Quinnipiac misrepresents own poll to assert broad disagreement with Sotomayor

A June 3 Quinnipiac University release misrepresented its own poll question to claim that "American voters ... disagree 71-19 percent with Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor's ruling in the New Haven firefighters' case [Ricci v. DeStefano], according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today." The headline of the Quinnipiac poll release similarly falsely claimed that "U.S. Voters Disagree 3-1 With Sotomayor On Key Case, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds." Likewise, during the June 3 edition of MSNBC's Morning Joe, co-host Willie Geist misrepresented the poll's findings, asserting, "77 percent disagree with Sotomayor in that firefighter ruling. They say diversity's not a good enough reason to rule against the firefighters in that case." On MSNBC Live, anchor Monica Novotny also claimed that the poll "found 71 percent disagreed with Judge Sotomayor's ruling on the New Haven case." In fact, the poll question did not ask about Sotomayor's position in the case, in which the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the city of New Haven's decision to decline to certify exams taken by firefighters seeking promotion after concluding that the results of the test established a prima facie case of liability under Title VII; rather, the poll asked respondents whether they thought the Supreme Court should uphold or reverse the 2nd Circuit's decision. The distinction is crucial. The opinion Sotomayor joined said that 2nd Circuit precedent interpreting Title VII's prohibitions on race discrimination in employment led the court to uphold the decision by the city of New Haven. By contrast, the Supreme Court can reach a decision on whether to uphold the decision without regard to 2nd Circuit precedent.

The Quinnipiac University poll question stated:

As you may know, the United States Supreme Court will be deciding a case involving New Haven, CT's use of promotion tests for firefighters. Because no blacks scored high enough to qualify for promotion, the city decided to throw the test out. Do you think the Supreme Court should uphold the city or order the city to promote the 14 white and one Hispanic firefighters who scored high enough for promotion?

The poll question did not ask respondents whether they agreed with Sotomayor that Second Circuit precedent led to the conclusion that the city of New Haven was complying with Title VII's prohibition on employment discrimination. The poll asked respondents whether they thought the Supreme Court should find for the city or the firefighters.

Moreover, the poll question itself misrepresented the city of New Haven's position in the case. New Haven argued in its Supreme Court brief that the city's civil service board conducted a review of the test results, which "raised further concerns that the tests had not in fact identified the most qualified candidates and suggested less-discriminatory alternatives," and that the city was "faced with examination results that had a severe disparate impact and evidence substantiating the inference of discrimination." Indeed, Supreme Court Justice David Souter -- whom Sotomayor would replace -- made comments during oral argument in which he identified what he said was a "damned if you do, damned if you don't situation" faced by the city of New Haven in its efforts to comply with Title VII's prohibitions on employment discrimination.

From the June 3 edition of MSNBC's Morning Joe:

GEIST: Talking about Judge Sotomayor, we have a new poll that just came into us -- Quinnipiac University poll -- about this New Haven firefighter case; the one thing that might cause her to get, you know, 89 votes instead of --

JOE SCARBOROUGH (host): Instead of 90.

GEIST: -- 90 votes.

SCARBOROUGH: Yeah.

GEIST: Let's see how people are responding to this. Do they disagree or agree with Sotomayor in the New Haven case? Do we have that poll? Oh, here it is: Seventy -- 77 percent disagree with Sotomayor in that firefighter ruling.

They say diversity's not a good enough reason --

MIKA BRZEZINSKI (co-host): That's interesting.

GEIST: -- to rule against the firefighters in that case.

SCARBOROUGH: And, by the way --

GEIST: So, interesting nugget.

From the June 3 edition of MSNBC Live:

CONTESSA BREWER (anchor): Sonia Sotomayor's controversial decision in that New Haven firefighters' case has sparked a new debate on affirmative action. Let's go to Monica at the politics desk with the result of a new poll that may surprise you -- Monica.

NOVOTNY: It does. The poll finds a majority of Americans want affirmative action abolished. Check out the numbers: 55 percent of those polled think we should do away with the practice; 36 percent say continue it.

Alicia Menendez is a Democratic strategist. John Feehery is a Republican strategist. John, I'll start with you. The same poll also found 71 percent disagreed with Judge Sotomayor's ruling on the New Haven case, but we've also seen polls that show that there's plenty of support for her nomination to the Supreme Court. Why do you think that is?

FEEHERY: Well, I think it's because Rush Limbaugh and Newt Gingrich led the Republican assault on her in a way that was not helpful to their cause.