzezinski nor Brewer noted that United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change disagrees with Gray's claim that rising temperatures "are simply part of a natural cycle." Brewer aired Gray's comments before noting that "Gore shared the Nobel Peace Prize with the chairman of a U.N. panel made up of 2,000 scientists and experts." However, Brewer described the U.N. panel as simply "also studying the human race's effect on climate change" without noting the panel's recent conclusions that the evidence that the earth's climate is warming is "unequivocal" and that most of the observed warming is due to human influences.
From the 10 a.m. ET hour of MSNBC Live on October 15:
BRZEZINSKI: One of the world's top meteorologists is slamming Al Gore and the claim that humans contribute to global warming. Every year, Dr. William Gray releases a hurricane forecast. He believes warming temperatures are simply part of a natural cycle.
Dr. Gray says, quote, "We're brainwashing our children. They're going to the Gore movie and being fed all this. It's ridiculous. We'll look back on all of this in 10 or 15 years and realize how foolish it was." Well, so far, no comment from Al Gore.
While we're at it, hey, Jackie, where are we on Dr. Gray's hurricane predictions?
JACKIE MERETSKY (meteorologist): He certainly gave An Inconvenient Truth the cold shoulder.
BRZEZINSKI: He sure did.
MERETSKY: Definitely reminding people that apparently there is a debate on some of the issues related to global warming. So his numbers, Mika, not too far off thus far. He came along and downgraded some of the numbers in October, saying we'd have 17 named storms. We've had 14, so if his numbers are right, that means we'll get another three storm systems.
We've had seven -- he said -- predicted seven hurricanes in October, and thus far, we have had four. So, hurricane season takes us till the end of November, November 30th. We still have six weeks of potential activity. So his numbers thus far are fairly close, but let's not forget what happened last year, Mika, when everyone predicted a lot more hurricane activity than what actually happened.
BRZEZINSKI: Yeah. But his predictions not too bad at this point.
MERETSKY: Not too bad at this point.
BRZEZINSKI: OK.
MERETSKY: Of course, we don't want any more named storm systems.
BRZEZINSKI: No, we don't. Jackie, thank you very much.
From the 11 a.m. ET hour of MSNBC Live on October 15:
BREWER: All right. We want to show you first a top meteorologist who is slamming Al Gore for promoting what he calls the ridiculous claim that humans are responsible for global warming. Dr. William Gray says the temperature increase has been minor. He claims warming is just part of a natural cycle, and he told a lecture crowd at the University of North Carolina, quote, "We're brainwashing our children. They're going to the Gore movie and being fed all this. It's ridiculous. We'll look back on all of this in 10 or 15 years and realize how foolish it was."
Now, Al Gore has not commented on Gray's remarks. It should be noted that Gore shared the Nobel Peace Prize with the chairman of a U.N. panel made up of 2,000 scientists and experts also studying the human race's effect on climate change.















Yeah, love the way you reich wing christians mocked Al Gore for his Nobel because you don't agree. Hope you are OK if I mock back whenever y'all get any recognition, cause that's the world you created. Reich back at ya!
Yeah, even Das Krauthammer was bellyaching about the Nobel Prize, denouncing it as irrelevant because of Gore's (and others') recognition...but, funny, he didn't mention his soulmate Kissinger in the same way.
IOKIYAR indeed.
Well, considering Gore's role in the genocide in Palestine, one must ask why he got a peace prize. I've seen him holding hands with Benjamin "Bulldozer Bibi" Netanyahu. Gore's not much of a peace-monger, his political career saw him involved in a lot of death and destruction.
REDKING:
Do you have ANY baseline? For instance, could you approve the actions the USA took in prosecuting WWII? Certainly, there was much "collateral damage" in that war, lots of violence, and many many deaths. Do you condemn America's participation?
You seem a peace purist, and that's OK, but we Liberals who prefer measured responses to "preemptive war" understand that sometimes self defense is unavoidable.
If you're wishing to win over hearts and minds, we need to know if you EVER think that a nation should involve its military. You condemn Gore for just being in office when some military actions took place, so you seem to have zero-tolerance for anything except a Ghandi-like pacifism.
Do you turn the other cheek EVERY TIME, or is there some point at which you would ever take a stand?
Let's ask the three million Palestinians dying in the ghettos and slums of the occupied Territories if we're supposed to give Al Gore a break for his unconditional support of a brutal racist regime that has been crushing their lives. I wonder if they would give him a pass for simply being a Democrat, like so many of you do.
By the way, his "greenness" is totally hypocritical. He's backed many the environmentally-destructive bill in his Senate career and was the FIRST to say we would not sign up to Kyoto. Gore's a two-faced LIAR and not the hero he tries to sell to the masses. Typical politician.
And yet, he could assume the office of the presidency and bring progressive policies forward; whereas, you, the eternal jackass would stand on the sidelines and bray and never get a thing accomplished.
No, he would assume the presidency and forward CONSERVATIVE agendas, like the Drug War, outsourcing our jobs, starving Iraqis and Palestinians, and all the other evil things BOTH parties are firmly committed to. Gore is NOT a liberal!
There are few saints in public office. I doubt very much that you are one. In fact, since you feel free to criticise Carter and Gore, I suggest that YOU run for public office and put your money where your mouth is.
There's non-killing-foreign-children folk like Kucinich and Gravel out there and Cindy Sheehan will be running soon....but I'm sure you will vote for the mainstream Dems and claim those others are "unelectable" and keep putting the conservative Dems back into power, coming up with excuses for them as they kill people.
And I would run for local office if my job would allow me the time, but it don't. Night shift doesn't work well with a township supervisor position.
Nifty. You can snipe and demonize without consequence. Try organizing on even a small scale, and you might discover it's like herding cats. Running a country may be harder for Gravel than he thinks. And Ralph Nader would never get a single thing done unless by executive decree. He'd only be effective if he was a king.
