During a discussion with Congressional Quarterly columnist and MSNBC political analyst Craig Crawford on the March 27 edition of MSNBC's Hardball, host Chris Matthews claimed that he doesn't “really trust” a recent poll showing that Americans would prefer that Democrats control the next Congress. He suggested that the poll's findings would hold true if those who oppose the Iraq war “vote Democrat like a monkey, to prove that [they're] against the war.” Further dismissing the poll's significance, Matthews asked whether Americans could “automatically” vote for the Democrats merely because “there's candy in that bowl that's against the war.”

Matthews did not identify which poll he was referring to but noted that it showed that when respondents were asked whether they would “rather see the Republicans or the Democrats” control Congress, "[a]bout 11 points more people say Democrats." Matthews may have been referring to a March 16-17 Newsweek poll that found that 39 percent of respondents would “vote for the Republican Party's candidate” in their district if “the elections for U.S. Congress were being held today,” while 50 percent would support “the Democratic Party's candidate.” He may also have been describing a March 6-8 Associated Press/Ipsos poll that asked, "[I]f the election for Congress were held today, would you want to see the Republicans or Democrats win control of Congress?" That poll found that 36 percent of respondents would choose Republicans, compared with 47 percent who would choose Democrats.

From the March 27 edition of MSNBC's Hardball with Chris Matthews:

MATTHEWS: Let me ask you about this new poll. You follow these things. A new poll said, “Would you rather see the Republicans or the Democrats control Congress?” And it is a basely partisan thing to connect that to war and peace, but I am going to do it. About 11 points more people say Democrats. I don't really trust that number exactly.

If you are against the war and you're really thinking -- you could be as conservative as Pat Buchanan or as liberal as [Sen.] Russ Feingold [D-WI], and you can be against this war. It really doesn't tell you what your politics are, it tells you you just think it wasn't in our national interest.

Now, how does an issue which seems to have us all over the place, you know, I sympathize with Pat's views about America and American interests a lot. I sympathize to some extent with Feingold, but I really think it's not an ideological thing. It's about what do you think is in America's interests.

How do people who have all kinds positions on health care and things like that, how do they come down on an issue of the war, how do they vote? Do you vote Democrat like a monkey, to prove that you're against the war, like OK, there's candy in that bowl, that's against the war. Do people vote that automatically?

CRAWFORD: I'm convinced what's happening in these polls --

MATTHEWS: I mean, seriously. I need to know this. Do you vote Democrat if you're against the war? Is that the way you register your opinion?

CRAWFORD: The way I put it is I think people don't like how it's being managed. They weren't necessarily against the war.