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Will, Brooks mislead on deficit reduction in health care reform

March 14, 2010 12:51 pm ET — 28 Comments

Columnists George Will and David Brooks both claimed that the deficit reduction provisions of the Senate health care bill are, in Brooks' words, "totally bogus" because "it has 10 years of taxes and six years of benefits." In fact, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated that the Senate bill will not only reduce budget deficits through 2019, but will continue to reduce deficits in the following decade.

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Will, Brooks claim deficit reduction is "bogus" and due to "10 years of taxes and six years of benefits"

Brooks: "[A] lot of the deficit control is totally bogus." Appearing on the March 14 edition of NBC's Meet the Press, Brooks said he "lean[s] against" health care reform, in part because "a lot of the deficit control is totally bogus." Brooks added: "We're [going to] have 10 years of revenue to pay for six years of costs."

Will: Legislation's deficit reduction is due to "accounting gimmicks." On the March 14 edition of ABC's This Week, host Jake Tapper said to Will, "[F]ormer Congressman Ray LaHood ... has an op-ed in the Chicago Tribune today talking about why, as a member of the House, he would have voted for this bill, because this bill reduces the deficit, and it also brings down health care costs and it will make insurance more affordable. Do you believe that he would have voted for it as a Republican congressman?" Will replied: "Not a bit. It reduces the deficit because you have 10 years of taxes and six years of benefits and other accounting gimmicks."

In fact, CBO has estimated Senate and House bills will continue to reduce deficits after 2019

CBO expects Senate bill to continue deficit reduction during decade after 2019. From the March 11 CBO estimate of the Senate health care bill:

CBO expects that the legislation, if enacted, would reduce federal budget deficits over the decade after 2019 relative to those projected under current law -- with a total effect during that decade that is in a broad range between one-quarter percent and one-half percent of GDP. That judgment is unchanged from CBO's previous assessment, and the imprecision of that calculation reflects the even greater degree of uncertainty that attends to it, compared with CBO's 10-year budget estimates.

CBO estimated the House bill will also result in deficit reductions in the decade after 2019. From the November 6 CBO estimate:

According to CBO and JCT's assessment, enacting H.R. 3962 would result in a net reduction in federal budget deficits of $109 billion over the 2010-2019 period (see Table 1) [this estimate was later updated to $138 billion over the same period]. In the subsequent decade, the collective effect of its provisions would probably be slight reductions in federal budget deficits. Those estimates are all subject to substantial uncertainty.

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    • Author by oscar the grouch (March 14, 2010 1:30 pm ET)
      1 5
      Did notice that CBO put a disclaimer on the second decade "savings." Still searching for a government program that second decade costs were what was estimated (or less). I'll believe the second decade costs at the end of the second decade, just as I will believe CBOs numbers regarding the first decade at the end of said decade.
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      • Author by The_Cat (March 14, 2010 2:12 pm ET)
        5  
        I think the larger point, oscar the grouch, is that even as a break-even proposition, it is still far cheaper than doing nothing. I'd be willing to bet that, over the next twenty years, it will still turn out to be cheaper than continuing to let the insurance industry run things all their own way. The nice part? If it turns out to be an abysmal failure, nobody will use it and it won't cost anything. If it turns out to be hideously expensive, we can always vote in folks to repeal it. Almost anything is better than the current system, though.
        Report Abuse
        • Author by oscar the grouch (March 15, 2010 12:49 am ET)
          1 2
          Oh, I'm not arguing that something doesn't need to be done. However, I think it can be done less expensively and still achieve the desired results. I think that unless each of us has some stake in our healthcare costs (co-pays, high deductibles, HSAs, etc), costs will not come down, unless forced by cost controls. (Those have certainly worked well in the past). Sure, we can limit payments to the health care professionals, but there will be a point at which we will suffer shortages of trained providers (early retirements, fewer coming in at the entry level, etc.) That will lead to rationing of healthcare or higher fees, etc. And if one would factor in what happened to our "entitlement" programs following the high inflation period of the late 70s, early 80s, one would see that costs will explode. What happens when "entitlements" become 90% (more or less) of the budget? I guess I really shouldn't care, as I probably won't be around, but I care for the children, grandchildren of this country and I see there is a good chance they will not be living a good a life as my generation or possibly even my parents generation (the one that lived through the Great Depression and struggled to make things better for us). Based on the impression that our economy is moving more each day from a value added to a service economy, what lies ahead?
          Report Abuse
          • Author by congero6189599 (March 15, 2010 12:02 pm ET)
            1  
            What happens we have the bloated military budget,that keeps growing and growing and growing,lets cut it.
            Report Abuse
      • Author by DellDolly (March 14, 2010 3:57 pm ET)
        5 4
        So, you can NAME gov't programs that didn't change in the second decade and cost more?