Like it or not, we have a democracy; our leadership will have to work well with others
So you reject all liberal alternatives and justify voting for right-wing Democrats. That makes you a conservative. You vote for the politicians that KILL Palestinian and Iraqi children, I don't. But I guess it's my fault somehow, right?
Another conservative Democrat exposed.
Broken record. You stand on the right side of history, EXCEPT for your fundamentalist-style judgment of people who vote differently than you, as if that was the absolute calculation of a man's soul.
As our voting system now stands, you help to elect people like Bush/Cheney. (It's hard to argue with simple math) I suggest you put some energy into run-off voting for your state. Good luck.
Amusing.
Dr. William Gray is a lettered scientist with a long and distinguished record is the field of Meteorology specializing in the study of tropical storms.
Al Gore is a lying politician who once claimed he had initiated the internet. "During my service in the United States Congress, I took the initiative in creating the Internet" and has since produced and distributed a distorted and inaccurate scare movie intended to frighten people into accepting his vision socialist utopia.
That the Nobel committee would award a prize to such a charlatan is shocking. That you and the rest of these libefties here would applaud this award while at the same time sneering at Dr. Gray comes as no surprise to anyone aquainted with your distorted perspective.
The debate is over, because if it wasn't, the "progressives" who are trying to foist this scare campaign on the unwary would be crushed, just as they were at this debate. Listen for yourself if you've the intestinal fortitude for it.
You know, if you're going to smear Gore, you might want to avoid resorting to one of the dumbest, most easily debunked right-wing lies out there. Read the quote in context, what he said was absolutely true. Apparently unbeknown to you, the internet was created through public initiative via DARPA and the NSF. Gore was indeed one of those who took the initiative in funding it.
And Gray is a "lettered scientist". So what? So are the overwhelming majority of his critics. So is Peter Deusburg, he was elected to the NAS too, but he manages to endorse the crankery of HIV/AIDS denial. Gray has, as mentioned in the article, not subjected his claims to peer review. That's the tried and true creationist route. His authority on the matter is non-existent.
"That the Nobel committee would award a prize to such a charlatan is shocking."
Yes I'm sure it's a shock to you that not everyone has the micro-brain of a grasshopper such as you do.
And I do apologize to grasshoppers everywhere for that.
Here's a different take on your hero Gray and other climate skeptics from Jack Sparrow at Logical Science. I especially like the YouTube video halfway down the page where Barbara Boxer rips him a new one over his credentials as a climate scientist. The great William Gray, slapped around by a girl (who doesn't have a PhD and is not published in peer reviewed journals). Pathetic.
nl207 posts that debate and then assures us that the human cause proponents were crushed, no facts, we just have to take his word for it.
NL 207
....and would you explain to me, oh kownledgeable one, why the glacial meltdown in Greenland is occuring at a more excelerated pace than at any time, EVER!!!....or why we even concern ourselves with the greenhouse effect because of all the forest being destroyed.....or is that just a natural effect that just occurs????.....
....could it be that Dr. Gray is nothing more than a "weatherperson" HACK who can't get the prediction of weather an more accurately than 50% of the time....hey, NL, is is gonna be partly sunny or partly cloudy today, huh, you pinhead.
That is because it actually has been cooling in Greenland for 5 decades from the 1950s to 2000, a strong negative correlation with carbon dioxide. Even today, it is less warm than it was in the 1930-1940s there. The changes in Greenland are perfectly natural associated with a 60-70 year cycle in the Atlantic called the Atlantic Multidecada Oscillation. When the Atlantic is in the warm phase, there are more hurricanes as Dr Gray says and Greenland warms and the ice there melts along the edges and in the arctic near Siberia. The AMO changed in 1995. You can see for yourself the Greenland temperatures at Hansen's data site http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=431042500000&data_set=1&num_neighbors=1.
Oh and one more thing, Bill Gray has an outstanding record for hurricane foreacsting, AND he does not stand along all the hurricane forecasters and former heads otf the National Hurricane center agree with Bill and not with the pretend experts from the Universities who never made a forecast in their lives nor ever really looked at the data, all the data with an open mind. I think the only pinhead is the one who you see when you brush your teeth.
SAVE DEMOCRACY, VOTE FOR A DEMOCRAT!!
I care not if the oil companies and auto industry can find detractors to global warming, I care not if there is stil doubt.
Why care if it's a myth or not?? What we are talking about is finding clean burning sources of fuel that benefits all in the end whether global warming is the issue or not.
Clean Water, Clean Air, an enviroment that our future generations may thrive in, a state of mind, and governance that protects, and preserves the natural resources of our nation, and the globe for our children and their's!
If Mr. Gore and the vast majority of the world's scientist turn out to be right, well we would have served our heritage right, WIN, WIN.
Is that so hard for the right-wing to absorb??
Happy Thoughts;
Dan Grady
The right-wingers are in a tizzy because of Gores' win. It's comical and sad.
The right wing is beside themselves, i love watching them attempt to smear Gore,makes them look so pathetic and silly.
"Gore believed in global warming almost as much as Hitler believed there was something wrong with the Jews."
So, in essence, we can take the amount of "belief" in global warming that it would take to enact a final solution of hauling global warming skeptics to the gas chambers...
then back it off just a little, and you'll have Al Gore. </sarc>
What a nitwit.
I guess they can't even do basic math much less understand something that is so complicated (Earth climate) it takes a supercomputer to model it.
"So his numbers, Mika, not too far off thus far ... We've had seven -- he said -- predicted seven hurricanes in October, and thus far, we have had four. "
So off by about 50%, roughly.
Hate Gore, must destroy messenger, must hate anybody who agrees with Gore, GRRR GRRR grrr....
MMFA: The slight of hand that you pulled off with this headline is a joke. You imply that Grey is not a Top Meteorologist, when in fact he is.
