Off-the-mark Morris now predicting Clinton will run against Obama in 2012
SUMMARY: On The O'Reilly Factor, Dick Morris predicted that Sen. Hillary Clinton would challenge President-elect Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination in the 2012 presidential election. But some of Morris' past attempts at political prognostication have been wildly off the mark. Morris' latest prediction is also inconsistent with his assertion in April that "[o]bviously, if Obama beats [Sen. John] McCain, Hillary is out of the picture until 2016."
On the December 3 edition of Fox News' The O'Reilly Factor, Fox News analyst and syndicated columnist Dick Morris asked host Bill O'Reilly, "Do you believe [Sen.] Hillary Clinton will run a primary against [President-elect] Barack Obama for president in 2012?" After O'Reilly responded, "Yes," Morris said, "Damn right she will." Later in the segment, Morris added that Obama has "built in to his administration the seeds of his own destruction." But as a prognosticator of political events, as Media Matters for America has documented, Morris has at times been wildly off the mark. Morris' latest prediction is also inconsistent with his April 25 column, in which he wrote: "Does Hillary want to beat up Obama so that he can't win the general election in November, assuring [Sen. John] McCain of the presidency so that she can have a clear field to run again in 2012? Obviously, if Obama beats McCain, Hillary is out of the picture until 2016, by which time, at 69 years old, she might be too old to run."
As Media Matters documented, in columns in The Hill and the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and appearances on Fox News in 2005, Morris repeatedly touted New York Republican Jeanine Pirro's 2006 Senate campaign against Clinton. Morris asserted, regarding Clinton running for a second Senate term, "[T]he first thing I would tell Hillary, if I were advising Hillary, is you're crazy to run for the Senate." He also asserted that Clinton "might just take a pass" rather than face Pirro in the election, and even stated, "My bet is that Clinton thinks the better of it and drops out of the race if Pirro comes on strong." However, it was Pirro -- not Clinton -- who, trailing badly in polls, dropped out of the race on December 21, 2005.
Morris also predicted that Rep. Rick Lazio (R-NY) would defeat Clinton in the 2000 New York Senate race. One day prior to the election, on the November 6, 2000, edition of The O'Reilly Factor, Morris asserted: "I think Lazio is, at this point, more likely to win it than Hillary, because, if Hillary is at 48 percent -- or even at 49 percent, or even at 50 percent -- a lot of her vote of minorities, a lot of her -- who have no real reason to vote in the presidential race." Lazio lost to Clinton by more than 12 percentage points, even though he outspent her by nearly $11 million.
Morris also made significantly off-base predictions about the 2008 presidential election. According to his final predicted electoral map, released on October 27, Morris labeled Arkansas "lean Obama." McCain won Arkansas by 20 percentage points, and according to Pollster.com, Obama led in that state in only one poll throughout the entire race -- by two percentage points in a June 11-30 Zogby Internet survey. Morris' final electoral map also had Louisiana and Tennessee as "tossup" states; McCain won each of these states by at least 15 percentage points.
From the December 3 edition of Fox News' The O'Reilly Factor:
O'REILLY: I don't mind Hillary Clinton as secretary of state. I'm thinking she has a certain gravitas out there, and I think she's pretty tough. You would agree with that. She's tough.
MORRIS: She's -- she's tough. She's to the right of him, which is good.
O'REILLY: Right.
MORRIS: She'd be tougher on national security issues, and I think she'd be good from that point of view. My concern --
O'REILLY: All right, so you have no problem --
MORRIS: My concern -- and I think, by the way, the disclosure deal that Bill has agreed to isn't a bad one, about Dubai and all that stuff. The thing that worries me from Obama's point of view about Hillary Clinton -- let's follow your logic. Let's say there's a terror attack. And let's say Obama's popularity drops. Let's say the economy doesn't improve, and his popularity's down around 27 percent. Do you believe Hillary Clinton will run a primary against Barack Obama for president --
O'REILLY: Yes.
MORRIS: -- in 2012? Damn right she will.
O'REILLY: Yeah, everybody knows that.
MORRIS: From -- from the State Department.
O'REILLY: Well, no, she'll resign.
MORRIS: Yeah, a week before she does.
MORRIS: It's just like when Johnson --
O'REILLY: Right.
MORRIS: -- inherited Bobby Kennedy at the Justice Department.
O'REILLY: But she's famous enough, like, if she feels that she can be president in four years, she'll resign.
MORRIS: She'll go for it.
O'REILLY: And, yeah, and run against him like Kennedy and [inaudible].
MORRIS: So what Obama is doing is he's built in to his administration the seeds of his own destruction.
O'REILLY: I don't know about that. She'd run against him anyway --
MORRIS: Yeah, but --
O'REILLY: -- if she were the senator from New York.
