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Goldberg ignores Bush's responsibility for $1 trillion deficit in 2009

September 01, 2009 9:43 am ET — 26 Comments

In a September 1 USA Today op-ed calling Republicans and Democrats "hypocrites for caring about the deficit," Jonah Goldberg wrote that "Obama's budget will have, for the first time, a single year deficit of $1 trillion," adding that "Obama's 2009 budget deficit will be greater than all of the Bush deficits from 2002 to 2007 combined." Absent from Goldberg's analysis was the fact that before President Obama took office or signed any legislation, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that, based on actions taken by President Bush and economic conditions at the time, the deficit for fiscal year 2009 would reach $1.2 trillion.

Goldberg: "Obama's budget will have, for the first time, a single year deficit of $1 trillion"

From Goldberg's September 1 USA Today op-ed:

Obama's budget will have, for the first time, a single year deficit of $1 trillion and, according to the Obama administration's own projections, the same stack will be over 600 miles high ($9 trillion) at the end of 10 years, and that might be optimistic. Obama's 2009 budget deficit will be greater than all of the Bush deficits from 2002 to 2007 combined, according to the Heritage Foundation's Brian Riedl. And none of this takes into account that Obama's health care ambitions, nevermind cap and trade, could swell the deficit much more, if realized. Nor does it take into account the fact that unless the economy revives, tax revenues will continue to plummet as they have been (this year saw the greatest drop-off of receipts since 1932), which would make the shortfall even worse.

Based on Bush's actions and economic conditions, CBO projected $1.2 trillion deficit on January 7

$1.2 trillion projection based on legislation Bush passed before Obama's inauguration. From CBO's January 2009 budget report, released on January 7:

The ongoing turmoil in the housing and financial markets has taken a major toll on the federal budget. CBO currently projects that the deficit this year will total $1.2 trillion, or 8.3 percent of GDP. That total, however, does not include the effects of any future legislation. Enactment of an economic stimulus package, for example, would add to the 2009 deficit. In any event, as a percentage of GDP, the deficit will most likely shatter the previous post-World War II record high of 6.0 percent posted in 1983.

A drop in tax revenues and increased federal spending (much of it related to the government's actions to address the crisis in the housing and financial markets) both contribute to the robust growth in this year's deficit. Compared with receipts last year, collections from corporate income taxes are anticipated to decline by 27 percent and individual income taxes by 8 percent; in normal economic conditions, they would both grow by several percentage points. In addition, the estimated deficit includes outlays of more than $180 billion to reflect the cost of transactions of the TARP.

The projected deficit for 2009 also incorporates CBO's estimate of the cost to the federal government of the recent takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Because those entities were created and chartered by the government, are responsible for implementing certain government policies, and are currently under the direct control of the federal government, CBO has concluded that their operations should be reflected in the federal budget. Recognizing the cost of the takeover adds about $200 billion (in discounted present-value terms) to the deficit this year, reflecting the long-term net cost of the more than $5 trillion in credit guarantees issued and loans held by those entities at the start of the fiscal year. In addition, the cost of Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's new credit activity in 2009 will total $38 billion, CBO estimates.

