North Carolina Paper Dropped Research 2000 After 2006 Dispute

Research 2000, the polling outfit that has come under scrutiny this week after Daily Kos accused it of fraud, had a previous dispute in 2006 with North Carolina's largest newspaper.

The News & Observer in Raleigh had contracted with the company to conduct polling for a school bond referendum that year.

The paper reported that Research 2000's findings showed the measure was losing, 54% to 35%, in a major pre-election story Oct. 25, 2006. The poll was done three weeks before the election.

When it passed, 53% to 47%, the newspaper editor admits the paper had egg on its face. It dropped the polling firm right away.

“In my view, they missed it. They got it wrong,” said Executive Editor John Drescher, who spoke to Media Matters in reaction to the Daily Kos situation. “They missed it by a lot.”

Drescher said, “We put a story on the front page that had it defeated rather soundly and it ended up passing a short time later.”

The incident even prompted N&O Public Editor Ted Vaden to weigh in on the issue with a column on Nov. 12, 2006

In it he stated: " ... there was some Wednesday-morning quarterbacking at the paper about other factors [with the poll], specifically about how the likely voters were selected for the sample and about the wording of the bond question (it didn't tell respondents much about the pros and cons).

“All that will be fodder for discussion for future poll stories, but it illustrates that there is plenty of opportunity to get polls wrong. Given that polls likely can influence outcomes, the question is whether newspapers should even be involved in such an unscientific science. It does put our reputation at stake.”

At the time, Vaden wrote that Research 2000 President Del Ali, “blamed the bad numbers on the timing of the survey. The poll was conducted Oct. 19 and 20, nearly three weeks before the election. In politics, he said, 'that's an eternity; it really is.' He said he's confident that the numbers were right in that third week of October, that the bonds would have lost if the election were held then and that voter sentiment moved that much before the election.”

Ali declined comment to Media Matters Wednesday.

Vaden also wrote that the paper had problems with a previous Research 2000 poll: “Research 2000 and The N&O also whiffed on an Orange County referendum over whether to add two members to the Board of Commissioners. The poll showed the initiative losing, 37 percent yes to 56 percent no, with 7 percent undecided. But the referendum passed overwhelmingly, 69 percent to 31 percent.”

Research 2000 (whose findings have also been cited by Media Matters for America) has come under scrutiny this week after Daily Kos said statisticians had found statistical problems with their polls.

“We contracted with Research 2000 to conduct polling and to provide us with the results of their surveys. Based on the report of the statisticians, it's clear that we did not get what we paid for,” Daily Kos Founder Markos Moulitsas wrote. “We were defrauded by Research 2000, and while we don't know if some or all of the data was fabricated or manipulated beyond recognition, we know we can't trust it.”

Three other newspapers contacted by Media Matters who had used Research 2000, some as recently as 2008, said they had no problems with the methodologies and likely would not seek to review their polls. But each had decided to drop the polling firm for reasons unrelated to the Daily Kos incident.

“In the few election cycles where we used them we had no problems,” said Christopher Ave, political editor at the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “We have had no indication there was any problem.”

Ave said his paper has chosen instead to go with Mason-Dixon polling, which he said offered a better financial deal.

Chris Powell, managing editor at the Journal Enquirer in Manchester, Ct., said his paper used Research 2000 numerous times dating back 10 years for gubernatorial and congressional races.

“I was always pleased with their work,” he said, adding no review is planned. “If we had the money, I would favor using them again.”

But, he added, if the Daily Kos findings indicate there might have been a problem with his paper's polls, he would seek a review. “If a big scandal explodes, it might cause us to reconsider.”

Gary Graham, editor of The Spokesman-Review in Spokane, Washington, had a similar view. He said his paper stopped using Research 2000 years ago due to economic cutbacks, but would likely not use them again after the latest problems.

“If I did have the money for polling, I would think twice about using them again because credibility is everything,” he said.