Research/Study Research/Study

Project 2025 and Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts' views on climate are dangerous and costly

Project 2025, a right-wing blueprint for the next Republican presidential administration, rejects climate science in favor of Big Oil’s preferred policies. Developed by The Heritage Foundation and a coalition of more than 100 conservative organizations, the plan proposes gutting federal agencies that protect the environment and dismantling regulations to allow polluting industries to extract more oil and gas from federal lands with fewer protections.

The plan also calls for dismantling the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the federal agency that tracks hurricanes and provides potentially life-saving information to those in a storm’s path. While bracing for Hurricane Helene, the Miami Herald editorial board made clear the real world dangers of Project 2025’s plan, writing, “In Florida, we live and die — sometimes literally — by what the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service, which are parts of NOAA, tell us. ... And yet, according to Project 2025 — a document hundreds of pages long that lays out a policy agenda and 180-day playbook if the GOP wins the White House — NOAA needs to go.”

The architect of Project 2025, Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts, discussed his views on climate change at a recent event hosted by The New York Times, providing more insight into the thinking behind this controversial and dangerous plan.

Below are six takeaways from the September 25 discussion between journalist David Gelles, who authors The New York Times climate newsletter Climate Forward, and Roberts.

  • Project 2025’s climate and environmental policies are regressive and dangerous

  • In the opening minutes of his discussion with Roberts, Gelles outlined Project 2025’s regressive approach to climate change and the environment while framing that approach around the real-world consequences of a warming climate:

  • “It [Project 2025] is quite a radical overhaul of how the federal government would approach things like climate change, the energy transition, and the regulation of pollutants. … It would propose undoing many of the provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act. … It would drastically scale back climate research in the federal government. It would have the United States withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord. It would weaken the Clean Air Act and promote additional fossil fuel drilling, including on public lands. It calls for the Environmental Protection Agency to be more deferential to industry science and to scale back research into toxic chemical exposure. It would reshape the Endangered Species Act. It would repeal the Antiquities Act to allow more drilling on federal land, and again, the list goes on.”

  • Video file

    Citation From a September 25, 2024, livestream of the 2024 New York Times Climate Forward event 

  • Gelles added, “These proposals, you are making them at a moment when we really are experiencing the effects of climate change.” As examples of the effects we are already experiencing, Gelles discussed the record number of people in the Phoenix area alone who perished due to extreme heat; how insurance companies are pulling out of parts of the country that repeatedly experience extreme weather; and the 28 billion-dollar natural disasters in this year alone that were worsened by climate change.

    After listing many of the safeguards that Project 2025 would see repealed, Gelles pressed Roberts on the conservative movement's plan to address the climate crisis. In part, Roberts responded by suggesting that Project 2025 is intended as a “a corrective to the politicization of the federal government” when it comes to policies that address issues like climate change.

    Gelles rightly questioned Roberts on the initiative’s goal by pointing out that Project 2025 “proposes replacing scientists with political appointees,” and asking Roberts, “How does that undo the politicization of the government?”

  • Like Project 2025, Roberts dismisses the climate crisis and the science that underpins it

  • Roberts pointed to Heritage Foundation research to claim that there has been a “reduction in climate deaths — climate-related deaths — over the last century by 98%.” In reality, that reduction is reportedly attributable at least in part to improvements in forecasting by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency Project 2025 calls for dismantling. Meanwhile, as Reuters reported, “The number, intensity, and cost of climatic and meteorological hazards have all increased over the last hundred years,” despite the decrease in mortality.

    Later in the conversation Roberts attempted to dismiss the scientific consensus on global warming, warning Gelles, “That unanimity of scientists you mentioned, be careful to not to be too abusive with that, because you know better than anybody, that there is a variety of perspectives on the extent of that.” Roberts suggested that climate science supported by the government is biased. In order to correct that supposed bias, he argued euphemistically, “What we’re trying to do with scientific research inside the government — we’re trying to streamline it,” noting: “Government doesn’t have a monopoly on scientific knowledge.” In reality (and as Gelles pointed out), Project 2025 proposes drastically scaling back climate research in the federal government while being “more deferential to industry science.”

    This argument also underpins Project’s 2025’s plan to dismantle NOAA and the false claim that the agency alters temperature data and other research to push the so-called climate agenda.

    Finally, Gelles asked Roberts directly whether there was a degree of warming that he believed the world should stay below:

  • “Independent data has shown that the past year has been the hottest in recorded history. … Independent analysis has made it clear that that’s exacerbating extreme heat, severe weather, drought around the world, and we are on track for at least two degrees — possibly much more of warming. As you think long term … is there any degree of warming that you think the United States or the world should stay below … or are you saying there’s no problem if the world gets to three or four degrees Celsius higher?”

  • Video file

    Citation From a September 25, 2024, livestream of the 2024 New York Times Climate Forward event 

  • In response, Roberts falsely suggested that the heat of the hottest year in recorded history was attributable merely to weather and not the climate. (In fact, as Gelles corrected, it's part of a more than century-long trend.) Roberts then claimed the actions necessary to respond to the climate crisis would be worse than living with the impacts of a warming world: “I think the prescriptions are worse than the disease.”

    In fact, we can’t afford not to respond to the climate crisis. Experts have warned that the costs of inaction far outweigh the costs of transitioning away from fossil fuels. In 2018, Trump attempted to bury a landmark scientific report produced by the federal government’s own scientists that, in part, described “in precise detail how the warming planet will wreak hundreds of billions of dollars of damage in coming decades” if left unchecked.

  • Roberts believes the free market and private citizens can better do the work of the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts

  • Gelles confronted Roberts about Project 2025’s plan to rollback regulations and cut personnel responsible for keeping our air and water clean, asking, “You just said that you care about clean air and clean water. How do those changes actually result in more clean air and water?”

