Varney makes absurd claim that jobs “weren't in jeopardy” due to state budget shortfalls

Varney: “Those jobs weren't in jeopardy.” On the July 16 edition of Fox News' Fox & Friends, guest Stuart Varney attempted to discredit job creation estimates by the White House by claiming that public sector jobs threatened by state budget shortfalls “weren't in jeopardy.” From Fox & Friends:

DOOCY: We also know that when they say “saved or created,” that metric simply has never been used before and they're making that up.

VARNEY: How do you prove it? How do you prove that we saved this job? How on earth do you prove such a thing? That's political spin.

KILMEADE: Is the easy answer is that if you give the states this money, they are able to keep teachers employed , they are able to keep workers employed. Is that the way you save a job?

VARNEY: Assuming that those jobs were in jeopardy in the first place. Were we really going to lay off 10,000 teachers or what ever it was? Those jobs weren't in jeopardy.

Varney: Job creation estimates are “all theory.” Also during the segment, co-host Alisyn Camerota told Varney that “The CBO backs up some of what the Vice President said. I think the CBO said - which is nonpartisan - Congressional Budget Office says 2 million jobs. So maybe this is just a PR problem. Maybe the jobs really have been created but the public just doesn't know it.” Varney responded “No, no, it was a theory. They didn't go out and count the jobs. They stuck information into a computer model...That's all theory. What we do know for a fact is that since the stimulus plan was passed, a net 2.5 million jobs have been lost from the US economy.”

Stimulus funds credited for creating or saving numerous public sector jobs

CEA: COPS stimulus grants “will keep an additional 4,699 police officers on the streets.” In its July 14 quarterly report on the stimulus' economic impact, the Council of Economic Advisors stated:

The Department of Justice's Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS) received $1 billion to pay up to 3 years of full salary and benefits for newly hired law enforcement officers or to rehire officers who had been laid off due to budget cuts. The program received more than 7,000 applications from local law enforcement agencies within two months of the Recovery Act's passage, and made 1,046 awards that will keep an additional 4,699 police officers on the streets. The Office of Justice Programs will allocate another $2 billion to support state and local law enforcement agencies in high crime areas.

Center on Education Policy report: "[N]early two-thirds of all school districts have used the federal stimulus money...to save or create teaching jobs in the 2009-10 school year." A July 15 report by the Center on Education Policy, titled, “School Districts' Perspectives on the Economic Stimulus Package: Teaching Jobs Saved in 2009-10 But Teacher Layoffs Loom for Next School Year” found:

While nearly two-thirds of all school districts have used the federal stimulus money from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) to save or create teaching jobs in the 2009-10 school year, as many as three quarters of the nation's school districts expect to cut teaching jobs in 2010-11 due to budget decreases, according to a new survey of districts released today by the Center on Education Policy (CEP).

Local reporting cites stimulus funds in saving firefighter jobs. Local reporting from across the country confirms that firefighters' jobs have been saved as a direct result of stimulus funding.

Reporting confirms budget shortfalls put thousands of jobs in jeopardy

USA Today: “State and local governments plan many more layoffs to close wide budget gaps.” A July 5 USA Today article wrote:

State and local governments plan many more layoffs to close wide budget gaps.

Up to 400,000 workers could lose jobs in the next year as states, counties and cities grapple with lower revenue and less federal funding, says Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com.

AP: States are responding to budget shortfalls by “cutting services and laying off employees.” A July 3 Associated Press article reported that state employee job security is “gone, too. States and municipalities are facing gaping budget gaps. Many have responded by slashing services, raising taxes and, for the first time in decades, making deep job cuts.”

CSM reports steep job loses due to state budget shortfalls. An October 2009 Christian Science Monitor article reported that:

According to a tally by IHS Global Insight, an economic consulting firm, state and local governments have now lost 160,000 jobs over the past four months. IHS notes that this month, 29,000 of those losses came in state and local education.

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Although the unemployment rate rose, it could have been much worse since an increasing number of people are dropping out of the workforce, says Brown. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, civilian labor force participation rate declined by 0.3 percent in September to 65.2 percent.

Independent analysts agree stimulus significantly raised employment over what would have happened otherwise

CEA: Recovery Act “has raised employment relative to what it otherwise would have been by between 2.5 and 3.6 million.” The CEA report estimated that as of the second quarter of 2010, the Recovery Act, “has raised employment relative to what it otherwise would have been by between 2.5 and 3.6 million.” CEA also included a chart of private and independent analysts' estimates of the Recovery Act's impact on employment:

CBO estimates job impact of between 1.4 and 3.4 million. According to the CEA chart, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the Recovery Act raised employment by 1.4 to 3.4 million as of the second quarter of 2010.

IHS/Global Insight estimates job impact of 2.1 million. According to the CEA chart, IHS/Global Insight estimates that the Recovery Act raised employment by 2.1 million as of the second quarter of 2010.

Moody's Economy.com estimates job impact of 2.2 million. The CEA chart shows that Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy.com estimates that the Recovery Act raised employment by 2.2 million as of the second quarter of 2010.

Macroeconomic Advisers estimates job impact of 1.8 million. The CEA chart noted that Macroeconomic Advisers estimates that the Recovery Act raised employment by 1.8 million as of the second quarter of 2010.

AP: "[G]rowing body of independent economic analysis suggests the law has boosted jobs." A July 14 Associated Press article about the White House's stimulus figures stated that while “exactly how many jobs” the Recovery Act has created “is a matter of dispute,” “a growing body of independent economic analysis suggests the law has boosted jobs and kept people off the unemployment line.”