On This Week, George Will falsely asserted that "in the primaries," McCain "has achieved more independent voters than Obama"
SUMMARY: On ABC's This Week, George Will falsely asserted that "in the primaries," Sen. John McCain "has achieved more independent voters than [Sen. Barack] Obama." In fact, in calculations based on exit polls, in each of the nine states that have held open or semi-open primaries contested by both Obama and McCain, Obama received more votes from voters who identified themselves as "independent" than McCain.
During a roundtable discussion on the February 17 edition of ABC's This Week with George Stephanopoulos, Washington Post columnist George Will falsely asserted that "in the primaries," Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain "has achieved more independent voters than [Sen. Barack] Obama." In fact, exit polling on CNN's website indicates that in all nine states that have held open or semi-open primaries contested by both Obama and McCain, Obama received more votes from voters who identified themselves as "independent" than McCain. Overall, in calculations based on the exit polling from CNN.com, Obama received more than 777,000 votes from independents in the nine states with open and semi-open primaries, compared with approximately 385,000 votes from independents for McCain.
Open primaries are primaries in which all registered voters can vote in either party's primary. Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Missouri, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia have held open Republican and Democratic primaries in which McCain and Obama have competed. Massachusetts held a semi-open Republican and Democratic primary in which party members and independents could vote, but members of another party could not. The exit polling was not conducted in Minnesota, North Dakota, and Washington state, which all held open caucuses.
| Democratic primaries | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total number of voters in Dem primary (according to CNN results page) |
% of inds. in Dem primary (according to exit polls) |
Inds. voting in Dem primary (derived from exit polls)* |
% of inds. voting for Obama (according to exit polls) |
Inds. voting for Obama (derived from exit polls)** |
|
|
AL |
70,167 |
33,680 |
|||
|
AR |
55,317 |
17,701 |
|||
|
GA |
198,832 |
125,264 |
|||
|
MO |
180,500 |
120,935 |
|||
|
NH |
125,006 |
51,252 |
|||
|
SC |
121,974 |
51,229 |
|||
|
TN |
122,819 |
57,725 |
|||
|
VA |
213,486 |
147,305 |
|||
|
MA |
410,564 |
172,437 |
|||
|
Total*** |
777,528 |
||||
| Republican primaries | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total number of voters in GOP primary (according to CNN results page) |
% of inds. in GOP primary (according to exit polls) |
Inds. voting in GOP primary (derived from exit polls)* |
% of inds. voting for McCain (according to exit polls) |
Inds. voting for McCain (derived from exit polls)** |
|
|
AL |
101,488 |
32,476 |
|||
|
AR |
49,408 |
10,870 |
|||
|
GA |
171,803 |
48,105 |
|||
|
MO |
134,462 |
47,062 |
|||
|
NH |
86,351 |
34,540 |
|||
|
SC |
79,725 |
33,485 |
|||
|
TN |
120,475 |
37,347 |
|||
|
VA |
101,216 |
38,462 |
|||
|
MA |
218,315 |
102,608 |
|||
|
Total*** |
384,955 |
||||
*For both Democratic and Republican primaries, the total number of independents voting in each state's primary is an approximation derived from multiplying the total number of votes in the party's primary and the percentage of voters in the primary who were independents, according to the exit polling on CNN.com.
** The total number of independents voting for Obama and McCain in each state is an approximation derived from multiplying the approximate number of independents voting in the Democratic and Republican primary (respectively) and the percentage of those independents who voted for the respective candidate, according to CNN.com's exit polls.
*** The total number of independents voting for Obama and McCain in the nine states combined is derived by adding the approximate total of independents voting for the two candidates in each state.
In addition, during the discussion of who can win independent voters, host George Stephanopoulos referred to McCain's "line" that Obama is the "most liberal senator, according to National Journal" without expressing the skepticism for that assertion that he had previously shown. On the February 3 edition of This Week, Stephanopoulos stated: "[Y]ou saw the National Journal this week, he was the most liberal senator. Now, I don't put any credence in the way they get to that, but it's still a line Republicans are going to use." As Media Matters for America pointed out, among the "liberal" votes that purportedly earned Obama the label "most liberal senator" were votes to implement the bipartisan 9-11 Commission's homeland security recommendations, provide more children with health insurance, permit federal funding for embryonic stem-cell research, and maintain a federal minimum wage.