Your only assertion that he is not a Top Meteorologist is that you make false statements made from the IPCC report that most scientists disagree with him.
In fact, many scientists had to sue to have their names removed and they were only asked to agree with their own sections.
1st weiner to defend fox! ding ding ding! we have the weiner of the day, folks!
That's all you've got, you stupid beagle? ;-)
Why is it so hard to tolerate opposing viewpoints? MMFA is disputing whether or not he is atop meteorologist? Must be a slow news day..
Anyone that disagrees with Gore is an idiot, right? Anyone that disagrees with Gore is a radical, right?
Puh-lease.
Putting words in my mouth again! See, I don't have a problem with disagreement. I have a huge problem with factless disagreement. This guy ain't published, he isn't reviewed by his peers, he's definitely a minority opinion. Opinion being the key statement here. Where are his climate models? His historical models? His research? Let me see that stuff and decide for myself, cause opinions are like @ssholes, everyone's got one.
You are now my favorite fire hydrant!
I've always wanted to be a fire hydrant.
I don't have any data on the man other than what I can find at his university. He is a pioneer in his field, I'd like to see the stats he cited at his speech where he dissed Gore.
From the article: "He cited statistics showing there were 101 hurricanes from 1900 to 1949, in a period of cooler global temperatures, compared to 83 from 1957 to 2006 when the earth warmed."
I also like his quote: ""It bothers me that my fellow scientists are not speaking out against something they know is wrong," he said. "But they also know that they'd never get any grants if they spoke out. I don't care about grants.""
Think about it this way... if Bush and Cheney are generating war activity to make money for Halliburton, why is it impossible to theorize that Gore, although well intended, may be creating his own money trail?
Follow the money. Follow the money.
and gore has gotten the vast majority of climate scientists to go along with the money making scheme? it is the energy industry that's offering the money to deny warming.
the worldwide number of intense hurricanes, category 4 and 5, doubled from 1970 to 2004. that does not even include the catastrophic 2005 season. see link
http://www.livescience.com/environment/050915_more_hurricanes.html
Your story is two years old. We've barely had a whimper of a hurricane season in our hemisphere for two straight years despite dire predictions.
that would be incorrect. 2006 was an average year, because of the el nino effect, this year was the first recorded time that two category 5 storms had landfall, both in the yucatan peninsula. just because the u.s. did not get hit does not mean nothing happened.
I will be quite happy to discuss, but as you just noted you have no info to back up the claim. Bandying opinions works in a bar (where I am at, BTW!) but that's something that has to be done in person, not over an internet connection.
Cannonball: Why wouldn't scientists get grants if they spoke out against Gore? Gore is not in government--the Republicans are. It seems to me that anyone that was afraid of not getting grants would be speaking against Gore, and in favor of Republican talking points. Yet exactly the opposite is happening, virtually all the scientists agree with Gore, and the few who do not, like this one "expert", has no evidence to back up his position. Why do you suppose that is?
"Why wouldn't scientists get grants if they spoke out against Gore?"
It doesn't have to make sense, Mark. I gave up a while ago, but I used to ask the deniers the same question about motive. That is, what is the incentive for these scientists to publish studies confirming Global Warming?
One would think that, with cash rewards , and the benefit of truth on their side, denying GW would be the easy and lucrative position.
I never have heard a decent answer, only some vague ideas about government control and the grants you mentioned. Of course, in the case of the grants, that would call for a motive as well (as you've pointed out with your question), but that would involve some huge industry that profits from people consuming less.
Like I said, it doesn't have to make sense.It only needs to calm the fears of those who have trouble with the idea of taking responsibility for our actions as a species.
"Why wouldn't scientists get grants if they spoke out against Gore?"
You are both correct this is a nonsense argument. In real science it works quite the opposite. You get famous and you get grants and you get publicity if you can show the majority is wrong. Any scientist with the slightest hint of evidence that conventional theory is wrong will have no trouble getting grants. You have to write a proposal and have a theory that makes sense and might work. Grants are issued all the time to clear up questions and problems and ambiguity in the data on climate issues.
Cannon, so you think it's ok for the talking head to say "William M. Gray, who has stated that global warming "is one of the greatest hoaxes ever perpetrated on the American people." without asking for some backup or details? Especially since .... you guessed it .. the climate is warming!! I would encourage you to find out about some of the really interesting research going on in the climate change field. As I mention in other posts, the preponderance of evidence would suggest that we should be seeing the beginnings of a cooling trrend, and yet no, the climate appears to be warming, and gazooks, CO2 levels are headed to a record level not seen in 800,000 years!! Gosh, where could all this CO2 be coming from? Best to ignore mountains of evidence and endlessly debate basic science so that we won't have to face .....
An Inconvient Truth!!
tada!!
But you forget, the world is only 10,000 years old, so the other 790,000 years worth of data was nothing more than a joke God planted!
I too would like to see his data. What frustrates me is that so many people take for fact that humans are causing the earth to warm. What about natural sources of CO2? What about the sun? Why is it getting hotter on Mars too? There aren't any SUVs and coal plants up there that I know about.
there is no evidence that it is getting "hotter" on mars. this link discusses the shrinking of the southern polar ice cap on mars, which would be quite consistent with the planet moving on it's axis and the southern part being more exposed to sunlight. at that particular time. the article also explains that mars has swings of "winter" and "summer" that can last many years and there is no comparison to be made with the annual cycles of our planet. it is a total fallacy to claim it is getting "hotter" on mars.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=192
I'm pretty disappointed that you wouldn't rise to the challenge. I gave you every opportunity to debate this honestly, guess you ain't interested in discussing facts, o'l cannonball run...
What about natural sources of CO2?
