Varney absurdly claims public sector jobs saved by the stimulus "weren't in jeopardy"
On Fox & Friends, Stuart Varney attempted to discredit the estimates of jobs saved or created by the stimulus by claiming that they are "all theory" and that public sector jobs saved by stimulus funds "weren't in jeopardy." In fact, thousands of jobs were in jeopardy due to state budget shortfalls, and the White House's estimates of job creation are similar to independent estimates.
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Varney makes absurd claim that jobs "weren't in jeopardy" due to state budget shortfalls
Varney: "Those jobs weren't in jeopardy." On the July 16 edition of Fox News' Fox & Friends, guest Stuart Varney attempted to discredit job creation estimates by the White House by claiming that public sector jobs threatened by state budget shortfalls "weren't in jeopardy." From Fox & Friends:
DOOCY: We also know that when they say "saved or created," that metric simply has never been used before and they're making that up.
VARNEY: How do you prove it? How do you prove that we saved this job? How on earth do you prove such a thing? That's political spin.
KILMEADE: Is the easy answer is that if you give the states this money, they are able to keep teachers employed , they are able to keep workers employed. Is that the way you save a job?
VARNEY: Assuming that those jobs were in jeopardy in the first place. Were we really going to lay off 10,000 teachers or what ever it was? Those jobs weren't in jeopardy.
Varney: Job creation estimates are "all theory." Also during the segment, co-host Alisyn Camerota told Varney that "The CBO backs up some of what the Vice President said. I think the CBO said - which is nonpartisan - Congressional Budget Office says 2 million jobs. So maybe this is just a PR problem. Maybe the jobs really have been created but the public just doesn't know it." Varney responded "No, no, it was a theory. They didn't go out and count the jobs. They stuck information into a computer model...That's all theory. What we do know for a fact is that since the stimulus plan was passed, a net 2.5 million jobs have been lost from the US economy."
Stimulus funds credited for creating or saving numerous public sector jobs
CEA: COPS stimulus grants "will keep an additional 4,699 police officers on the streets." In its July 14 quarterly report on the stimulus' economic impact, the Council of Economic Advisors stated:
The Department of Justice's Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS) received $1 billion to pay up to 3 years of full salary and benefits for newly hired law enforcement officers or to rehire officers who had been laid off due to budget cuts. The program received more than 7,000 applications from local law enforcement agencies within two months of the Recovery Act's passage, and made 1,046 awards that will keep an additional 4,699 police officers on the streets. The Office of Justice Programs will allocate another $2 billion to support state and local law enforcement agencies in high crime areas.
Center on Education Policy report: "[N]early two-thirds of all school districts have used the federal stimulus money...to save or create teaching jobs in the 2009-10 school year." A July 15 report by the Center on Education Policy, titled, "School Districts' Perspectives on the Economic Stimulus Package: Teaching Jobs Saved in 2009-10 But Teacher Layoffs Loom for Next School Year" found:
While nearly two-thirds of all school districts have used the federal stimulus money from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) to save or create teaching jobs in the 2009-10 school year, as many as three quarters of the nation's school districts expect to cut teaching jobs in 2010-11 due to budget decreases, according to a new survey of districts released today by the Center on Education Policy (CEP).
Local reporting cites stimulus funds in saving firefighter jobs. Local reporting from across the country confirms that firefighters' jobs have been saved as a direct result of stimulus funding.
Reporting confirms budget shortfalls put thousands of jobs in jeopardy
USA Today: "State and local governments plan many more layoffs to close wide budget gaps." A July 5 USA Today article wrote:
State and local governments plan many more layoffs to close wide budget gaps.
Up to 400,000 workers could lose jobs in the next year as states, counties and cities grapple with lower revenue and less federal funding, says Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com.
AP: States are responding to budget shortfalls by "cutting services and laying off employees." A July 3 Associated Press article reported that state employee job security is "gone, too. States and municipalities are facing gaping budget gaps. Many have responded by slashing services, raising taxes and, for the first time in decades, making deep job cuts."
CSM reports steep job loses due to state budget shortfalls. An October 2009 Christian Science Monitor article reported that:
According to a tally by IHS Global Insight, an economic consulting firm, state and local governments have now lost 160,000 jobs over the past four months. IHS notes that this month, 29,000 of those losses came in state and local education.
[...]
Although the unemployment rate rose, it could have been much worse since an increasing number of people are dropping out of the workforce, says Brown. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, civilian labor force participation rate declined by 0.3 percent in September to 65.2 percent.
