On the September 14 edition of MSNBC's Hardball, host Chris Matthews misrepresented, and chief Washington correspondent Norah O'Donnell cherry-picked, a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll to portray it as favorable to President Bush and Republicans. Specifically, Matthews touted the fact that Bush's approval rating had climbed two percentage points -- to 42 percent -- over the course of two weeks, leading him to assert, “If they keep doing that, they're up to 50 percent by Election Day.” In fact, the two-point increase documented by the NBC poll occurred over seven weeks. Meanwhile, O'Donnell cited the poll's finding that more Americans would vote for a candidate who supports maintaining current troop levels in Iraq over one who supports immediate withdrawal, but ignored another poll finding showing majority support for a candidate advocating gradual redeployment -- the plan most Democrats support.

During the show, Matthews repeatedly cited the uptick in Bush's approval rating found in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted September 8-11. “The president is picking up in the polls -- picked up a couple of points,” Matthews said, adding, “If he keeps doing this, what he has been doing the last two weeks for the next eight weeks, he is going to be back to 50 percent.” Later in the show, Matthews again noted that the White House “picked up two points in two weeks. If they keep doing that, they're up to 50 percent by Election Day.” Indeed, the poll found that Bush's approval rating had increased to 42 percent from the 40 percent found in the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. But contrary to Matthews's claim that this two percent increase occurred over a two-week period, the last poll was conducted July 21-24 -- seven weeks ago. Further, even if Matthews's premise is accurate, his extrapolation is dubious. By his logic, Bush's approval rating could improve to 90 percent by September 2007 and to 120 percent six months thereafter.

While Matthews misrepresented NBC News' polling to claim a recent upward trend in Bush's approval rating, O'Donnell cherry-picked the most recent survey to cast the Democrats' strategy on Iraq as “dangerous.” She noted the poll's finding that respondents favored a Republican candidate who “says the United States should maintain its current troop level in Iraq” over a Democratic candidate who supports “an immediate and orderly withdrawal of troops from Iraq.” O'Donnell then conceded that most Democrats do not, in fact, support “immediate” withdrawal from Iraq, but nonetheless said: "[T]hat's a sign to Democrats that the cut-and-run message, immediate withdrawal, even though that's not what they -- a lot -- many of them are proposing, is a dangerous one for them."

But rather than cite the finding that compares the Republican position on Iraq to a policy that -- as O'Donnell conceded -- most Democrats do not advocate, she could have cited a more relevant question from the poll. The survey also juxtaposed a hypothetical Republican candidate who supports maintaining current troop levels with a hypothetical Democratic candidate who “says the United States should reduce the current troop level” -- the policy advocated by most Democrats. When faced with this choice, respondents favored the Democratic candidate by a 53-40 percent margin.

From the September 14 edition of MSNBC's Hardball with Chris Matthews, which also featured author and former Clinton adviser Douglas B. Sosnik:

MATTHEWS: Let me talk politics for a second. The president's picking up in the polls -- picked up a couple of points -- but the real change in direction in the polling. Wrong direction, right direction? People are a little more happy with the way things are going right now. If he keeps doing this, what he's been doing the last two weeks for the next eight weeks, he's gonna be back to 50 percent. Do you know that? Fifty percent in the polls, which means -- which means he doesn't have to worry about losing the House anymore.

SOSNIK: What The Wall Street Journal said was “slight bounce.” And if you look at the polling for the last year and throw out a few upticks and a few downticks, his polling's basically been steady. The American public has tuned him out, and I don't think you are going to see much change.

MATTHEWS: I wonder if they've tuned him out.

[...]

O'DONNELL: But again, here is the major issue that's going on. Democrats want the political debate to be focused on Iraq.

MATTHEWS: Good.

O'DONNELL: Bush wants it to be focused on terror.

MATTHEWS: And Rummy's the root to Iraq.

O'DONNELL: And that's -- [Defense Secretary Donald H.] Rumsfeld is the proxy to sort of do that. What's really interesting in our NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, one of the questions that was asked was, would you rather vote for a Republican who would keep the same number of troops in Iraq, or would you vote for a Democrat who wanted to immediately pull troops out? They overwhelmingly favored the Republican. So that's a sign to Democrats that the cut-and-run message, immediate withdrawal, even though that's not what they -- a lot -- many of them are proposing, is a dangerous one for them.

MATTHEWS: In other words, people would rather change the leadership than the policy right away.

O'DONNELL: Right. They -- American people do not support immediate withdrawal.

MATTHEWS: You know what I'm afraid of? Afraid of -- I'll tell you what's gonna happen. We're not gonna have a real election debate between somebody who's on one side and somebody on the other. What'll probably happen is the next Republican candidate will be smart enough to be the change agent.

[...]

O'DONNELL: Well, it was interesting that Republicans today were tooting their horn that they think they could actually hold onto the House, even though our NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows it's still tough for them.

MATTHEWS: You know why? It's the math. They picked up two points in two weeks. If they keep doing that, they're up to 50 percent by Election Day. I think that's what they're gonna do -- keep the president on television, keep him arguing, giving long speeches. By the way, every time the president gives a speech longer than a half-hour, it's on the front page the next day.

O'DONNELL: That's right.

MATTHEWS: They must have figured that one out. This is quite a conversation here. Quite revealing among you people.