The evidence that burning of carbon fuel is causing the rise in CO2 is unquestioned and easy to understand. The concentration of carbon isotope C13 in the atmosphere is declining. This fact is described as the "smoking gun". Carbon fuels have lower than normal amount of C13 as compared to the atmosphere (about 2% less) because plants have a preference for the the normal C12 version . We burn organic carbon fuels by the millions of tons thus changing the ratio of C12 to C13 in the atmosphere.
C14 data also supports this but it's no good after 1950 because of above ground nuclear testing which blew the C14 concentrations to artificially high levels.
Just read this and shut the hell up. Follow algore like the lemmings you are.
Time will tell that you are are wrong. Talk to me in 10 years
Goodfella, that's quite a link. Junk Science debunked, no home page, not one scientists (nor humans, for that matter) name attached.
I also like "scientific" sites that include pocket size pub trivia charts, and take-home messages.
But just in case I missed something, could you tell everybody which part of that page you felt was really compelling? A specific paragraph, maybe, and in your own words, why you think anybody else should "shut up" based on that?
Thanks.
I apologize, Goodfella, I clicked on the logo, and did find a home page, which included this;
"Steven J. Milloy is: the founder and publisher of JunkScience.com and CSRwatch.com ; an investment adviser to the Free Enterprise Action Fund ; and a columnist for FoxNews.com .
as noted above, gray has not submitted his ideas "to any peer-reviewed journal". that would tend to leave him out of the top tier.
and try to check out paul krugman's column: "gore derangement syndrome". how the right wing has been absolutely driven bananas by the fact that gore keeps being proven right. he conjectures what would happen if one of the republican candidates were to actually admit the truth on climate change, as opposed to the party line. [and speaking of being proven right, it was krugman who has been predicting the mortgage meltdown for several years. take a bow, paul.]
You are right they should have been clearer on the distinction between a meterologist and a climate scientist. Meterologists use the latest climate models developed by the scientists to make short term predictions of weather. Thus, a meterologist is by defintion not as expert on climate change a scientist that studies long term climate change. A climate scientist gets all giddy over a trend that can be verified in "just a few centuries" where as a meterologist is concerned with predicting (badly in the case) the number of named storms in one month.
They should take a lesson from Granny and have a cricket in a box to make their predictions off of!
I should let a criket do my typing, crikey.
Oh sure. Only a "top meteorologist" would say this:
"Gore believed in global warming almost as much as Hitler believed there was something wrong with the Jews" ---Gray
Ahhh, yes. Gore is like Hitler.
they always come up with the few who disagree. [like wesley.] so therefore that means the issue is "unsettled".
Yeah, us common folks are just too stupid to understand. Never mind when I was growing up in Michigan snow on thanksgiving was common and snow on holloween was a chance, but now snow on christmas day being the 1st snow of the year has occured a few times? Now we need air conditioning in Michigan?
Or in Texas, we had a cool summer with lots of rain a few years in a row after seeing near 20 years of low rainfall to constant drought?
Yeah, us folks who just live are too stupid to notice the changes...
cmon bro, so it's warmer now than when you were twelve, do you consider that a representative sample??? what a useless post.
Yeah, what was I thinking? 47 years of observation means nothing compared to a lettered hack who gets his "facts" out of a crackerjack box.
What is really telling, is that the scientists who actually are up there doing ice cores, measuring CO2 levels in Greenland, you know, the scientific process, are trying to figure out why we are'nt seeing the cooling trend that 800,000 years of evidence predicts. Other than the record breaking levels of CO2 and other atmospheric gasses that have what is called a positive feedback effect on temperatures.
Scientists are'nt sure if past warming trends were caused by increases in CO2, or the wariming trend caused CO2 levels to rise, but they do know that once the CO2 levels rise, the warming trend is exacerbated by the positve feedback. So to sum up, the research going on now is, did we miss some natural cause or make a mistake interpreting our data? No? Okay, then how fast, where and how strong will the warming trend be assuming different levels of human emissions of greenhouse gases.
Nobody is debating whether the earth is getting warmer. On this most humans agree. The debate is over whether or not humans are playing a statistically significant role in the warming. THIS is what us 'Gore haters' are frustrated with. We've had a few ice ages before, and the earth somehow managed to defrost itself long before SUVs and farting cows. Why is it so hard to even consider the possibility that we are not having an impact?
When science becomes devoid of debate, it becomes vapid.
Then why not bring facts to the table? When a disagreement starts out with "gore doesn't deserve his nobel" just what makes you think that will get our attention in a way that will leave debate a possibility?
Here are the FACTS...
(Sorry for the repeated link from my earlier post- it's important)
And sorry for the repeated question, but which part of that page do you consider the deal-closer? Or is it just the number of words that got you?
Its clear that no matter what is presented, it ain't gonna change anyone's mind here.
Nevertheless...this got my attention:
"But we're responsible for all the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect? Gracious no! Humans can only claim responsibility, if that's the word, for abut 3.4% of carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere annually, the rest of it is all natural (you can see the IPCC representation of the natural carbon cycle and human perturbation here or a simple schematic from Woods Hole here). Half our estimated emissions fail to accumulate in the atmosphere, "disappearing" into sinks as yet undetermined. Humans' total accumulated carbon contribution could account for perhaps a quarter of the total non-water greenhouse gases (that is, accounting for all the increase since the Industrial Revolution regardless of source and irrespective of whether warming from any cause might result in an increase in natural emission to atmosphere -- we're simply claiming the lot as anthropogenic or human-caused here). Assuming that water vapor accounts for about 70% and clouds (mostly water droplets) accounts for another 20%, thus water in it's various forms is 90% of the total greenhouse effect, leaving 10% for non-water greenhouse effect (we know we cited 95% above -- see "important distinction"). Of this remaining 10%, mainly atmospheric carbon, humans might be responsible for 25% of the total accumulated atmospheric carbon, meaning 0.25 x 0.1 = 0.025 x 100 = 2.5% of the total greenhouse effect." JunkScience.comUpdated August 2007
The effects of water vapor in the atmosphere are feedback effects, mostly because water vapor doesn't have a long residency time in the atmosphere. It doesn't retain a presence long enough to be a significant forcing.
