Trump threatened Canada, Colombia, and Mexico with punitive tariffs before backing down
The day Trump took office, he promised to impose 25% tariffs across-the-board on Canadian and Mexican imports, to begin on February 1. Trump’s executive order delayed implementing the new import tax scheme until February 4, resulting in panic among economic policy experts and financial analysts in the lead up to the deadline. But the day before the tariffs were set to begin, Trump announced he had reached deals with both countries and implementation would be put on a 30-day pause.
Regardless of when the tariffs are imposed, economists predict that they would cost hundreds of thousands of lost American jobs, reaccelerate inflation, and limit U.S. economic growth. A new analysis of the tariff scheme from the Brookings Institution demonstrated that Trump's plan would “reduce U.S. economic growth, reduce jobs, cause wages to fall, and prices to rise, and retaliation by Canada and Mexico will multiply the economic harms across the three countries.”
Trump also threatened Colombia with similar tariffs on January 26 after it temporarily denied entry to U.S. military aircraft carrying deportees. Trump backed off his threat to impose a 25% import tax on Colombian goods later the same day after negotiations resulted in the resumption of already-routine deportation flights from the U.S. to Colombia.
The Wall Street Journal and others explained that Trump blinked, arguing that the concessions he received were minimal
On February 3, The Wall Street Journal published an editorial titled “Trump Blinks on North American Tariffs: The President pauses after minor concessions from Canada and Mexico.” The paper’s conservative editorial board explained that Trump had accomplished very little in exchange for backing off from his tariff threats:
But there’s much less to this tariff truce than meets the eye. Mr. Trump won an announcement of help at the border, though what the Mexican troops will actually do to fight the cartels trafficking drugs isn’t clear. Drug enforcement is a hardy perennial in U.S.-Mexican relations, and Mexico has promised help before, notably during the presidencies of Felipe Calderón and Enrique Peña Nieto.
As for immigration, Ms. Sheinbaum has already essentially agreed to cooperate on restoring the Remain in Mexico policy for migrants who reach the Mexico-U.S. border. Illegal border crossings have also been falling fast as Mr. Trump has sent a signal that illegal migrants won’t be allowed to stay in the U.S.
Later Monday, Mr. Trump paused his tariffs against Canada as well after a phone call with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Canada is also deploying more law enforcement to the U.S. border and will appoint a “Fentanyl Czar,” among other enforcement promises.
If the North American leaders need to cheer about a minor deal so they all claim victory, that’s better for everyone. The need is especially important for Mr. Trump given how much he has boasted that his tariffs are a fool-proof diplomatic weapon against friend or foe. Mr. Trump can’t afford to look like the guy who lost. Ms. Sheinbaum in particular seems to recognize this, and so far she’s playing her Trump cards with skill.
National Review also noted that many of the concessions Trump supposedly won were already in place or had been agreed to in previous administrations. Senior political correspondent Jim Geraghty pointed out that “Canada’s $1.3 billion border plan was announced December 17,” during the Biden administration. Geraghty added that “in 2019, Mexico deployed collectively nearly 20,000 troops to its northern and southern borders,” and again in “April 2021, in an agreement with the Biden administration, the Mexican government agreed to station 10,000 troops at its southern border with Guatemala to stop caravans of migrants who intended to come to the U.S.”
CNN senior political reporter Stephen Collinson arrived at the same conclusion, writing that “despite a White House victory lap, there’s a more convincing case that it was really Trump who backed away from a fight that could have caused severe economic pain.” Collinson continued, “A more objective view of the bizarre showdown with America’s neighbors suggests a blunter truth: Trump blinked.” CNN anchor Kaitlan Collins, reporting from the White House, also noted that a key component of Canada's supposed concession was actually “announced back in December.”
Bloomberg’s reporting on the tariff spat also argued the concession Trump earned from Mexico, in particular, was “by all accounts a minuscule price to pay,” and quoted University of Southern California international relations professor Pamela Starr that Mexico’s president had “deftly managed President Trump.”
As with the Canada and Mexico tariff standoffs, the Journal reported that Trump “backed off” his tariff threats against Colombia in exchange for seemingly minimal concessions, noting that the country was already accepting hundreds of routine deportation flights during the Biden administration, “usually using commercial flights.” (According to The Associated Press, Colombia has accepted well over 400 deportation flights from the U.S. since 2020, including 124 in 2024 alone.) As Bloomberg reported, Colombia had objected to the use of the American military to transport Colombian citizens and to “the use of shackles and handcuffs on detainees.” After negotiations, Colombia accepted the military transports while the U.S. agreed “no military personnel would be on the deportation flight,” which would use military aircraft only “as a last resort.”
MAGA media portrayed Trump’s repeated backing down for minor concessions as a “win” and “victory”
- New York Post editorial board: “Trump win in Colombia deportation tariff fight proves we CAN stop illegal immigration.” [New York Post, 1/27/25]
- Fox News reporter Morgan Phillips: “A victory for Trump's 'FAFO': How the White House strong-armed one-time close ally Colombia over immigration.” [FoxNews.com, 1/27/25]
- Just the News’ John Solomon: “Trump scores win as Colombia agrees to accept migrant flights in face of tariff threats.” [Just the News, 1/26/25]
- Conservative radio host Erick Erickson: “Today, Donald Trump got Canada and Mexico to give him a huge PR win.” [Twitter/X, 2/3/25]
- Gateway Pundit: “ANOTHER Trump Win: Trudeau FOLDS In Trade War CONFLICT.” [The Gateway Pundit, 2/3/25]
- Fox News: “TRADE WAR WIN: Canada blinks, President Trump delays tariffs on northern neighbor for at least 30 days.” [Twitter/X, 2/3/25]
- Steve Bannon’s War Room co-host Natalie Winters: “Using economic warfare for the American people and not globalist elites. A historic day of tariffs and victory for President Trump!” [Twitter/X, 2/3/25]
- Fox host Kayleigh McEnany: “It's amazing eight years down the road, people haven't learned: Maybe you don't want to bet against the guy known for 'The Art of the Deal' because we're watching it come together now.” [Twitter/X, 2/3/25]
- RedState: “Canada Caves in Another Victory for Trump on Tariffs/Border.” [RedState, 2/3/25]
- The Daily Wire’s Ben Shapiro: “President Trump just used tariffs as leverage AGAIN – and AGAIN got a win. Nobody uses leverage like this president. Nobody.” [Twitter/X, 2/3/25]
