Fox Business is questioning the credibility of Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi after he estimated that President Obama's jobs plan would create nearly two million jobs, arguing that "every other economist in the world" disagrees. In fact, many economists have said that the American Jobs Act would create millions of jobs.
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Fox Business: "Every Other Economist In The World" Thinks Mark Zandi's Estimate Is "Absurd"
Fred Barnes And Lou Dobbs Laugh At Zandi's Prediction Of American Jobs Act Impact. On Lou Dobbs Tonight, Fox contributor Fred Barnes and host Lou Dobbs discussed the fact that Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi predicted that the President Obama's jobs bill would create nearly two million jobs:
BARNES: President Obama has been going around saying that independent economists -- and that's plural, economists -- agree with him that his jobs bill will create nearly two million jobs and create more growth by 2 percent. Well, the White House actually produced the name of only one economist today who actually agrees with those numbers, and I think every other economist in the world thinks they're absurd.
DOBBS: Who is that one economist?
BARNES: Ah, it was the one you -- I'm sure you expected, Mark Zandi.
DOBBS: [Laughing] The pride of Moody's.
BARNES: [Laughing] Yes. [Fox Business, Lou Dobbs Tonight, 10/21/11]
Bolling Dismisses Zandi's Evaluation Of Obama's Jobs Plan Because Of Zandi's Positive Statements On Stimulus Bill. From Eric Bolling's Fox Business show:
BOLLING: Doc, is it time to just throw in the towel on the Obama economic policies?
CAROLINE HELDMAN (Occidental College professor): Well, I'm sure that's -- I mean, Republicans intended to throw in the towel before it even made it to Congress. The American public should be up in arms about the fact that Republicans are practicing partisan politics over the wealth and the health of the nation. President Obama's plan, according to Moody's, is going to create 1.9 million new jobs and boost the economy by 2 percent.
BOLLING: Time out. Time out. Let's do it --
HELDMAN: I mean, it doesn't make sense that they're not allowing to this go through.
BOLLING: -- let's do it this way. Let's do it this way. Let's stay factual, and when we steer off the factual highway, I'll bring you back on through the on ramp.
HELDMAN: Is Moody's not factual? I'm sorry, you're challenging Moody's?
BOLLING: No. It's not Moody's. It's Mark Zandi who works at Moody's, the same guy who was all for stimulus one. So goodbye on that one. Now the other one, you said, it's partisan politics. Unfortunately --
HELDMAN: Stimulus one worked. It's a myth that stimulus one didn't work. It's a myth. [Fox Business, Follow the Money, 10/21/11]
In Fact, Zandi Is Only One Of Many Economists Who Say Obama's Jobs Plan Will Create Jobs, Boost Economy
Bloomberg: Economists Conclude Jobs Act Would "Help Avoid A Return To Recession." Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News concluded that the jobs plan "would help avoid a return to recession by maintaining growth and pushing down the unemployment rate next year." From Bloomberg:
President Barack Obama's $447 billion jobs plan would help avoid a return to recession by maintaining growth and pushing down the unemployment rate next year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The legislation, submitted to Congress this month, would increase gross domestic product by 0.6 percent next year and add or keep 275,000 workers on payrolls, the median estimates in the survey of 34 economists showed. The program would also lower the jobless rate by 0.2 percentage point in 2012, economists said. [Bloomberg, 9/28/10]
Zandi: American Jobs Act Would Add Nearly 2 Million Jobs. UPI reported:
President Barack Obama's $447 billion job-creation plan would likely add 1.9 million payroll jobs and grow the U.S. economy 2 percent, a leading economist said.
The plan, which Obama outlined before a joint session of Congress Thursday, would likely cut the unemployment rate by a percentage point, Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi said as Obama prepared to tout the plan at Virginia's University of Richmond. [United Press International, 9/9/11]
Macroeconomic Advisers: American Jobs Act Would Be "A Significant Boost To GDP And Employment." From the blog of Macroeconomic Advisers LLC:
We estimate that the American Jobs Act (AJA), if enacted, would give a significant boost to GDP and employment over the near-term.