And as far as anthropogenic carbon emissions go, I find it amusing that Milloy (or whoever wrote the piece) rambles on without addressing the chemical composition of human emitted carbons (there is a comment somewhere in this thread that has addressed the issue of decreased C-13 count).
And once again, it's interesting to note the logical fallacy at work here. Even if we weren't responsible for the "overwhelming majority" of the planet's carbon cycle (which no one claims we are, it's a strawman drummed up the deniers) it doesn't follow that we can't have an enormous influence on climatic effects. As an analogy, drop a garden hose in a water jet filled and drained pool. The garden hose has nowhere near the power of the jetstreams, but the pool will eventually overflow regardless.
Maybe I'm just a close minded lefty but I have a hard time believing the "facts" presented by somone who has also denied the link between second hand smoke and cancer, argued that the WTC would have stood longer if it had had more asbestos in it, and has consistently attacked corporations for voluntarily adopting green poliicies as wasting shareholder dollars.
Your cute little link has no actual scientific credibility behind it and very questionable sources pushing it.
Cannon: "When science becomes devoid of debate, it becomes vapid. " That is a really really cool sentence and I'm sure in some context it would make sense. Have you ever been around scientists? Bar none the most debating enabled people on earth, beating out worthless FOX gimps, lawyers, philosopher's etc. That's how they spend half thier time, the other half is spent feverishly doing more research so that they can debate even better.
Admittedly I've never been around climate scientists, although I read the literature quite a bit. I have been subjected to all night debates regarding wether micro ecology collapse or social upheaval did in the cliff dwelling culture of Mesa Verde and Chaco Canyon. Being a science geek I enjoyed it!
The real debate is not over what is considered basic science but things like can we tell from the chemicals in a tree ring what the spring weather was like 8000 years ago in Nevada and then calibrate that with sediment layers in Hudson Bay?
all this "natural cycle" stuff is a denial of the basics of science. no one has argued that there have not been cycles in the past. the contention, and a well founded one, is that overwhelming human activity, something unprecedented in the history of the planet, is causing the present trend. a rapidly accelerating trend.
"...us 'Gore haters'..."
Right, and that is why nothing anyone can say to the Gore Haters will make the slightest difference. As long as Gore says it, what he says will have to be discredited and Gore demonized.
The outright disgust with and hatred of Al Gore pre-dates Inconvenient Truth. These people, like the poster above, loath Gore as they do Carter, Pelosi, Hillary Clinton, and on and on. The hatred can and will and has made them blind to scientific studies, and ---unlike a scientist--- ignoring anything that doesn't support their opinion.
As long as they can dig up one scientist out of the boondocks who disputes Gore ---and there always will be at least one--- then Gore is a sham and a liar.
Nobody is debating whether the earth is getting warmer. On this most humans agree.
Can I get a AMEN on that from everyone. It has taken ten years to convince the skeptics of that fact. If it is getting warmer, then we need to recognize it and for governments to makes plans and allowances for the result as needed.
On wonders if the very same people who couldn't accept that fairly simple fact are now the same who claim to have wisdom about the more complex question of it's cause.
Will it take another ten years to convince skeptics already shown to be wrong on a simpler issue? Prominent talking pundits apparently feel no guilt or inadequacy due to their earlier error and expect to be taken seriously. And will it take another ten years after that (2027) to convince them that we can actually do something about it?
Greatest Hoax Ever?
Perhaps Gray might enhance his credibility if he could explain this conspiracy (my word, but that's what he is implying) to perpetuate on the American people the "greatest hoax ever". Why is this "greatest" hoax being perpetuated?
I would point out to Gray that he's proof, he's got an uphill climb to demonstrate that this alleged hoax is the "greatest" ever since the George W. Bush build-up to the Iraq war undoubtedly qualifies as the greatest hoax evr perpetuated on the American people...at least in my lifetime it is.
Typo Correction: I would point out to Mr. Gray that if he's got proof...
Greatest Hoax Ever?
This is one of those claims I find to be impossible. It can't even be a minor hoax. I ask anyone, how many scientist are in on this hoax? Is it just a few that are fooling all the rest? Did 20 of them con the 2000 others? It's impossible. It is EXTREMELY difficult to maintain a hoax or conspiracy involving a large number of people. Folks who suggest a conspiracy involving 2100 scientists over a 5 year period ARE LOONEY!
Hannity grabed onto this and didn't let go during his radio show, chanting the same old thing about Gores hypocricy and the use of a private jet. He said the Nobel Peace Prize has been degraded to the point that he would not accept it if he ever won - Well guess what Hannity - you'll never have to face that unless there Nobel Idiots Prize
"(Hannity) said the Nobel Peace Prize has been degraded to the point that he would not accept it if he ever won."
That's hilarious! Too bad because I heard Sean was a lock for next year's Nobel prize. I guess Sean would never have sex with Susan Sarandon either...even if she begged him. ;>)
Well, if Hannity would not accept the award if he won it, I suppose they will not bother to award it anymore. What would be the point?
Honestly, is there anyone in the media who is as dumb as the "Great American" Sean Hannity?
Mark from Chicago? Isn't that the guy Rush doubted was a Republican... or former military? The so-called phony soldier...?
