On This Week, George Will falsely asserted that “in the primaries,” McCain “has achieved more independent voters than Obama”
Written by Andrew Walzer
Published
On ABC's This Week, George Will falsely asserted that “in the primaries,” Sen. John McCain “has achieved more independent voters than [Sen. Barack] Obama.” In fact, in calculations based on exit polls, in each of the nine states that have held open or semi-open primaries contested by both Obama and McCain, Obama received more votes from voters who identified themselves as “independent” than McCain.
During a roundtable discussion on the February 17 edition of ABC's This Week with George Stephanopoulos, Washington Post columnist George Will falsely asserted that “in the primaries,” Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain “has achieved more independent voters than [Sen. Barack] Obama.” In fact, exit polling on CNN's website indicates that in all nine states that have held open or semi-open primaries contested by both Obama and McCain, Obama received more votes from voters who identified themselves as “independent” than McCain. Overall, in calculations based on the exit polling from CNN.com, Obama received more than 777,000 votes from independents in the nine states with open and semi-open primaries, compared with approximately 385,000 votes from independents for McCain.
Open primaries are primaries in which all registered voters can vote in either party's primary. Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Missouri, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia have held open Republican and Democratic primaries in which McCain and Obama have competed. Massachusetts held a semi-open Republican and Democratic primary in which party members and independents could vote, but members of another party could not. The exit polling was not conducted in Minnesota, North Dakota, and Washington state, which all held open caucuses.
Democratic primaries | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total number of voters in Dem primary (according to CNN results page) |
% of inds. in Dem primary (according to exit polls) |
Inds. voting in Dem primary (derived from exit polls)* |
% of inds. voting for Obama (according to exit polls) |
Inds. voting for Obama (derived from exit polls)** |
|
AL |
70,167 |
33,680 |
|||
AR |
55,317 |
17,701 |
|||
GA |
198,832 |
125,264 |
|||
MO |
180,500 |
120,935 |
|||
NH |
125,006 |
51,252 |
|||
SC |
121,974 |
51,229 |
|||
TN |
122,819 |
57,725 |
|||
VA |
213,486 |
147,305 |
|||
MA |
410,564 |
172,437 |
|||
Total*** |
777,528 |
Republican primaries | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total number of voters in GOP primary (according to CNN results page) |
% of inds. in GOP primary (according to exit polls) |
Inds. voting in GOP primary (derived from exit polls)* |
% of inds. voting for McCain (according to exit polls) |
Inds. voting for McCain (derived from exit polls)** |
|
AL |
101,488 |
32,476 |
|||
AR |
49,408 |
10,870 |
|||
GA |
171,803 |
48,105 |
|||
MO |
134,462 |
47,062 |
|||
NH |
86,351 |
34,540 |
|||
SC |
79,725 |
33,485 |
|||
TN |
120,475 |
37,347 |
|||
VA |
101,216 |
38,462 |
|||
MA |
218,315 |
102,608 |
|||
Total*** |
384,955 |
*For both Democratic and Republican primaries, the total number of independents voting in each state's primary is an approximation derived from multiplying the total number of votes in the party's primary and the percentage of voters in the primary who were independents, according to the exit polling on CNN.com.
** The total number of independents voting for Obama and McCain in each state is an approximation derived from multiplying the approximate number of independents voting in the Democratic and Republican primary (respectively) and the percentage of those independents who voted for the respective candidate, according to CNN.com's exit polls.
*** The total number of independents voting for Obama and McCain in the nine states combined is derived by adding the approximate total of independents voting for the two candidates in each state.
In addition, during the discussion of who can win independent voters, host George Stephanopoulos referred to McCain's “line” that Obama is the “most liberal senator, according to National Journal” without expressing the skepticism for that assertion that he had previously shown. On the February 3 edition of This Week, Stephanopoulos stated: "[Y]ou saw the National Journal this week, he was the most liberal senator. Now, I don't put any credence in the way they get to that, but it's still a line Republicans are going to use." As Media Matters for America pointed out, among the “liberal” votes that purportedly earned Obama the label “most liberal senator” were votes to implement the bipartisan 9-11 Commission's homeland security recommendations, provide more children with health insurance, permit federal funding for embryonic stem-cell research, and maintain a federal minimum wage.
From the February 17 broadcast of ABC's This Week:
STEPHANOPOULOS: He seems to have decided, George, that Hillary Clinton is likely a better opponent for him than Barack Obama. But you heard that line that he said about Obama -- “most liberal senator, according to National Journal.” How effective can that be? And it's going to go right to the heart of who can win these independents between Obama and McCain if Obama gets the nomination.
WILL: So far, in the primaries, he -- McCain -- has achieved more independent voters than Obama has, so that's where it will be settled. And in this sense, we're past the [former White House senior adviser Karl] Rove era. Rove, going in to 2004, said there were 7 percent independents. They don't matter; what you do is rally your base. We're back to a more normal election in which there is a middle of maybe 20 percent that's in play. And in that sense, whether or not he can convince the country that beneath the soaring rhetoric there are details, and they won't like the details, that's his job.