        Please do. Because that's what the projections are based upon.

        The CBO is not saying "no matter what changes/additions get made to this HCR, it'll reduce the deficit", you doofus. It's saying that THIS program, AS CONFIGURED currently, will cost less than doing nothing.

        So stop distorting reality and making strawman arguments about other programs that were greatly expanded and therefore cost much more than the original configuration!
        Report Abuse
        • Author by mrhebert74 (March 14, 2010 5:41 pm ET)
          3  
          You're way off base here. The fact that something bad could, at some point in the future, happen, is why we have to wet our beds about taking action now.
          Report Abuse
        • Author by bludog1 (March 15, 2010 1:04 pm ET)
             
          Then don't tout the CBO projections as being an indication of what might happen. You just cut confidence in the proponents argument of a trillion or so positive impact in the decade to pieces.
          Report Abuse
    • Author by whatIthink (March 14, 2010 2:04 pm ET)
      5  
      Sometime I wonder why bother having an organization like the CBO when everybody is going to second guess them anyway? It's like going to your doctor and getting a diagnosis and then tellig the doctor he's full of it because you heard something different from your neighbor who went to see their doctor who told them something different. Or going to see your doctor and getting his diagnosis and then telling him he's full of it because he's not telling you what you want to hear. I'm not saying that there is no room for questios, but that shouldn't cross the line into directly rejecting or disregarding what is submitted just because it doesn't fit a desired conclusion.
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    • Author by MagCynic (March 14, 2010 2:36 pm ET)
      3 10
      The CBO does not have a good track record for their projections. Bills shouldn't be argued for because the CBO says it will save us money or break even. What they have to do is incredibly difficult and inaccurate. Instead use historical metrics and common sense to determine the merit of a particular bill.
      Report Abuse
      • Author by bilbo_dies (March 14, 2010 3:29 pm ET)
        9 3
        From your link:

        It is inevitable that some of CBO's output will be wrong and some of it will be annoying to one political party or the other, either because mistakes were made or good analysis was badly timed. But if one adds up the impressive volume of CBO cost estimates, analyses, and forecasts, a remarkably high portion is non-controversial and a remarkably low portion really makes someone angry.

        The current blog post is about how Will and Brooks are distorting facts in order to push their viewpoint/agenda. It isn't about the CBOs job of providing cost estimates on proposed legislation.
        Report Abuse
      • Author by Disputed Zone (March 14, 2010 3:52 pm ET)
        5  
        The most relevant portion of the testimony:

        The 75-year forecast used by the Social Security trustees is bound to be off by huge amounts in dollar terms, but it is unlikely to be wrong about its basic qualitative conclusion that the economic burden of supporting the Social Security system will rise rapidly between 2010 and 2030. Similarly, flaws in economic forecasts are unlikely to obscure the qualitative nature of the budget effects of a tax cut or an entitlement increase. That is to say, if an entitlement increase is shown to cost very much more in year 7 than in year 4 by a good forecast, roughly the same pattern of costs is likely to be revealed by a bad forecast as well. Put yet another way, forecasts of changes in a baseline due to policy changes are likely to be more accurate than forecasts of the baseline itself.