Let's compare Gray v. Gore on qualifications:
William M. "Bill" Gray (b. 1931), Ph.D., is a pioneer in the science of forecasting hurricanes. In 1952 he received a BS degree in Geography from George Washington University, and in 1959 a MS in Meteorology from the University of Chicago, where he went on to earn a PhD in Geophysical Sciences in 1964.Gray pioneered the concept of "seasonal" hurricane forecasting — predicting months in advance the severity of the coming hurricane season. Gray's prognostications, issued since 1983, are used by insurance companies to calculate premiums. [1]Gray is Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University (CSU), and head of the Tropical Meteorology Project at CSU's Department of Atmospheric Sciences. Gray is noted for his forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity.Professor Gray served as a weather forecaster for the United States Air Force, and as a research assistant in the University of Chicago Department of Meteorology. He joined Colorado State University in 1961. He has been advisor of over 70 Ph. D. and M. Sc. students. His team has been issuing seasonal hurricane forecasts since 1984.After the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, Professor Gray announced that he was stepping back from the primary authorship of CSU's tropical cyclone probability forecasts, passing the role to Philip J. Klotzbach. Gray indicated that he would be devoting more time to the issue of global warming. He is a controversial figure to global warming proponents as he does not subscribe to anthropogenic causes for global warming. Al Gore:
Lost 2000 election to GWB. Lost court case in Britain and had to admit that "documentary" was largely fiction. No scientific credentials. World champion "sigher".
That's an unfair comparison...it's bogus. Al Gore is not a scientist, although after years of studying the issue he is more knowledgable on the subject than your avergae layman. Why don't you compare Bill Gray's credentials to the hundreds, or perhaps thousands of climatolgy experts, whose views support Al Gore's position? And explain why Bill Gray's opinion is so special?
But, more importantly, why don't you explain what Bill Gray calls the "greatest hoax ever"? A "hoax" means there is an intentional misrepresentation. Bill Gray is not just saying that the scientists with whom he disagrees are wrong, he's saying there is an intentional misrepresentation. Does Bill Gray have proof of an intentional misrepresentation by the scientific community? Lay it on us...let's hear Bill Gray's explanation why global warming is a hoax.
The algore global warming hoax has been thrust upon us to further the far left socialist agenda.
That post made about as much sense as Limbaugh on an Oxycontin bender.
Goodfella, I hate to keep picking on you, but you hinted at a point I made before seeing this post of yours; motive for the study of Global warming.
I've heard the "government control" theories, and I think you're in the ballpark with your "socialist agenda" , I just don't understand the details.You don't seem like a real "details guy" but would you mind connecting the dots for me? How does the science of Global Warming promote this "agenda" and who benefits from it? How do they benefit?
Thanks, I'm looking forward to the answers.
Lefty,
Thank you for a reasoned response to my admittedly flame-throwing 1 line post.
In my broadly generalized opinion:
The far left has a long history of disdain for wealth, capitalism and the inequality in lifestyle that it provides with big houses and SUVs being the prime outward displays of success. In their effort to promote "equality" the left has embraced the idea of distribution of wealth and lifestyle conformity. And what better way to achieve this goal than to demonize the superficial symbols of financial success and conclude that those symbols of success will cause the destruction of our very planet? Global warming is the perfect solution for the left to finally get to the rich-white-SUV- driving-conservatives. Not only that, ALL of the beautiful hollywood celebs are behind it, further endearing the less-informed to their cause.
Ironically, the proposed solutions to global warming only hurt the less affluent. The cost hybrid car is beyond the means of most of the population; Alternative energy sources don't have the SCALE to provide affordable solutions. Then you see algore in private jets, an SUV and a BIG house that uses 20 times the electricity of the average American household. And he thinks he can buy 'carbon credits' to offset his conspicuous use of energy, which is like a drunk driver giving money to MADD so he continue with a clear conscience.
"The algore global warming hoax has been thrust upon us to further the far left socialist agenda."
Fellow progressives: the cat's out of the bag. They're on to us.
"had to admit that "documentary" was largely fiction"
No such quote of Gore saying that exists. But you knew that.
Your track record of moronically hateful misrepresentation is still intact. Nice work.
Billy, comparing you to a lying piece of human waste would be a disservice to human waste.
Gray's biography as you presented it is a direct cut and paste for Wiki, which goes on to say this:
"Gray's work has been the subject of significant criticisms. The Real Climate website published a critique of the key points in one of Gray's papers. They argue that Gray's work is fundamentally wrong because most of his pronouncements on climate change and its causes are based on 'fundamental misconceptions on the physics of climate'."
As for your lame attack on Gore, he won the popular vote in the 2000 election and was not a defendant in the British court case.
Does the nutwing noise machine blast fax your opinions to you or just broadcast them directly into the atrophied muscle you laughingly call your brain?
I would like to personally apologize for my generation's responsibility for the current global warming. In the late 60's, early 70's we were warned of the coming Ice Age due to global COOLING. Same scientific data, tons of books and articles by experts - all blamed on human activity. In our urgent response to this serious threat, I fear we overreacted and are now apparently the cause of the warming of the planet. Mea Culpa.
Nope almost NONE of that is true. No such theory was accepted by the scientific community. Some preliminary data was overblown by the media. Within a couple years and further analysis by more scientist that theory that we were headed for an ice age was debunked (decades ago).
NOT THE SAME DATA. What do you think scientist have been doing for the last 40 years? They have dug more holes analyzed stuff we didn't even know about then and of course put up a bunch of satellites in orbit around the earth.
A few scientist were wrong once 35 years ago and they were quickly corrected. Now thousands have studied the problem with much better tools over about the last 20 years.
It's stupid argument.
Sorry you didn't recognize the sarcasm there, but the point is scientists are constantly finding new facts, and I can't believe the number of people who are willing to shut down the whole debate right now. Even Al Gore admits to "convenient" extrapolations in his film, and several "facts" from the movie have already been debunked. It scares me that it is becoming less about science and more about politics.
Where does the peace prize winner stand on peace....as in troop withdrawal....????
That bit about "having to admit it was fiction" is JUST ASTOUNDING.
One has to ask why people like Billybob have to outright LIE to post anything.