From the February 17 broadcast of ABC's This Week:
STEPHANOPOULOS: He seems to have decided, George, that Hillary Clinton is likely a better opponent for him than Barack Obama. But you heard that line that he said about Obama -- "most liberal senator, according to National Journal." How effective can that be? And it's going to go right to the heart of who can win these independents between Obama and McCain if Obama gets the nomination.
WILL: So far, in the primaries, he -- McCain -- has achieved more independent voters than Obama has, so that's where it will be settled. And in this sense, we're past the [former White House senior adviser Karl] Rove era. Rove, going in to 2004, said there were 7 percent independents. They don't matter; what you do is rally your base. We're back to a more normal election in which there is a middle of maybe 20 percent that's in play. And in that sense, whether or not he can convince the country that beneath the soaring rhetoric there are details, and they won't like the details, that's his job.















Maybe George Swill meant to say McCain has turned more of his own party's voters into independents than Obama has.
I can believe that.
The shift from 7% to 20% “Independents” since the last election did not come from the ranks of voters who formerly voted as Democrats. The percentage number of independents in itself is not the Republicans biggest concern. The fact that it represents all the voters they have LOST because of the antics of 8 years the Bush-Cheney Regime is what makes these voters so important to “win back” to the Republican Party in ’08. Will knows this, but he is hardly going to highlight the fact that millions of Republicans have seen the light at the same time he is trying to herd in the sheep.
Will's "conclusion" is that independents are "where it will be settled" ... meaning, who between McCain and Obama would be able to win.
He may well be right ... even if the nominee is Hillary instead of Barack.
What Will is WRONG about ... and we must conclude it is WILLFULLY wrong, because he has access to the FACTS ... is that McCain WINS in that accounting.
It's classic logic: If independents go to McCain, McCain will win.
If A, then B. If NOT A, then NOT B.
It's NOT A, George. By your own calculus, McCain has no chance.
"...that beneath the soaring rhetoric there are details, and they won't like the details..."
...Republican code words for Obama will raise taxes.
One thing that pundits are misreading IMO is the firm anti-war sentiment in the country. While exit polls purportedly show that the economy is of immediate major concern to voters it ignores, to an extent, that a growing majority of people are sick of the war...and they are cognizant of the financial drain on the country it has caused.
I agree entirely with Will that in this election, as opposed to 2004, independents are back in play. However, as pointed out by this article and other posters, Will has misrepresented where those independents are going. But, IMO, it is the war in Iraq that will play a major role in driving those voters away from McCain.
It's interesting that Ron Paul, perhaps the most anti-war of all candidates, has gained more campaign contributions from active members of the armed services than any other candidate. Add up the total military contributions for the anti-war candidates, including Clinton and Obama, and the percentage is in line with the perecentages of Americans who are opposed to the war. Where are Ron Paul's supporters, admittedly a relatively small number, going to go. To McCain? I doubt it. But IMO it shows that people opposed to the war, including independents, are going to gravitate to the anti-war candidate in the general election.
http://www.ronpaul2008.com/press-releases/211/q4-fec-reports-ron-paul-receives-more-military-donations-than-all-other-republicans-combined/
SAVE DEMOCRACY, VOTE FOR A DEMOCRAT!!
It's not surprising to see a desparate George Will, soon to be the handmaiden of the failure that is conservative policy of the past 25 years they can not escape. He is going to be re-inventing alot for years to come, when your policy agenda has complete control of government for so long and runs it into a ditch the way the Neo-Cons have, making the past something it wasn't is the only strategy left.
Reality Check George! Democrats 2-1 to the Republicans in that 'most likely voters poll of most likely voters poll" the primaries/caucuss!!! Kiss my grits!!!!
Happy Thoughts;
Dan Grady
It's sad watching Will, like the other old Neocons, in complete denial about their world slipping away, and their time being in the ol' dustbin of history.
They're like that guy who had the brand new bltchin' Camaro in high school. The girls all wanted a ride, the guys all were impressed by it's shiny paint and loud engine.
Then , one day,the guy in the Camaro is confused.The girls are averting their eyes, and walking a little faster. The guys are laughing. Why? Because it's 2008, and there's a 50 year old geezer in a beat-up '78 Camaro cruising around the school parking lot doing burnouts.
BOYLANE:
What the "conservatives" believe ... and with damn good impirical backup ... is that if they LIE, there will follow a media echo chamber REPEATING that lie over and over again, ad infinitum. It's not exactly "becoming the truth", but it's the next best thing, because it's an attempt at FOOLING the American people by having hijacked and corrupted their "free press" into a partisan propaganda machine.
If it's all they hear, then they HAVE to believe it. Right?