        And the CBO says these policy changes will improve the baseline. Thanks for the link.
        Report Abuse
      • Author by DellDolly (March 14, 2010 4:02 pm ET)
        3 4
        Budgets are entirely different than programs like this.

        But you already knew that, didn't you?
        Report Abuse
        • Author by bludog1 (March 15, 2010 1:07 pm ET)
          2 1
          are the different for Medicare? For Medicaid? Both of which are nearing bankruptcy. Oh, but aren't they to be included in the new healthcare proposal?
          Report Abuse
      • Author by whatIthink (March 14, 2010 5:51 pm ET)
        6 3
        The point is that when the bills were first introduced, the conservatives were crying for the CBO to "score" them before Democrats made any claims. Once the CBO did score them and it did in fact align with what the Democrats were saying, that's when the second guessing and dimissals of the CBO, their methodlogy and non-partisanship started to be questioned...by conservatives.
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      • Author by Bobby Jindal fan (March 14, 2010 10:55 pm ET)
        1 7
        Didn't BHO say that if we passed his pork, errr. I mean stimulus bill that unemployment wouldn't go over 8 percent? He certainly got his numbers wrong on that one. Why should we trust his numbers now.

        Anyone who believes this bill would cut the deficit is delusional. Why did the Dems take the doctor fix off budget? In and of itself this is a lie - they are monkeying with the numbers?

        If they attached the doctor fix to the bill, would the CBO say it is deficit neutral? What a load of total crap!

        Everything about this administration is phony!
        Report Abuse
        • Author by congero6189599 (March 15, 2010 12:08 pm ET)
          1 1
          Everything about this administration is phony! ----Bobby "the exorcist" Jindal Fan

          This said from the exorcist fan. LOL!
          Report Abuse
        • Author by angels4light (March 15, 2010 12:35 pm ET)
          1  
          Ummm, wasn't that said before he was inaugurated, and wasn't unemployment already OVER 8% by the time he WAS inaugurated? Or is that not important? And then there is the issue that the bill was not actually HIS, but rather came from the house and senate - of which he was no longer a member due to the 2008 presidential election...
          Report Abuse
        • Author by Tbone Slickens (March 16, 2010 1:09 pm ET)
             
          Didn't BHO say that if we passed his pork, errr. I mean stimulus bill that unemployment wouldn't go over 8 percent?


          Why yes Barry did make that statement several times with conviction! Now that is has plowed into double digit territory and hovers about 10% Barry and his willing minions in the media are trying to plant the seed that this is the new NORM in America.

          Barry has been so focused on this health care boondoggle that he's letting the economy run through the open gates.
          Report Abuse
    • Author by angels4light (March 14, 2010 2:45 pm ET)
      5  
      No matter how often, well or thoroughly it is debunked, it seems some will cling to their belief that it will be a government takeover of healthcare, or have 10 years of taxes for 6 of benefits, or of course the ubiquitous death panels, or public funding of elective abortions, etc. What is most tragic is these same people claim to have no idea what is in the bill, it is too large or far reaching, nobody has read it, nobody CAN read it, and so on. And the tragic part? All they have to do is go to the bills (one of which has been online 75+ days) and read it. But that would call for reading comprehension - something sadly lacking in so many these days.
      Report Abuse
      • Author by Bobby Jindal fan (March 14, 2010 10:53 pm ET)
          7
        I have read it. If you believe creating a new $2 trillion entitlement (damn, that is an offensive term) will reduce the deficit, I have some beachfront property in Kansas I'd like to sell you. We are going to insure millions of more people (many of them illegal) and it is going to reduce the deficit?!? THe most offensive aspect of this bill is that BHO thinks I am stupid. He thinks I am stupid enough to believe it is deficit neutral. Perhaps some people have ODed on his KoolAid enough to believe this nonsense, but the more sober among us know it is a flat out lie.

        It is something of a Sissyphean endeavour to convince some of you to look at the objective numbers, but if you do, you will realize every claim BHO makes is entirely specious.

