Carlson Pushes Myth That The Stimulus Failed

On Fox & Friends, co-host Gretchen Carlson falsely suggested that the stimulus did not work. In fact, independent experts agree that the stimulus significantly boosted employment and GDP.

Carlson: “Democrats Believe That Spending And Putting More Stimulus Money Into The Economy Is What Will Create Jobs ... So Far, Nothing Is Working”

Carlson: “The Democrats Believe That Spending And Putting More Stimulus Money Into The Economy Is What Will Create Jobs ... So Far, Nothing Is Working For The Economy.” On the August 4 edition of Fox News' Fox & Friends, Carlson claimed that the stimulus has not “work[ed] for the economy.” From the broadcast:

CARLSON: It goes back to ideology again. We talked about this yesterday. I mean, the Democrats believe that spending and putting more stimulus money into the economy is what will create jobs, and the Republicans disagree. It is all about ideology. So I guess we'll have to find out which one works. So far, nothing is working with the economy.

STEVE DOOCY (co-host): Keynesian doesn't work for us. [Fox News, Fox & Friends, 8/4/11]

In Fact, Economists Agree Stimulus Has Significantly Boosted Employment And GDP

CBO: Stimulus Has Raised Employment By 1.2 To 3.3 Million. A May 2011 report by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that as of the first quarter of 2011, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) lowered the unemployment rate “by between 0.6 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points,” compared to what would have happened in the absence of the stimulus. From the report:

CBO estimates that ARRA's policies had the following effects in the first quarter of calendar year 2011:

  • They raised real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) by between 1.2 and 3.1 percent,
  • Lowered the unemployment rate by between 0.6 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points,
  • Increased the number of people employed by between 1.2 million and 3.3 million, and
  • Increased the number of full-time-equivalent jobs by 1.6 million to 4.6 million compared with what would have occurred otherwise (see Table 1). (Increases in FTE jobs include shifts from part-time to full-time work or overtime and are thus generally larger than increases in the number of employed workers). [Congressional Budget Office, May 2011]

Private Analysts Estimate That Stimulus Increased GDP By 1.8 To 2.7 Percent. In its seventh quarterly report on ARRA, the president's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) estimated that the stimulus “has raised the level of GDP as of the first quarter of 2011, relative to what it otherwise would have been, by between 2.3 and 3.2 percent.” CEA also provided a chart showing that private analysts estimate that the stimulus boosted GDP between 1.8 and 2.7 percent:

stimulus chart

[Council of Economic Advisers, 7/1/11]

Private Analysts Estimate That Stimulus Increased Employment By 2.4 To 2.5 Million. In its report, the CEA provided the following chart showing that private forecasters estimate that as of the first quarter of 2011, the stimulus increased employment between 2.4 and 2.5 million:

stimulus 2

[Council of Economic Advisers, 7/1/11]