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Polling around mass deportation is far more complicated than right-wing media let on

When people are presented with alternatives to mass deportation, they are likely to support options like pathways to citizenship

Written by Chloe Simon

Published

During the 2024 election cycle, polls like those from Axios and Scripps News/Ipsos have contained questions that appear to show popular support for the mass deportation of immigrants, a policy which has been heavily promoted by Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. 

Polling around mass deportation is complicated and requires context as other polls have found that respondents, when presented with alternatives to mass deportation, are likely to choose options such as legal pathways to citizenship. Right-wing media have ignored this facet of the polling and chosen to cherry-pick the polling questions to declare a majority of Americans support mass deportations.  

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  • Multiple polls this year indicated contradictory support for mass deportation, a policy Trump has pledged to enact if reelected

    • An Axios piece from April titled “Exclusive poll: America warms to mass deportations” claimed that 51% of respondents said they support mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. But the poll also found that “58% said they support expanding legal pathways for orderly immigration” and “65% of Americans think the U.S. should make it easier for anyone seeking a better life to enter legally so they don't need to enter illegally.” [Axios, 4/25/24] 
    • Later in September, a Scripps News/Ipsos survey asserted that “54% of voters support the policy proposal” of mass deportations. The poll’s question was simply framed around asking respondents if they “support or oppose” the “mass deportation of undocumented immigrants.” The survey also found that 68% of respondents support “giving a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who arrived in the U.S. as children.” [Ipsos, accessed 10/11/24; Scripps News, 9/18/24]
    • During both his presidential campaigns, Trump has called for mass deportation of migrants. Trump has promised to conduct “the largest domestic deportation operation in American history,” by what Mother Jones described as “knocking on doors, searching workplaces and homes, and arbitrarily interrogating and arresting suspected undocumented immigrants. The dragnet would almost certainly ensnare US citizens, too.” Mass deportations could result in devastating consequences for labor, food production, infrastructure construction, and health care services. [Mother Jones, August 2024]

  • Polling on mass deportation is complicated and relies heavily on what questions are asked and how they’re framed

    • The Immigration Hub argued that “when provided a choice, voters overwhelmingly reject (only 39% in favor) the trademark Trump mass deportation policy that would result in American families across the nation torn apart." The article claimed, “When framed as a choice, voters prefer a pathway to citizenship over mass deportation by a large margin. Providing a pathway to citizenship remains the far more popular approach to handling undocumented immigrants.” The piece also cited data from Pew Research showing “that 59% of voters believe that undocumented immigrants ‘should be allowed to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met’ vs. 41% who say ‘they should not be able to stay in the country legally.’” The Hub also claimed that their “internal polling shows that when voters are given specifics about who would be deported, they prefer allowing people to stay over being deported by overwhelming numbers.” [The Immigration Hub, accessed 10/11/24]
    • American Immigration Council’s Aaron Reichlin-Melnick specifically responded to the Axios polling, saying “the enforcement finding is directly contradicted by other questions in the poll.” Axios wrote that the “survey still found Americans strongly support immigration as long as it is lawful” with 58% of respondents saying “they support expanding legal pathways for orderly immigration.” Reichlin-Melnick also noted “decades of polling on this in general” show that “people want a balanced path to legal status plus more enforcement, not mass deportations.” [Twitter/X, 4/25/24; Axios, 4/25/24]
    • In another post, Reichlin-Melnick noted that “when you explain to people what mass deportation is, and propose a path to legal status as an alternative, mass deportation is extremely unpopular.” Reichlin-Melnick was referring to a University of Maryland survey which showed that after offering respondents two different proposed policies  – mass deportation or pathway to citizenship – for “11 million people who have been living in the US without legal status, most for over a decade,” 58% chose the pathway to citizenship option. [Twitter/X, 10/10/24; University of Maryland, accessed 10/17/24]

  • Right-wing media have used the poll questions about mass deportation to claim the majority support Trump's proposed policy