        Read page 2069. I dare you. Read that page and tell me that killing babies at taxpayer expense is not in this bill. It clearly is.

        IT is completely true, that they are factoring ten years of revenue against six years of spending. What happens in the four out years?

        And death panels most certainly are in the bill. They are called QARS (Quality Adjusted Remaining Years). A bureaucrat panel will decide whether if is cost efficient to treat you. If it is not, you will be denied life saving medical care. This is a death panel and it is precise the item to which Gov. Palin was referring when she rang the alarm bell on teh death panels.

        We should leave healthcare as it is. I trust the insurance companies FAR more than I do the government. The government is incompetent and corrupt.

        This bill would be an unmitigated disaster. This bill is the first incremental step toward a complete governmen takeover of healthcare -- how do I know this? Barney Frank explicitly stated as much. I appreciate Barney's honesty and candor (he is more of a man that little Barry Hussein Soetero), but this bill would ruin this country.
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        • Author by DellDolly (March 15, 2010 2:36 am ET)
          4 4
          As per usual, this dishonest troll is lying about QARYS, and whether or not ANY healthcare reform bill being considered will USE that scale to deny treatment.

          There ARE no death panels. Never have been. It's a lie. And Stupak's interpretation of what the bill says and allows WRT abortion has been debunked countless times, so you're lying about what page 2069 says.

          And he also lies by omission, by discussing how much this new program will cost without taking into consideration how much doing nothing will cost and how some of the costs of the reform is covered.

          The CBO is not stupid or incompetent, and so they HAVE done all the calculations they should have, and HCR will REDUCE the deficit.

          If he doesn't understand HOW that will happen, then he's just too uneducated to deserve much attention here, so please, don't feed this troll.
          Report Abuse
          • Author by kalentros (March 15, 2010 11:53 am ET)
            3  
            I wish these idiots who keep sprouting the phrase "death panel" would actually have to make those kinds of decisions for someone they care about.

            Let them have to make the decision to cut off a loved one's leg to save their life from infection, then argue with the insurance company whether it was a needed procedure. Let them have to spend Christmas in a hospital because their loved one has a flu virus and they're so weakened by their "pre-existing condition" that there's a good chance they'll die.

            Let's see how they react when the private insurance company drops said loved one because the expense of prolonged care is becoming "cost prohibitive". Then rush to try and get them on the VA or Medicare because you can't afford to keep them in their nursing facility.

            Finally, let them have to make the decision whether or not to try a risky procedure that you're told they probably won't survive, do another procedure that may keep them alive for a little while longer but probably won't work anyway, or let end come as it does and have the doctors just try and make them comfortable.

            Let them have to do those things and then continue to throw around the phrase "death panel".

            I did all that...then a few months later turned 30 and had been doing those things since I was 16.
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    • Author by mrhebert74 (March 14, 2010 5:43 pm ET)
      4 1
      10 - 6 = 4. The fact that 4 is not 0 is "totally bogus."
      Report Abuse
    • Author by Tim (March 14, 2010 8:24 pm ET)
         
      "10 - 6 = 4. The fact that 4 is not 0 is "totally bogus."

      Nobody is saying that it is. What they are saying is that 10 years of revenues and 10 years of costs = a deficit reduction of of 116 billion dollars a year.
      Brooks' and Wills' statements are 'bogus' because they imply that the deficit reductions are only produced becauseof the difference in revenue years and cost years.
      Report Abuse
    • Author by Jose4 (March 15, 2010 9:18 am ET)
        5
      As soon as the health care bill passes, amnesty for undocumented workers will follow.

      Congress knows that if amnesty occurs first, the deficit numbers will skyrocket.

      Report Abuse
    • Author by angels4light (March 15, 2010 12:31 pm ET)
         
      I just wish someone would counter the 10 years of taxes for 6 years of benefits claim. What taxes start in the first year? Or even in the first 6 years?
      Report Abuse

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