Reporting on an appearance made by President George W. Bush before an “effervescent crowd” at the annual convention of the Knights of Columbus (a “lay Catholic men's society”), an August 3 Washington Post article stated: “Bush appears to be making inroads” among Catholics. The article also reported that in 2000, Catholics favored former Vice President Al Gore over Bush by 49 percent to 47 percent, and that this year “polls indicate that Catholics, overall, are again leaning Democratic.”

So here's the puzzle: Given that (1) Bush was only two points behind his Democratic opponent among Catholics in 2000 and (2) according to the Post, he's still behind (as “Catholics, overall, are again leaning Democratic”), how much ground could he possibly be gaining? And given the margin of error in polling, how would the Post know?