    • Fox News co-host Lawrence Jones said, “When you look at the polling data right now, … the amount of Americans that support mass deportation is overwhelming.” Jones claimed this is due to people seeing “the issue, they see the gangs in their neighborhood.” [Fox News, Fox & Friends, 9/27/24]
    • Fox News host and former Trump White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany claimed the “majority of Americans are now for” mass deportations” and co-host Harris Faulkner cited the Scripps News/Ipsos survey of 54% approval rating for mass deportations. [Fox News, Outnumbered, 9/19/24] 
    • The Daily Caller published an article titled “Majority Of Voters Support Mass Deportations, New Poll Reveals,” discussing the Scripps News/Ipsos polling. The piece buried in a later paragraph that “the vast majority of Democrats and roughly half of Republicans support a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants who have been in the U.S. since they were children.” [The Daily Caller, 9/18/24]
    • Fox News anchor Martha MacCallum said, “Vice President Harris using former President Trump’s vow of mass deportations to warn Hispanic voters against his immigration plan, even as a new poll shows that most Americans support deporting immigrants who came here illegally,” citing the Scripps News/Ipsos poll. Her guest, Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), called it a “pretty common belief in American society” that “illegal immigrants should be deported.” [Fox News, The Story, 9/19/24]
    • Fox Business host Larry Kudlow said he’s seen “some polls that show with great clarity that a majority of Americans, well over 50%, favor deportation.” He continued, “You're in here illegally, you committed a crime here, maybe we should start with the criminals to go back to what the Eisenhower deportations were many, many, many years ago. But nonetheless, polls show people want deportations.” [Fox Business, Kudlow, 9/27/24]
    • Fox News published a piece titled “Americans favor Trump on immigration, support mass deportation of illegal immigrants, poll finds.” Citing the Scripps News/Ipsos survey, the article claimed: “A new poll shows a majority of Americans support the mass deportation of migrants living illegally in the United States.” [Fox News, 9/18/24]
    • In a segment fearmongering about “terror watch list suspects” crossing the border, Fox News correspondent Griff Jenkins claimed “recent polling shows a majority of Americans do support Trump's deportation plan.” [Fox News, America’s Newsroom, 9/19/24]
    • Far-right commentator Jack Posobiec claimed that the “Ipsos poll shows massive national support for mass deportations.” Posobiec continued, “This is why they’re attacking JD Vance over the Haitian crisis” because it’s “destroying Kamala’s campaign.” [Twitter/X, 9/18/24]
    • The Post Millennial released an article with the headline “54% of Americans support mass deportations of illegal immigrants: Scripps News/Ipsos poll.” The piece claimed “A new Scripps News/Ipsos poll shows that the majority of Americans favor the mass deportation of illegal immigrants, a policy that has been proposed by 2024 GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump.” [ The Post Millennial, 9/18/24]
    • The Washington Examiner put out an article titled “Trump sees support for immigration and deportation policies rise: Poll.” The piece claimed, “According to a new Scripps News/Ipsos survey, 54% of respondents said they ‘strongly’ or ‘somewhat’ support the policy former President Donald Trump has made central in his reelection effort.” [Washington Examiner, 9/18/24]
    • Right-wing outlet The Post Millennial published a piece titled “Majority of Americans—42% of Democrats—want mass deportations as Trump has promised: Axios/Harris Poll.” The article claimed, “According to a new Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll, Americans have warmed to the idea of mass deportations and more secure border policies, like those that were in place during the Trump administration, now that the influx of illegal immigration has reached crisis levels under President Joe Biden.” [The Post Millennial, 4/25/24]
    • Sean Hannity’s website released a piece titled “AXIOS POLL: Americans Warming to Trump's Mass Deportation Plan for Illegal Migrants.” The piece says “according to a new Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll, more Americans are coming around to Donald Trump’s plan to enforce the largest mass deportation of illegal immigrants in U.S. history.” [Hannity.com. 4/25/24]
    • Conservative outlet Just the News ran the headline “More than half of adult Americans believe the United States should deport illegal immigrants, including nearly half of Democratic respondents, according to a poll released on Thursday.” [Just the News, 4/25/24]
    • National Review published a piece titled “A Majority Are for Mass Deportations,” citing the Axios poll’s “eye-popping results” which “show the overall popularity of the hard-line immigration proposals Donald Trump has floated in his campaign, including mass deportations of illegal aliens.” [National Review, 4/25/24]