In an April 17 article, the Associated Press compared a generic AP/Yahoo presidential poll from November 2007, showing an unnamed Democrat holding a sizable lead over an unnamed Republican, to a new AP/Yahoo survey showing that Sen. John McCain “has pulled even with the two Democrats still brawling for their party's nomination.” In doing so, the AP baselessly suggested that the new poll indicates momentum for McCain. In fact, while AP/Yahoo did not poll head-to-head matchups in November, two other November surveys that polled both head-to-head and generic matchups found that an unnamed Democrat's lead in the generic ballot was significantly larger than the lead either Sen. Barack Obama or Sen. Hillary Clinton held over McCain in a head-to-head match-up at that time. Indeed, as with AP/Yahoo's April poll, numerous head-to-head polls conducted in November showed McCain “even” or close to “even” with Obama and Clinton.

From the April 17 AP article:

Republicans are no longer underdogs in the race for the White House. To pull that off, John McCain has attracted disgruntled GOP voters, independents and even some moderate Democrats who shunned his party last fall.

Partly thanks to an increasingly likable image, the Republican presidential candidate has pulled even with the two Democrats still brawling for their party's nomination, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo! news poll released Thursday. Just five months ago -- before either party had winnowed its field -- the survey showed people preferred sending an unnamed Democrat over a Republican to the White House by 13 percentage points.

According to an AP/Yahoo poll conducted November 2-12, 2007, and a corresponding November 20, 2007, AP article, 42 percent of respondents said that "[i]f the 2008 general election for President were being held today," they would vote for “the Democratic candidate,” compared with 27 percent who would support “the Republican candidate” -- a difference of 15 percentage points. Beginning with the published results of a poll conducted December 14-20, 2007, AP/Yahoo reported the results of its November survey as 40 percent to 27 percent in favor of the Democratic candidate, the 13-point difference the April 17 AP article referenced. In AP/Yahoo's head-to-head survey conducted April 2-14, when choosing between McCain and Clinton, 37 percent of respondents supported McCain, while 36 percent backed Clinton. In the Obama-McCain matchup, 36 percent of respondents supported McCain, compared with 34 percent who backed Obama. According to the listed polls on Yahoo.com, AP/Yahoo did not poll head-to-head matchups from November through March, and in its full results for the April survey, AP/Yahoo did not include polling on a generic matchup.

By contrast, in two polls that did test both head-to-head and generic matchups in November, the Democrat's lead in the generic ballot was significantly larger than in the head-to-head matchup:

• In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted November 1-5, 2007, Clinton led McCain 47 percent to 43 percent, a difference of 4 percentage points. The poll did not include data on an Obama-McCain matchup. In a generic matchup, 50 percent of respondents chose an unnamed Democrat, while 35 percent chose an unnamed Republican -- a difference of 15 percentage points.
• In a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll conducted November 13-14, 2007, Clinton led McCain 46 percent to 45 percent. The poll did not include data on an Obama-McCain matchup. In a generic matchup, 43 percent of respondents chose an unnamed Democrat, while 34 percent chose an unnamed Republican -- a difference of 9 percentage points.

The most recent Fox News/Opinion Dynamics and NBC/Journal polls do not include generic matchup polling.

Several other head-to-head polls from November also showed McCain running much closer to Clinton and Obama than the lead an unnamed Democrat held over an unnamed Republican in the generic poll that the AP article cited. For example, a Gallup poll conducted November 11-14, 2007, found Clinton leading McCain 50 percent to 44 percent, while a Rasmussen poll conducted November 7-8, 2007, found McCain leading Clinton 47 percent to 45 percent. According to Real Clear Politics, three November polls surveyed an Obama-McCain matchup. A Rasmussen poll conducted November 28-29 found Obama and McCain tied at 44 percent. A Rasmussen poll conducted earlier in November found Obama leading McCain 46 percent to 43 percent. And a Gallup poll conducted November 11-14 found Obama leading McCain 47 percent to 44 percent. Neither Gallup nor Rasmussen included generic matchup polling.

Additionally, a poll conducted March 25-27 by Democracy Corps/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research found that “Democrats widened their lead in a generic presidential ballot to 12 points (53 to 41 percent),” but “both of the Democratic candidates for president, Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, trail[ed] behind McCain.”

From the April 17 Associated Press article, by reporters Alan Fram and Trevor Tompson:

Republicans are no longer underdogs in the race for the White House. To pull that off, John McCain has attracted disgruntled GOP voters, independents and even some moderate Democrats who shunned his party last fall.

Partly thanks to an increasingly likable image, the Republican presidential candidate has pulled even with the two Democrats still brawling for their party's nomination, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo news poll released Thursday. Just five months ago -- before either party had winnowed its field -- the survey showed people preferred sending an unnamed Democrat over a Republican to the White House by 13 percentage points [sic].

Also helping the Arizona senator close the gap: Peoples' opinions of Hillary Rodham Clinton have soured slightly, while their views of Barack Obama have improved though less impressively than McCain's.

The survey suggests that those switching to McCain are largely attuned to his personal qualities and McCain may be benefiting as the two Democrats snipe at each other during their prolonged nomination fight.

[...]

The findings of the survey, conducted by Knowledge Networks, provide a preview of one of this fall's battlegrounds. Though some unhappy Republicans will doubtless stay with McCain, both groups are teeming with centrist swing voters who will be targeted by both parties.

The poll shows that McCain's appeal has grown since November by more than the Democrats' has dwindled. McCain gets about 10 percentage points more now than a generic Republican candidate got last fall; Obama and Clinton get about 5 points less than a nameless Democrat got then.

[...]

For now, more than one in 10 who weren't backing the unnamed Republican candidate in last November's survey are supporting McCain, a shift partly offset by a smaller number of former undecideds now embracing Obama or Clinton. Of those now backing McCain, about one-third did not support the generic GOP candidate last November.