The National Rifle Association’s favorite researcher, John Lott, published a Wall Street Journal opinion piece making the ridiculous claim that soaring gun homicide rates in Mexico in recent years are the result of the country strengthening its gun laws in 1971. Lott’s analysis fails to establish any causation between the law change nearly 50 years ago and current levels of violence, and he ignores or downplays intervening factors that better explain Mexico’s gun homicide rate -- including the rise of the drug cartels in the 1980s, the Mexican Drug War, the related breakdown of law enforcement in Mexico, and the flood of firearms being illegally smuggled from the U.S. into Mexico.
Although Lott’s primary pro-gun research theory -- that “more guns” equal “less crime” -- has been repeatedly debunked over the years by academic researchers, the Journal is the latest major outlet to give him a platform to spread pro-gun nonsense. Lott’s opinion piece also follows a recent embarrassing episode in which he was called out by a U.S. senator while testifying about his past use of a fictitious sock puppet account to defend his research online.
In his October 21 piece, headlined “Mexico’s Soaring Murder Rate Proves Gun Control Is Deadly,” Lott claims that the current astronomical gun homicide rate in Mexico is a result of a change in the country’s gun regulations. According to Lott, “Mexicans had a right to own guns until 1971, when the constitution was amended to give the federal government total control over firearm access,” but today, “Mexico’s murder rate is about twice what it was in 1972.” Citing a favorite NRA catch phrase, Lott concludes: “It’s pretty simple—the only way to stop a bad guy with a gun, is a good guy with a gun. Disarming the latter emboldens the former.”
The supporting evidence Lott offers for his claim is wrong. He writes, “If you look across all countries or all developed countries, the ones with the highest gun-ownership rates tend to have the lowest homicide rates and the lowest murder rates from mass shootings.” But according to the Harvard Injury Control Research Center, “across developed countries, where guns are more available, there are more homicides. These results often hold even when the United States is excluded.” Research has also shown that high-income nations typically experience low rates of gun violence -- with the exception of the U.S., which has both remarkably high gun availability and a high gun homicide rate for a high-income nation. (Lott’s claim about mass shootings is an aside to his main point, but his research on that topic has also been thoroughly debunked, as Lott obviously distorted his data set.)
What makes Lott’s argument about Mexico ridiculous on its face, however, is his failure to account for intervening events between 1971 and present. Perhaps the most obvious example is that the modern drug cartels, which are fueling violence in Mexico, didn’t exist in 1971, and instead have their genesis in the 1980s. Cartel activities led to the start of what is known as the Mexican Drug War, which began in 2006 and continues to this day.