The court in Great Britian only asserted that certain parts, THE COURT FELT, with no scientific backup, that certain parts were not settled science, and that the film had a political slant to it, BUT the Court said there was NO REASON NOT TO ALLOW THE FILM IN SCHOOLS IN GREAT BRITAIN. AND RULED AGAINST THE GW DENIALIST.
OF course the rightwing whackjobs lied about that as well.
So who's really lying here? The rightwing whackjob denialists who are no different than the Holocaust denialists, or....well that would pretty much clear it then wouldn't it.
The GW denialists just lie.
I cannot understand why they pretend to be the party of "values" when their entire existence is predicated upon lying, sliming, and denigrating anyone who disagrees with them.
I mean anyone who backs up the sliming of a 12 year old boy with lies and fact twisting, cannot be anyone who can be trusted to tell the truth.
So why do they lie all the time?
it's like something i posted on the other thread. the judge said that gore could not prove that glaciers on mt. kilamanjaro are melting, and will be gone, because of global warming. the fact is that they are melting all over the world at a more rapid pace than ever recorded. and that includes the core ice samples going back thousands of years.
There is consensus among the business community that anything that upsets the "status quo" will cost them money, and so they actively OPPOSE any information that threatens them. This is understandable.
Cigarette companies spent a fortune denying scientific medical facts, until their denials were overcome by the sheer overwhelming nature of evidence. At that point, it was revealed the lengths they went to fabricating and falsifying THEIR OWN studies, when the evidence THEY contracted came up supporting the claims they wished to deny.
The MOTIVE for the rightwing is no mystery: MONEY. Tons and tons of money, which is threatened if it is accepted that the methods they use to make that money might be damaging to people, the environment, the community, the world.
Common sense informs our instructions to kids, from kindergarten to Boy Scouts. Simple rules for living include thing like cleaning up your own messes, putting things back where you found them, leaving an area unaffected by your passing (or better), not using any more resources than you need for survival, and replenishing natrual resources when possible. These and other rules adopted by the Boy Scouts (considered a very CONSERVATIVE organization), recognize a basic truth that each of us is responsible for our own impact on the world around us. That impact can be irresponsible and harmful, or responsible and positive.
BUSINESS does not follow these common sense rules. They have ONE rule: Profit. Anything that enhances that profit is GOOD, and anything that interferes (or might some day interfere) with that profit is BAD.
This is the debate today. It's NOT over the science and facts and evidence. It is quite simply the struggle between whether the forces of GOOD STEWARDSHIP of our planet will prevail, or whether instead the forces of PROFIT MOTIVE will prevail.
In this debate, of course, the Business Community (and their defenders) have the ideological mindset that anything which might threaten their profits must be a communist conspiracy, a socialist power grab, and a movement which would not CHANGE the way they do business, but instead would DESTROY business entirely. They believe they are actually fighting for survival, and thus their efforts to deny, debunk, and discredit the other side is a fight to the death.
Bottom line: There will be no "reasoning" with them. They will either be defeated, or they will prevail. And in this fight, they have MOST of the money on their side, while WE who support Gore have only the FACTS and the SCIENCE and the MORALITY.
There are ominous signs that the Earth’s weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production – with serious political implications for just about every nation on Earth. The drop in food output could begin quite soon, perhaps only 10 years from now. The regions destined to feel its impact are the great wheat-producing lands of Canada and the U.S.S.R. in the North, along with a number of marginally self-sufficient tropical areas – parts of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indochina and Indonesia – where the growing season is dependent upon the rains brought by the monsoon.
The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it. In England, farmers have seen their growing season decline by about two weeks since 1950, with a resultant overall loss in grain production estimated at up to 100,000 tons annually. During the same time, the average temperature around the equator has risen by a fraction of a degree – a fraction that in some areas can mean drought and desolation. Last April, in the most devastating outbreak of tornadoes ever recorded, 148 twisters killed more than 300 people and caused half a billion dollars’ worth of damage in 13 U.S. state
To scientists, these seemingly disparate incidents represent the advance signs of fundamental changes in the world’s weather. The central fact is that after three quarters of a century of extraordinarily mild conditions, the earth’s climate seems to be cooling down. Meteorologists disagree about the cause and extent of the cooling trend, as well as over its specific impact on local weather conditions. But they are almost unanimous in the view that the trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century. If the climatic change is as profound as some of the pessimists fear, the resulting famines could be catastrophic. “A major climatic change would force economic and social adjustments on a worldwide scale,” warns a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences, “because the global patterns of food production and population that have evolved are implicitly dependent on the climate of the present century.”
A survey completed last year by Dr. Murray Mitchell of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reveals a drop of half a degree in average ground temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere between 1945 and 1968. According to George Kukla of Columbia University, satellite photos indicated a sudden, large increase in Northern Hemisphere snow cover in the winter of 1971-72. And a study released last month by two NOAA scientists notes that the amount of sunshine reaching the ground in the continental U.S. diminished by 1.3% between 1964 and 1972.To the layman, the relatively small changes in temperature and sunshine can be highly misleading. Reid Bryson of the University of Wisconsin points out that the Earth’s average temperature during the great Ice Ages was only about seven degrees lower than during its warmest eras – and that the present decline has taken the planet about a sixth of the way toward the Ice Age average. Others regard the cooling as a reversion to the “little ice age” conditions that brought bitter winters to much of Europe and northern America between 1600 and 1900 – years when the Thames used to freeze so solidly that Londoners roasted oxen on the ice and when iceboats sailed the Hudson River almost as far south as New York City.Just what causes the onset of major and minor ice ages remains a mystery. “Our knowledge of the mechanisms of climatic change is at least as fragmentary as our data,” concedes the National Academy of Sciences report. “Not only are the basic scientific questions largely unanswered, but in many cases we do not yet know enough to pose the key questions.” (continued below)Meteorologists think that they can forecast the short-term results of the return to the norm of the last century. They begin by noting the slight drop in overall temperature that produces large numbers of pressure centers in the upper atmosphere. These break up the smooth flow of westerly winds over temperate areas. The stagnant air produced in this way causes an increase in extremes of local weather such as droughts, floods, extended dry spells, long freezes, delayed monsoons and even local temperature increases – all of which have a direct impact on food supplies.