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    • Author by dexteritas0071418 (September 01, 2009 10:02 am ET)
      8 4
      Fair enough, Goldberg left out a pretty necessary caveat here.
      Report Abuse
    • Author by SLRTX (September 01, 2009 10:09 am ET)
      8 1
      Well, why in the world would Goldberg want to confuse everyone with the facts?
      Report Abuse
    • Author by terrapin53 (September 01, 2009 11:04 am ET)
      5 2
      Again, more BS from the right wing. FY 2009 is Bush's budget. Obama's starts in FY 2010 which starts on October 1 this year. You want to talk about borrowed money such as from TARP (Bush) or the stimulus bill (Obama), that's fine, but remember one-third of the stim bill was tax cuts. IDIOTS all.
      Report Abuse
      • Author by NiceguyEddie (September 01, 2009 11:48 am ET)
        9 1
        Not to mention - how much of Obama's deficit is due entirely to his BUDGETING for the war, as opposed to Bush's plan... which was to NOT HAVE A PLAN, and that way keep claiming that it's some kind of special, unforseen circumsyance... after EIGHT YEARS OF FIGHTING.
        Report Abuse
        • Author by terrapin53 (September 01, 2009 12:04 pm ET)
          3 1
          Good point, Eddie, but don't you mean wars instead of war. :)
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          • Author by NiceguyEddie (September 01, 2009 12:27 pm ET)
            5 1
            Well, yeah, I guess. Although really I truly just meant IRAQ - as that's tho only war you can truly, clearly, and completely blame on Bush/Cheney and Bush/Cheney alone. But since this IS a budgetting thread, YES, you're right: both wars should be considered.
            Report Abuse
    • Author by terrapin53 (September 01, 2009 12:06 pm ET)
      8 1
      Don't you also like how starting in Jan. 20th all these budgets suddently became peace time budgets. Seems all these whackos conveniently forget we are in 2 wars.
      Report Abuse
      • Author by NiceguyEddie (September 01, 2009 2:15 pm ET)
        5 1
        You can't blame them... I mean it's not like they were part of Bush's regular budgets, or ever factored into Bush's deficits...
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    • Author by rwmacdonald2091 (September 01, 2009 12:12 pm ET)
      2 1
      The national debt was about 5.5 trillion in 2001, at the end of 2008 about 11.5 trillion. By my arithmetic that's 6 trillion.

      Last I looked 6 trillion is quite a bit more than 1.2 trillion for this years debt.

      the moral of this is whatever you do don't let this right clown Goldberg balance your checkbook !
      Report Abuse
      • Author by National_Insecurity (September 01, 2009 1:17 pm ET)
        6 1
        Let's be fair and call it $5.2 trillion in Bush debt as I recall the baseline was $6.5 trillion debt the day Bush took office, and there was a budget surplus that fiscal year.

        For some reason Republicans never know that Bush had $5 trillion in debt as it was never mentioned on FauxNews. Nor do they seem to recall the 2001 hearings on the surplus where there was palpable fear of paying off the federal debt in 8 years possibly causing deflation.

        It was that largess that prompted the Bush tax cuts - also known as the Leave No Billionaire Behind, the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of the U.S. to the fewest number of people. The Koch family funding of AEI, Heritages, Cato, et al paid off bigtime.1
        Report Abuse
        • Author by NoSpinner (September 01, 2009 3:05 pm ET)
          2 1
          Jonah Goldberg's article is very misleading.
          According to this article from CBS,
          Bush Administration Adds $4 Trillion To National Debt.
          At least it is 4 trillion. I think the discrepancy between the 4 trillion and 5 trillion may be because during the Bush years, Social Security was taking in more than it was doling out, so that may have reduced the deficit for Bush by about a trillion. That won't be the case going forwards as baby boomers enter retirement.
          Report Abuse
    • Author by Liberal Leader (September 01, 2009 12:38 pm ET)
      3 1
      What was Bush's 2008 deficit Jonah? Did you know Jonah that the 2002-2007 Bush deficits did not include war costs? 2008 was the first year the Bush budget acknowledged war costs. Also Jonah, did you know that the Bush budget of 2008 projected extending the Bush tax cuts costing $1.6 trillion over the next 10 years? Also, considering that the NBER concluded the recession began in Dec. 2007, do you think a sharp decline in tax receipts have anything to do with Obama's 2009 deficit? Do you care about any of these things or do you get paid to just distort reality with half truths? I think your record is clear on that question so you don't have to answer.
      Report Abuse
      • Author by National_Insecurity (September 01, 2009 1:19 pm ET)
        2 1
        Jonah is paid good money to distort facts. I wish I were that smart, all I know how to do is research and analyze facts. Oh, and invent new medical devices, but that's reality-based.
        Report Abuse
    • Author by the Grey Path (September 01, 2009 1:46 pm ET)
      4 1
      Grover Norquist is laughing himself to death right now. This debt is the Norquist's plan to bankrupt the government so it has to shrink to a size "where we can squash it like a bug."
      Report Abuse
    • Author by pros2pros2940 (September 01, 2009 3:28 pm ET)
      4 1
      want to drive a conservative crazy, tell them Ronnie Reagan raised taxes 7 times and watch their head explode.