Independent analysts agree stimulus significantly raised employment over what would have happened otherwise
CEA: Recovery Act "has raised employment relative to what it otherwise would have been by between 2.5 and 3.6 million." The CEA report estimated that as of the second quarter of 2010, the Recovery Act, "has raised employment relative to what it otherwise would have been by between 2.5 and 3.6 million." CEA also included a chart of private and independent analysts' estimates of the Recovery Act's impact on employment:
CBO estimates job impact of between 1.4 and 3.4 million. According to the CEA chart, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the Recovery Act raised employment by 1.4 to 3.4 million as of the second quarter of 2010.
IHS/Global Insight estimates job impact of 2.1 million. According to the CEA chart, IHS/Global Insight estimates that the Recovery Act raised employment by 2.1 million as of the second quarter of 2010.
Moody's Economy.com estimates job impact of 2.2 million. The CEA chart shows that Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy.com estimates that the Recovery Act raised employment by 2.2 million as of the second quarter of 2010.
Macroeconomic Advisers estimates job impact of 1.8 million. The CEA chart noted that Macroeconomic Advisers estimates that the Recovery Act raised employment by 1.8 million as of the second quarter of 2010.
AP: "[G]rowing body of independent economic analysis suggests the law has boosted jobs." A July 14 Associated Press article about the White House's stimulus figures stated that while "exactly how many jobs" the Recovery Act has created "is a matter of dispute," "a growing body of independent economic analysis suggests the law has boosted jobs and kept people off the unemployment line."
Had Obama done nothing, and the economy would have fallen down ever harder, he would have gotten blamed for not doing enough to avoid a second Great Depression. But since Obama actually did respond with a Stim package which helped avoid such a disaster, he's done way too much.
Either way, he's damned in the eyes of Fox. And by the way, Stuart Varney is an imbecile.
And I'd add that had Obama done nothing, the damage to our long-term economic future would have been much worse if we had a Second Depression over increased deficit spending. We'd have had much worse unemployment, many more foreclosures, many more people desperate to survive and too many children much less likely to thrive - the cost to our nation from all those things would be much more devastating than anything that Obama did! The fools at FoxNews fail to fully inform their viewers to inform them of the costs of doing nothing when they talk about the 'costs' of what Obama did!
It's just inflating it more than it is that I take issue with. Spin and all this job "saving" stuff is just theoretical nonsense.
It's standard economic work. They use historical data and relate one thing to another. It's always been this way - they don't literally count every unemployed person, you know.
Objecting to their results on this basis is dishonest and disingenuous, and EXACTLY what we've come to expect from you.
There's NO evidence that they've inflated it to more than it is.
But there's PLENTY of evidence that YOUR side of the aisle continues to minimize it unfairly! Stuart Varney in particular in THIS rant!
I don't give a damn if you accept it or not. You do what you're told here.
Yet both groups do/did the SAME exact analysis.
You don't know what you're talking about here when you assert that it's the source that fouls the result.
But that's your job as a paid troll - to be dishonest.
Recipients report that about 640,000 jobs were created or retained with ARRA funding through September 2009. Such reports, however, do not provide a comprehensive estimate of the law’s impact on employment in the United States. That impact may be higher or lower than the reported number for several reasons (in addition to any issues about the quality of the data in the reports). First, it is impossible to determine how many of the reported jobs would have existed in the absence of the stimulus package.
They can't give one a firm number for the number of jobs literally being created by that funding. But they aren't trying to.
It's NOT impossible to come up with a range!
Thanks for PROVING what I've been saying all along, doofus! I swear, sometimes you're entirely clueless.
"First, it is impossible to determine how many of the reported jobs would have existed in the absence of the stimulus package" - CBO.
I would say "impossible" is pretty good evidence.
You don't even know what you're quoting or what it's talking about.
It's SOLELY talking about the number of jobs directly attributable to stimulus dollars - it can't tell you an EXACT number.
But it doesn't NEED to tell us an exact number. They tell us a RANGE.
Do you REALLY think that every jobs number they give us that happens to always end in a very round number, like 60,000, means that exactly 60,000 people got jobs or lost jobs? Of course not. They use estimates and aggregations and historical data and come up with a number. But it's not an exact number, doofus!
I'm still waiting...
Still waiting...
You don't have them do you? Even if you did, I could do the same end-around like you just did and dispute your "facts". If Obama said something was white, you'd say it was black. No wait, you say he was a communist and a racist, then say it was black.
Fine MMfA, if you link to the same funding for one state's firefighters as "across the country".
However, it's still undeniably true that firefighters' jobs HAVE BEEN SAVED across the nation.
Firefighter Jobs: $500 million to retain, rehire, and hire firefighters across the United States. According to the International Association of Firefighters, nearly 6,000 firefighters have been laid off or are subject to layoffs. An additional 6,000 positions have been lost through attrition. Any unused funds may be transferred to firefighter assistance equipment grants.
Isn't it interesting that they never present any evidence, God forbid scientific evidence, that the stimulus failed. Can't he see that the crisis was caused by Republican policies and not Obama and the Dems?