“The world’s food-producing system,” warns Dr. James D. McQuigg of NOAA’s Center for Climatic and Environmental Assessment, “is much more sensitive to the weather variable than it was even five years ago.” Furthermore, the growth of world population and creation of new national boundaries make it impossible for starving peoples to migrate from their devastated fields, as they did during past famines.
Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change, or even to allay its effects. They concede that some of the more spectacular solutions proposed, such as melting the Arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot or diverting arctic rivers, might create problems far greater than those they solve. But the scientists see few signs that government leaders anywhere are even prepared to take the simple measures of stockpiling food or of introducing the variables of climatic uncertainty into economic projections of future food supplies. The longer the planners delay, the more difficult will they find it to cope with climatic change once the results become grim reality.
From The Cooling World – Newsweek, April 28, 1975
I assume many of you are too young to remember the last great climate scare in the 70's. This was one of many publications regarding the great global cooling debate. Today they look back at this and say - "we didn't understand blah,blah blah, and we misinterpreted this and that - blah, blah, blah. Bottom line is the earth takes care of itself. Scientific fact says temperatures swing. Scientific theory tries to explain why - however scientific theory can only be based on what it knows as of today. The great global cooling folly of 1975 proves that.
That said I am all for conservation and green efforts as good stewards of our environment. It is our responsibility to take care of what we are given.
Fool me once shame on you - fool me twice shame on me.
From The Cooling World – Newsweek, April 28, 1975
I assume many of you are too young to remember the last great climate scare in the 70's. This was one of many publications regarding the great global cooling debate.
It would be fun to see a list of the "many other publications" you mentioned as this is the common one that is always quoted. I was a working scientist in 1975 and I remember the time very well. I wasn't scared then, but I'm a little worried now. So far every climate prediction since about 1992 has been exceeded.
National Geographic - 11/76
NY Times 5/21/75
Science News 3/1/75
Time Magazine 6/24/74
US News & Workd Report 5/31/76
Fortune Magazine - 2/74
International Wildlife - 7/75
I was an Earth Science student in 1975 - Global cooling was a class research project. Enjoy!
Thanks, it's much more than I expected. Would you mind telling us where you obtained the list. Is it on the Junkscience website or did you save your school papers from 30 years ago.
This short list (there is more) is a result of some research done last year with my daughter - we spent an afternoon at the UT Library in Austin. My daughter came home from 8th grade preaching about global warming and how humans are the cause. She was clueless to the temperature swings that occured throughout the 1900's. I told her about the project I had been involved in in high school and she wanted to follow up on it. Here's a summary of reporting throughout the 1900's. Didn't even get into the warming period in the 1600's
Mid 1920's - global cooling
Mid 1930's global warming
Mid 1970's - global cooling
Mid 2000's - global warming
The theories repeat themselves - the projections of pending doom are the same.
Good writtings sir. You where so about to get debunked.
So which is it then? What's your theory? Warmer or colder? Stay the same? Climate scientists are always wrong?
I'm still perturbed that you are indulging in a logical fallacy. There is no basis for the argument that scientists are always wrong, or that if they were wrong in the past, they must be so now. It is in fact counter-intuitive. Even by pure chance they ought to be right half the time, for this type of question.
I don't form theories - my belief is that in this case history is a better predictor of the future than some scientists. Climate scientists are not always wrong as many understand the fluctuation in the earth's temperatures is normal.
As a scientist you can appreciate the difference between scientific fact and scientific theory. Scientific theory is limited to what we know as of today - it is a snapshot in time. Not all scientists are buying into the latest theories - so no - not all scientists are wrong. Sometimes you have to accept that science doesn't know everything and doesn't have all the answers. Is it possible that the doom and gloom scenarios climate "experts" predict will happen - yes, is it probable - no.
The earth has been evolving and changing since it's inception - that is scientific fact. The existence of humanity on the earth is but a small tick on it's timeline. Why are you so sure that what is happening isn't just the earth going through a natural change? The earth is a complex layering of systems beyond our comprehension. Why do you buy into the theory that we could so easily screw it up?
Do you have any peer-reviewed scientific journals that were pushing global cooling back then?
Don't need them - see my above response to ML.
If there is one science that can be pointed out as flawed it is indeed climate science. These guys have a hard enough time predicting next weeks weather never mind long term climate activity.
BTW - Have you noticed how they've recently started naming sub-tropical storms? I guess it helps keep the "Named Storms" numbers high. Just wait - next year we may start in January with "Thunder Storm Andrea"
I am guessing that you have not watched "Inconvenient Truth" In fact, I am guessing that you haven't actually read any of the links carefully that explain the science.
I am guessing that you have only read the faux debunking sites that reinforce your desire to do nothing about the situation.
Mary - go back to my first post and catch up. Then post if you have something valuable to contribute to the discussion.
Didn't mean to sound rude Mary - but you obviously missed this comment from my opening post to this thread.
That said I am all for conservation and green efforts as good stewards of our environment. It is our responsibility to take care of what we are given.
Once you read the rest of the discussion you will see why your original post makes no sense at all.
I do not feel the NPP holds much clout these days. Whi was the Prize winner a few years back? That murdering slob Yasser Arafat .
well zoomie, that pesky Nobel committee doesn't cave to political pressure and can't be controlled by Dick Cheney; so naturally, the people you admire probably won't win anytime soon.
So I just got an email forwarded to me by my step father about this exact subject. I linked the Relaclimate.org info to a reply. I doubt he will read it, but it was nice to be able to send him the facts. Thanks again MMFA.