    In response, Roberts suggested that clean air and water can instead be achieved by the free market and private citizens who “want a beautiful environment,” while dismissing the fact that “the United States has some of the cleanest air and water in the world” because of the regulations that Heritage suggests are unnecessary. And there is still work to be done. According to the Environmental Performance Index, 15 countries have cleaner air than the U.S. and 25 have cleaner water. In the U.S., air pollution still causes 200,000 premature deaths each year.

    The Clean Air Act and Clean Water Act were both signed into law under a Republican administration more than five decades ago at a time when air and water quality were rapidly deteriorating. In one stark example from before their passage, the Cuyahoga River, a tributary of the Ohio River, caught fire due to the saturation of private industrial pollution. Meanwhile, unchecked air pollution created dangerous smog:

  • In perhaps the most extreme case, a lethal smog enveloped the manufacturing town of Donora, Pennsylvania, in October 1948, making thousands sick and killing at least 20 people over the course of just five days. Hundreds of New Yorkers died in a smog episode in November 1953, and the following year in Los Angeles, heavy smog shut down industry and schools for most of October.

  • Since its passage, the Clean Air Act has saved millions of lives and trillions of dollars in health care costs.

  • Roberts claims the American people don’t support the Inflation Reduction Act — but he’s wrong

  • Roberts argued that the transition to clean energy, expedited by the Inflation Reduction Act, “is actually harming people far more than any of the harms that you would cite from so-called climate change.”

    Roberts suggested that the IRA was causing “energy inflation,” resulting in high electric bills for Americans. He also rejected Gelles description of the IRA’s successes, including the creation of hundreds of thousands of new jobs and the return of manufacturing to the U.S., as evidenced by the policy’s support from Republicans whose districts have benefited from these new jobs. He claimed that once Americans understand the IRA, they oppose it:

  • “What about the tens of millions of Americans who are struggling to pay their electric bills? … You are fixated because of the blinders you have about the climate agenda, when our perspective at the Heritage is on behalf of not just ordinary Americans, but the global poor who are damaged by these policies. My pleading to you is, if in fact we have common ground, that it is great to have an all-of-the-above energy policy. … How about this current administration reflect that rather than choosing winners and losers? This is why, when the gentleman talks about the Inflation Reduction Act not being known by Americans, when they do know about it and they draw the connections to how it's affecting their pocketbooks, they grow to hate it.”

  • In fact, the Inflation Reduction Act is lowering energy bills for millions of Americans who have taken advantage of its many clean energy and energy efficiency tax credits. Furthermore, polling by the climate change communication programs at Yale and George Mason Universities found that “most registered voters have not heard much about the Inflation Reduction Act,” but that “after reading a short description of the IRA, 74% of registered voters support it.” Project 2025 would dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act.

  • Roberts defended The Heritage Foundation’s support for oil and gas subsidies by pushing misinformation about U.S. energy independence

  • Gelles pointed out that while clean energy subsidies and tax incentives are a sticking point for Heritage, the libertarian think-tank has “defended tax subsidies for the oil and gas industry.”

    Roberts claimed Heritage was not supporting the oil and gas industry but “defending good policy” in recognition that “even for all of you who want to accelerate this energy transition you have to have fossil fuels to do that.”

    Notably, a long history of incentives and policies favoring fossil fuels over clean energy, as advocated by fossil fuel-funded think tanks like Heritage, has contributed to our nation’s continued dependence on fossil fuels.

  • Video file

    Citation From a September 25, 2024, livestream of the 2024 New York Times Climate Forward event 

  • Gelles also pressed Roberts on whether he thought “this administration has hampered the oil and gas industry in this country,” given that there are “record levels of production, exploration continues,” and “profits are at all-time highs.”

    In response, Roberts falsely suggested that the U.S. was “totally energy independent” under Trump and now is instead “very dependent on some of the worst actors in the world.” This myth has been debunked multiple times over the past several years, most recently by MSNBC’s Steven Rattner in response to Trump making this same false assertion during the presidential debate with Vice President Kamala Harris earlier this month. As Rattner pointed out, “The US became a net oil exporter under Biden, not Trump.”

  • Roberts suggested that a clean energy transition can only be achieved through totalitarianism like that of the Chinese Communist Party

  • Roberts claimed that the clean energy transition “benefits the Chinese Communist party,” which he believes to be the “greatest existential threat to the United States.”

    Gelles affirmed that China is leading on production of renewables and suggested that it was all the more reason to support the acceleration of renewable energy production in the U.S.:

  • “The issue with China right now on the climate front is that they are racing ahead with the production of renewables. They are leading in an enormous global industry. Their EV sales are wildly outpacing ours. All of this is allowing them to get a huge head start in what analysts around the globe anticipate to be a multitrillion-dollar market. Are you not concerned that the U.S. is going to lose a step to China, given your concern about our competitiveness, by not investing in these same technologies that we see China going so far with?”

  • Roberts claimed that the only way to compete with China in the clean energy race would be through totalitarianism: “China’s imposition of people buying electric vehicles is the result of having a totalitarian regime. … This is where the Biden-Harris administration wants us to go.”

    The claim that the Biden-Harris administration has implemented a federal mandate on electric vehicles, which Roberts seems to refer to, has been well-refuted. Even so, Roberts’ rhetorical shift deflects from the fact that U.S. clean energy development was set back by a Trump administration that elevated oil and gas development while rolling back climate and environmental policies. Economists say that eliminating the climate policies Roberts has railed against would actually benefit China “by jeopardizing hundreds of billions of dollars in manufacturing investments that have already been made in the United States and sending that work back to other countries, including China.”