MORRIS: Yeah, but she wouldn't have the rationale that, "This guy thought I was so qualified he put me in charge of foreign policy."
O'REILLY: This is where -- this is where you go off the cliff. If she's gonna run, if she sees him in trouble, no matter where she is --
MORRIS: Yes, but the credential --
O'REILLY: But I think it was a smart pick.
MORRIS: But the credential of secretary of state would make that candidacy so much more powerful.
O'REILLY: That I'm not sure. If there was a terror attack, it could work against her. All right, Dick Morris, everybody. Check out Fleeced for Christmas gifts.
MMFA - I luv ya, but you are wasting your time if you really want to go through a laundry list of times that Dick Morris has been wrong.
Fact is, he is not actually a commentor or even a political observer. He is simply there for FoxNews to call a "political commentator" so that he can fake credibility and instead simply push the latest set of Republican talking points.
In other words, he is just another hired gun. By my gosh, he does look foolish, doesn't he?
Has any prediction that The Dick made about any member of the Clinton family home to pass? Anything he says is guided by his hatred of them.
He predicted that he'd leave the country if an Obama / Clinton ticket formed. I say President / Secretary of State is close enough.
The Troglodytes just can't get past their Clinton fixation, can they?
Early last Spring, PigBoy Limbaugh stated emphatically that Hillary Clinton WOULD NOT allow anyone else to claim the Democratic nomination.... the fix was in, according to PigBoy.
Now, don't jump down my throat, everybody, but, even though we know Dickie is an idiot and I would NEVER believe anything he says, I have my own suspicions concerning Hillary. There is this tight, gnawing feeling in my stomach that says what a lot of other people are saying. I know, I know, we are not to think bad thoughts about any decision Obama makes at this point, but, God help me, I can't shake this...this...feeling. Hillary will not, cannot take "orders" from anyone. She is a powerful AND capable politician and I don't see her bending to the will of Obama on anything. So, go ahead. Pile on. Tell me I am stupid to have these doubts, that I am just a nervous nelly.
Could it be that you are buying into the caricature of Hillary that has been created by the Right Wing professional liars? Remember, they spent millions in the 90s demonizing her and her husband.... they have a lot invested in convincing you that she's a ruthless dragon lady.
Now, there may be some small truth in this cartoon version of Hillary, but I sincerely doubt that she's as bad as they would have us believe.
Oh, please believe me, Nerz, I know exactly what you are saying, but haven't you ever had this...feeling? You know what I mean. This, uh, feeling that you can't really explain? Now I have always been a big Clinton fan, both Bill and Hill and have followed their rise with great interest and sympathy. I agree with you 100% that I could be the victim of the Republican Hate the Clintons agenda, but I have always resisted anything "they" say, liars and spinners, all. I have watched Hilary's success with great admiration; after all, she was MY senator, too. But, something came out during the campaign that caught me off-guard. I didn't like what I saw. I hope, with all my heart, I am wrong.
I know what you mean. I've had a similar feeling all through the Bush administration... that these guys are lying, soulless thieves, and they're going to get away with murder. I think history will prove me right.
I have to admit that I got a little put off by Hillary's tactics late in the campaign. How much of it was just politics and how much was just plain ruthlessness is hard to say. I certainly hope she's sincere.... Obama has enough trouble without dissent in the ranks.
What was odd to me was how conservatives like Joe Scarborough and Pat Buchanan suddenly became raging Hillary fans after she started to resurge in the polls.
I just wanna see pictures of her nekkid, fat ankles and all. Mebbe a threesome with her, Palin and Bachmann. We could call the video "Cranky old b**tch and the wind tunnel ho's"...
Pullleeze, Snoopy, I haven't had my supper yet.
Oh, look! I just found Palin's mentor! Gives a whole new meaning to the term "T-i-i-i-i-m-m-m-m-b-e-e-e-r-r-r-!"
Remember that an intelligent politician usually knows how to pick their battles. If there's nothing to be gained by rebelling against Obama, then a capable politican won't do it.
If Obama can win two terms, then Biden will be too old to run in 2016. That would leave Hillary in a very strong position if she cooperates, and she surely realizes that. If Obama is beaten in 2012, then Biden's not a factor anyway, and her loyalty to Obama will be a major benefit in 2016. Running against him in 2012 would anger the base, and not only doom her chances that year, but for the next 12 years at least. And if that's the case, she might as well forget about going back to the Senate as well.
This is all pretty basic strategy. Even under the concept that she's conniving and shrewd, she would still probably take orders just fine.
I never understood this conniving and shrewd thing.
She likes to win, as does, well, just about anyone that I can think of. So, to the effect, she does what it takes (within the rules) to win when she runs. So far, except for the Presidential primary, she's done pretty well.
