Daily Wire host: “There is a pretty decent chance of a trade war and a pretty decent chance of a recession”
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From the April 2, 2025, edition of The Daily Wire's The Michael Knowles Show
MICHAEL KNOWLES (HOST): The libs won a crucial Wisconsin Supreme Court seat.
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The reason it matters is because now the Democrats are gonna keep their majority in the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which means that Democrats can challenge the current congressional election map, which means that the libs can rejigger the map so that they can get more seats in the House. They can flip some seats, which means that our extremely slim Republican majority in the House is imperiled by a random night win of a Supreme Court justice in the state of Wisconsin. This might be a bad sign for the midterm elections. Wisconsin, obviously, an important swing state. You know, you don't wanna read too much into it. It's an off year election.
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This could be a bad sign because just is always the case, virtually always the case, that the party that wins the White House loses the first midterm election. That is a big risk in particular when you're in a political sea change. This is not just going from Reagan to Bush to Clinton to Bush to Obama. This is a more fundamental change in our political order, so things get a little squirrelier and more difficult to predict.
Also, there is a pretty decent chance of a trade war and a pretty decent chance of a recession. And I'm not saying that I don't think Trump should implement tariffs. I am pro-tariff in principle. I am not saying that Trump is gonna get all the blame if the economy goes into recession. The economy was teetering under Joe Biden. The economy seemed to be artificially buoyed under Joe Biden. Any president coming in would have had a very decent chance of recession. That's even without the talk of the trade wars. And today is the day that we're gonna find out about the tariffs and the potential for a trade war because it's liberation day.
President Trump has announced on liberation day, he's gonna unveil a slew of tariffs, reciprocal tariffs in particular, to punish countries who try to cheat us on trade, and this could either benefit the American economy because the foreign countries lower their barriers to trade, and we get more US market — more US goods in there into all these markets around the world, and it's really great for the American producer, or the countries could say, no way, we're not going to do it. We're not going to play ball, and then we're going to reshore American manufacturing. You've already seen a little bit of that happening in the first two months of the Trump admin. Or you get all these reciprocal tariffs and the countries just have to pay more to have access to the US market and we get a ton of money from it. Those are three things that could happen.