      Reagan / Bush I nearly tripled the debt and Bush / Cheney doubled it....true fiscal conservatives....(kidding)

      Here's an honest republican who worked for Reagan ;

      Reagan may have resisted calls for tax increases, but he ultimately supported them.

      In 1982 alone, he signed into law not one but two major tax increases. The Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act (TEFRA) raised taxes by $37.5 billion per year and the Highway Revenue Act raised the gasoline tax by another $3.3 billion.

      According to a recent Treasury Department study, TEFRA alone raised taxes by almost 1 percent of the gross domestic product, making it the largest peacetime tax increase in American history. An increase of similar magnitude today would raise more than $100 billion per year.

      In 1983, Reagan signed legislation raising the Social Security tax rate.(doubled it actually)

      This is a tax increase that lives with us still, since it initiated automatic increases in the taxable wage base. As a consequence, those with moderately high earnings see their payroll taxes rise every single year.

      In 1984, Reagan signed another big tax increase in the Deficit Reduction Act.

      This raised taxes by $18 billion per year or 0.4 percent of GDP. A similar-sized tax increase today would be about $44 billion.

      The Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985 raised taxes yet again.

      Even the Tax Reform Act of 1986, which was designed to be revenue-neutral, contained a net tax increase in its first 2 years.

      And the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1987 raised taxes still more.

      The year 1988 appears to be the only year of the Reagan presidency, other than the first, in which taxes were not raised legislatively. Of course, previous tax increases remained in effect. According to a table in the 1990 budget, the net effect of all these tax increases was to raise taxes by $164 billion in 1992, or 2.6 percent of GDP. This is equivalent to almost $300 billion in today's economy.

      http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_bartlett/bartlett200310290853.asp
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      • Author by fairliberal (September 02, 2009 2:36 am ET)
        4 2
        "want to drive a conservative crazy, tell them Ronnie Reagan raised taxes 7 times and watch their head explode."


        Want to drive a liberal crazy, compare the tax rates of the Reagan administration to the Carter administration.
        Report Abuse
        • Author by highliter (September 02, 2009 5:30 pm ET)
             
          Not to mention the fact that the Dem controlled congress so he had to eat some tax raises he didn’t like in order to get other thing he liked through.
          Report Abuse
      • Author by terrapin53 (September 02, 2009 9:48 am ET)
           
        My problem with the Reagan tax cuts is they were tilted towards the higher income earners. If I remember right, didn't Reagan take away a lot of deductions from income. Certain interest payments like car loans and credit cards, certain medical expenses, etc. By doing that, my net income increased so of course so did my tax liability under Mr. Reagan.

        Looking the tax tables from back then the big rate cuts were all at the top.
        Report Abuse
    • Author by oscar the grouch (September 01, 2009 8:39 pm ET)
      1 1
      And more than a few of us received rather condescending letters from our Representative when we pointed those things out in 2006, 2007 & 2008. I'm sure if I wrote the same letter today, our Representative (R) would be more in agreement with the same topics. Novemember 2010, turn them all out. Time to start over.
      Report Abuse
      • Author by fairliberal (September 02, 2009 2:37 am ET)
        2 5
        All indications are that in 2010, it is the dimocrats that will be turned out.
        Report Abuse
        • Author by peace4all (September 02, 2009 8:14 am ET)
          4  
          really? ALL indications? you wouldn't mind posting a few of those indications would you. it's hard just to go by "cuz you said"
          Report Abuse
          • Author by highliter (September 02, 2009 5:33 pm ET)
               
            How about Obamas approval rating tanking. At this point in his admin his approval rating is lower than Nixons Carters Regans Clintons and Bushes.
            Report Abuse

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