Echoing a January 11 Wall Street Journal article, headlined "Democrats' Litmus: Electability" (subscription required), CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider asserted on the January 22 edition of CNN's The Situation Room that the “three frontrunners” for the Democratic nomination -- Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (NY), Sen. Barack Obama (IL), and 2004 vice presidential nominee and former Sen. John Edwards (NC) -- “all face questions about their electability,” while the “three frontrunners” for the Republican nomination -- former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, Sen. John McCain (AZ), and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney -- “all face questions about their conservatism.”
As Media Matters for America noted, the Journal purported to examine whether Democratic voters would consider whether Clinton and Obama were “electable” in a nationwide race, compared with Giuliani, McCain, and Romney, who the Journal article said are “considered electable.”
While CNN has not made public whether its January 19-21 poll includes a general election match-up, Schneider mentioned only intraparty results on The Situation Room. However, according to CNN's own December 15-17 poll, carrying a margin of error of +\- 3 percent, when asked to vote for either Clinton, McCain, Romney, or Giuliani, respondents were split evenly between Clinton and McCain (47 percent), and favored Clinton over both Giuliani (48 percent-46 percent) and Romney (57 percent-34 percent). When respondents were asked about head-to-head match-ups involving Obama, Obama trailed Giuliani (47 percent-43 percent) and McCain (49 percent-42 percent) but was favored over Romney (51 percent-35 percent).
Additionally, a January 17-18 Newsweek poll found that Clinton was favored over McCain (48 percent-47 percent) in a potential general election match-up, but was outpolled by Giuliani (48 percent-47 percent). Obama was favored over McCain (46 percent-44 percent) but was outpolled by Giuliani (47 percent-45 percent). Edwards was favored over both McCain (48 percent-43 percent) and Giuliani (48 percent-45 percent). The poll's margin of error was +\- 4 percent.
Also echoing the Journal, Schneider suggested that Romney, McCain, and Giuliani face the challenge of persuading the GOP base that they are conservative enough. The Journal had reported that the three “have the opposite problem of their Democratic counterparts. Each of them is considered electable. The question is whether they can get nominated in a party in which the conservative base demands that the nominee oppose abortion, same-sex marriage and taxes, but believes that each of these men is suspect.” As Media Matters noted in response to that assertion:
[T]he reason Romney and McCain may be considered “suspect” by the conservative base is not that the candidates' views are different from those held by the base on these issues, but that they have hedged or flip-flopped on them. According to The Washington Post, Romney, in preparation for his 2008 presidential bid, became “an outspoken opponent of same-sex marriage and supported overturning the Supreme Court decision that legalized abortion,” but during his 1994 Senate campaign, Romney boasted he would be “effective in fighting discrimination against gay men and lesbians” and “proudly recalled his family's record in support of abortion rights.”
As Media Matters for America has noted, McCain has equivocated or flip-flopped on all of these issues. McCain offered a nonsensical defense of South Dakota's proposed ban on all abortions except when the life of the woman is threatened -- he claimed he would have signed the bill into law but would “also take the appropriate steps under state law ... to ensure that the exceptions of rape, incest or life of the mother were included.” He voted to extend the 2003 tax cuts on dividends and capital gains after years of opposing them. And he has taken several inconsistent positions on gay rights issues.
From the January 22 edition of CNN's The Situation Room:
SCHNEIDER: There are three frontrunners for each party. For the Democrats: Clinton, Obama, and Edwards -- and they all face questions about their electability. For the Republicans: Giuliani, McCain, and Romney. They all face questions about their conservatism, which is why so many other candidates think they have a chance.