I see Hillary Clinton as a purpose driven woman, who likes to win, and is tenacious in her defense both of herself, and her ideas. I don't have a problem with her, and she's a lot smarter than to try and run against Obama in 2012, even IF he stinks up his first term.
I think she crossed some lines in the primary, but I largely agree with what you're saying. It comes off as sexist. If it's a man who takes no prisoners, then they're motivated, they "really want it", they're "playing the game" or "in it to win it", whatever. It seems to be understood that it's just about winning, that it doesn't say anything about reliablility in other areas. For Hillary, the same sort of behavior seems to mean she can't ever be trusted again. Maybe it has to do with the dreaded "Clinton" name instead, but either way I think there's some double-standard at hand.
I'll bite. You could be right. But 2 or 3 three things would have to come into play first - she's a shrewd opportunist, and would not run if the situation wasn't ripe for it.
1st and most importantly - The Obama administartion would have to be a disaster, or at least percieved as such. If the country is as bad or worse off 4 years from now - she'd definitely role the dice.
2nd: She have to either REALLY HATE being Sec of State; or be REALLY BAD at it; or constantly be butting heads with Obama over policy. All the same this may not matter if you don't have #1 as well as...
3rd: She'd have to be removed from the position. If Obama indicates sometime in 2011 that he plans to shift his cabinet around for his second term, and her position was on the block (esp after giving up her senate seat) then she might make a run out of retribtuion. But again: not if Obama is doing well. She'd only make a run if he's vulnerable.
And while I voted for him, and for the most part believe in his polocies, only time will tell. He could be FDR/JFK, and could just as easily be JEC. (That's James Earl Carter, BTW.) If so - she might do exactly what Ted Kennedy tried (but untlimately failed to do) in 1980. So Obama would have to look WORSE than Carter did in '80 for her to think she had a reasonable chance of even getting the nomination. Otherwise, she'd do the commentator circuit for 2-3 years and run in 2016.
Dick Morris should pray every night for Hillary Clinton's good health and well being because if anything ever happened to her his FOX television career, such that it is, would be down the toilet. In all fairness, Morris should share his FOX salary with Hillary.
Smear licensing. I like it. LOL.
" Hillary will not, cannot take "orders" from anyone. "
WTF? She did just that at her law firm for years, and has had no leadership position in the Senate whatsoever. In fact, a constant refrain from Obamaniacs at HuffPo and elsewhere is that she lost the Presidency, in part, because she was not a STRONG ENOUGH leader of her own campaign. What evidence (from a credible news source) to you cite to show that "Hillary will not, cannot take "orders" from anyone?" Other than your GUT?
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then. If little dick keeps throwing enough MBBE against a teflon wall, some is bound to stick, later rather than sooner.
Even a broken clock is still right twice a day?
Jeter,
I am of the same opinion regarding Morris.
ps. WITH?
"WITH?"
To provide a forum for you two to remind us how "yesterday" Morris is.
Hmmmm, "My friend Doc Holliday" or "My enemy Hillary Clinton". Seems like the right guy ends toes up dead either way...
"Or better yet just ignore the windbag"
Sounds like advice that's better off given to Hannity and Fox News, instead of some obscure website.
Come on Pete, if Fox didn't employ unreliable incompetent and dishonest windbags, they'd have to run cartoons 23 1/2 hours a day.Morris is in the same club as Novak, Kristol and the rest of the media gang. They have track records of analyzing and prognosticating that would have a small town tv station weatherman canned, but they'll say anything with a straight face, so they get a paycheck.
What I think he's doing is projecting hsi dog-eat-dog personality onto others. With Obama he was obviously wrong, since the man is the closest thing to progressivism incarnate among elected officials. I say "closest" because of things like war spending, coal, appointing conservative Democrats etc. Clinton on the other hand, during her presidential run against Obama, ran by the old playbook of cold facts and when it didn't work, turned to conservative styled fear-mongering with her 3 A.M. phone call ad.
The conservatives pulled a tricky move on her. The largely manufactured issue of how they will "get along" has a sexist undertone. She obviously sees the sexist subtext, but all they're really doing is baiting her. They're conflating self-improvement and learning (from Obama) with being a submissive "traditionalist" woman. She's being used by the Republicans as a pawn, just like in the campaign. If you don't believe me, go here: http://wikileaks.org/wiki/Divide_and_conquer:_McCain%27s_plan_to_wrest_Clintonion_women_from_Obama%3F .
I think the real quesiton is, how much will Clinton, Obama, and the Democratic Party in general learn about ever modernizing progressivism over the next four years. If there is any dispute with Obama, manufactured or otherwise, what will it be over? Who will be the liberal or the conservative in it?
This from the same idiot that wrote the book "HILLARY VS CONDI in 08".