- The various tax cuts aimed at raising workers' after-tax income and encouraging hiring and investing, combined with the spending increases aimed at maintaining state & local employment and funding infrastructure modernization, would:
- Boost the level of GDP by 1.3% by the end of 2012, and by 0.2% by the end of 2013.
- Raise nonfarm establishment employment by 1.3 million by the end of 2012 and 0.8 million by the end of 2013, relative to the baseline.
- The program works directly to raise employment through tax incentives and support to state & local governments for increasing hiring; it works indirectly through the positive boost to aggregate demand (and hence hiring) stimulated by the direct spending and the increase in household income resulting from lower employee payroll taxes and increased employment. [Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, 9/8/11]
EPI: American Jobs Act Would "Increase Employment By About 4.3 Million Jobs." Economic Policy Institute research and policy director John Irons provided a "preliminary breakdown of the package and a first pass look at the job impact" of Obama's jobs plan:
Overall the package would increase employment by about 4.3 million jobs over the next couple of years. The new initiatives would boost employment by about 2.6 million jobs, while the continuation of the two temporary provisions (EUI and the payroll tax holiday) would prevent a backslide of over 1.6 million jobs.
There's still a big hole left to fill, but every step matters.
Irons included the following graphic in his post:
[Economic Policy Institute, 9/8/11]
IHS Global Insight: American Jobs Act Could Grow GDP By 1.4 Percentage Points, Create 900,000 Jobs. From IHS Global Insight chief U.S. economist Nigel Gault's estimate of the American Jobs Act's impact:
Adding the different elements of the programme would generate a 2012 (calendar-year) impact on GDP growth--compared to our baseline--of about 0.8 percentage point. Passing none of the programme would cut about 0.6 percentage point off our projected growth rate. Thus, the overall swing in growth between not passing any of it and passing the whole thing would be about 1.4 percentage points. The corresponding swing for employment (also calendar-year average) would be around 900,000 (from down 400,000 to up 500,000). We will watch the debate over the proposals carefully, to see what parts of it the Republicans might go along with. Our expectation at this point is that not much beyond the extension of the existing payroll tax cut and the extension of emergency unemployment insurance benefits will be passed. For now, we have no plans to adjust our 2012 forecast based on the president's proposal. [IHS Global Insight, 9/12/11]
Ameriprise Financial Services Senior Economist: Obama Jobs Plan Could Add Up To 1.2 Million Jobs. CNNMoney reported:
Economists gave generally positive reviews to President Obama's jobs plan Friday, with some estimating that at least 1 million jobs could be added in the next year if Congress passes the package.
The payroll tax holiday for workers and small businesses was cited specifically for having a relatively good "bang for the buck." And that part of the plan may have the most bipartisan support.
"This additional spending capacity in the hands of consumers should continue to foster improvements in aggregate domestic demand. And ultimately, it is demand and demand alone that will lead to more business hiring," said Russell Price, senior economist for Ameriprise Financial Services.
Price estimates the increased payroll tax holiday for workers by itself is likely to add between 750,000 to 1 million jobs, and that the new break on payroll taxes for employers could add an additional 100,000 to 200,000 jobs.
He added that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic activity, could get a 1.5 percentage point boost as well. [CNNMoney, 9/9/11]
Nuveen Asset Management Chief Economist: American Jobs Act Could Add A Million Jobs. CNNMoney further reported:
Economists say one big problem with assessing the program is figuring out its chance of passage in the face of Republican criticism.
Keith Hembre, chief economist for Nuveen Asset Management, said he thinks the package could lift GDP by 1.5 percentage points and add 1 million jobs, but doubts Congress will approve Obama's proposal.
"It seems much more like a wish list than anything that is likely become law," he said. [CNNMoney, 9/9/11]