In an April 9 article on Politico.com, Politico senior political writer Jonathan Martin wrote, “Internal polling data, presented privately last week at the Republican National Committee's state chair meeting and provided to Politico, shows [Sen.] John McCain with a solid lead over both his potential general election rivals. Powered by the same appeal to Democrats and independents that fueled his primary election success, McCain is leading [Sen.] Barack Obama 48 percent to 42 percent and [Sen.] Hillary Clinton 51 percent to 40 percent according to RNC polling done late last month.” While Martin did point out that "[m]ore recent public polls portray a much more competitive race," he did not report -- nor did he give any indication that he had sought -- any additional information about the RNC's "[i]nternal polling data," including the sampling method, the exact wording of the questions asked, the sample size, the margin of error, or who conducted the poll, all of which are recommended by the National Council on Public Polls' principles of disclosure. Nor did Martin provide any justification for treating the results of an internal poll -- favorable to the group doing the polling and inconsistent with those of other "[m]ore recent public polls" -- as newsworthy.

By contrast, discussing the RNC's internal polling on the April 10 edition of MSNBC Live, anchor Tamron Hall asked, "[T]his internal RNC polling data that shows McCain out ahead of the Democrats -- is this reliable, or is this strategy?" Michael Crowley, a senior editor at The New Republic, responded that “internal polling data always has a suspicious way of being somewhat more favorable to the person who did the poll than the external polls.” After Hall asked the Chicago Tribune's Jill Zuckman, “Is there a disconnect, in your opinion, in polling?” Zuckman responded, “No. You know what? I don't take any of this all that seriously.”

Moreover, at least one other recently reported internal Republican poll, which was conducted by the same GOP pollster whom Martin quoted discussing the poll that indicated McCain's “solid lead” over Clinton and Obama, also appears to directly contradict contemporary public opinion polls. A March 14 U.S. News & World Report article reported, “What has the West Wing buzzing is a survey by GOP pollster Ed Goeas of the Tarrance Group that found that, for all his troubles, voters still like the president. 'Fully 56 percent of likely voters approve of the president personally, driven by voter sentiments that he is a person of strong moral character and integrity,' Goeas writes in a private analysis designed for Republican leaders. 'If the situation in Iraq continues to improve and the national economy improves, this goodwill will be crucial in allowing voters to change their assessment of his job performance.' ” Although Media Matters for America could find no polls on Bush's favorability among likely voters, contemporary public opinion polls of registered voters indicate that he is highly unpopular:

• A Diageo/The Hotline poll of 799 registered voters conducted between March 28 and March 31, indicated that 61 percent of respondents had a somewhat unfavorable or strongly unfavorable view of Bush. An earlier Diageo/The Hotline poll of 803 registered voters, conducted between February 14 and February 17, similarly found that 58 percent of respondents had an unfavorable view of Bush.
• An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll of 800 registered voters, conducted between March 24 and March 25, indicated that 54 percent of respondents rated Bush negatively. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll of 1,012 registered voters, conducted between March 7 and March 10, indicated that 55 percent of registered voters rated Bush negatively.

As Media Matters for America documented, during the October 24, 2006, edition of National Public Radio's All Things Considered, former White House senior adviser Karl Rove told host Robert Siegel, “I'm looking at all of these [races], Robert, and adding them up. I add up to a Republican Senate and Republican House. You may end up with a different math but you are entitled to your math and I'm entitled to the math.” Democrats ultimately won 30 House seats and six Senate seats, regaining control of both chambers of Congress.

From Martin's April 9 Politico.com article:

Internal polling data, presented privately last week at the Republican National Committee's state chair meeting and provided to Politico, shows John McCain with a solid lead over both his potential general election rivals. Powered by the same appeal to Democrats and independents that fueled his primary election success, McCain is leading Barack Obama 48 percent to 42 percent and Hillary Clinton 51 percent to 40 percent according to RNC polling done late last month.

He's moved ahead of the two Democrats by consolidating support among Republicans, but also by retaining his backing among a wide swath of independents and picking up a small chunk of cross-party support.

Among independents, McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 39 percent and Clinton 54 percent to 34 percent. Among Democrats, he picks up 20 percent in a race against Obama and leads Barack Obama 48 percent to 39 percent and Senator Clinton 54 percent to 34 percent.

More recent public polls portray a much more competitive race between McCain and either Democrat, with Obama leading in some surveys.

But Republican pollster Ed Goeas said the contrast between the standing of the Republican Party and its actual nominee was reassuring.

“You do have to look at the generic presidential ballot, which is continuing to show a Democrat lead,” said Goeas. “But the fact that McCain is running ahead of both Obama and Clinton, and in terms of net advantage, is running 16-17 poitns [sic] ahead of that deficit is a good thing.”

Providing hope to Goeas and other Republican operatives are two key elements that appear to be shaping the race: McCain's untraditional appeal and the protracted Democratic primary.

“What is most instructive is how McCain is running 10 points ahead among Democrats, compared to what the Democrats are getting from Republicans,” Goeas said.

According to the survey, Obama would take 11 percent of Republican votes and Clinton 6 percent.

“The more intense, more nasty [their race is] the more you're going to solidify a certain group of Democrats that will vote for McCain over whoever gets nomination on the Democratic side.”

But Democrats, while concerned about the ultimate impact of their continuing primary, say McCain's support is soft and much about him remains unknown.

Democratic National Committee officials provided Politico with their own internal polling data, done late last month in 17 swing states, that shows far more voters volunteered knowing “just some” and “very little” about the Republican than those saying they “knew a lot” or even “a fair amount.”

“People don't have a well-formed image about him,” said DNC chairman Howard Dean. “There is very little McCain brand.”

From the 10 a.m. ET hour of the April 10 edition of MSNBC Live:

HALL: This -- as a private, internal RNC polling -- shows John McCain leading Barack Obama by six points and ahead of Hillary Clinton by nine points. Michael Crowley is a senior editor at The New Republic, and Jill Zuckman is a national correspondent for the Chicago Tribune. So, Michael, this internal RNC polling data that shows McCain out ahead of the Democrats -- is this reliable, or is this strategy?

CROWLEY: Well, internal polling data always has a suspicious way of being somewhat more favorable to the person who did the poll than the external polls. But I will say, I mean, a key dynamic that's shaping up early in this race is that, generically voters are saying they vastly prefer Democrats to Republicans -- a Democratic candidate, in the abstract, to a Republican candidate. The thing that should make Democrats a little nervous is that when you actually attach names and say, what about Obama versus McCain? What about Hillary versus McCain? The numbers are much tighter, and in some cases McCain is leading. So the Democratic candidates right now are underperforming, which some Democrats say is because they've got this long, drawn-out, sometimes ugly primary --

HALL: Right.

CROWLEY: They want to get it over with.

Well, Jill, it's interesting, public polls show much more competitive race than those internal RNC numbers we were just talking about. The latest Gallup tracking poll actually puts Obama two points ahead of McCain, shows McCain and Clinton tied in a potential general election matchup. Is there a disconnect, in your opinion, in polling?

ZUCKMAN: No. You know what? I don't take any of this all that seriously. I think it is important that no one's real happy with the Republicans these days, but McCain is competitive with the Democrats when you have the names on them, as Michael was saying.