A March 4 USA Today article, headlined “McCain looks to California,” reported that "[Sen.] John McCain and his aides are already thinking about which states to target in the fall and one tops the list: California." The article quoted McCain as saying, “I want to compete in California,” and uncritically reported that McCain “say[s] his outlook on such issues as the environment will be a help in the traditionally blue state.” But the article did not note that according to the most recent state poll, McCain trails both Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama by more than 20 points or that McCain has a lifetime score of 24 percent from the League of Conservation Voters (LCV). USA Today published similar articles about the strategy of the Republican nominees in 1996 and 2000 -- elections in which the Democratic candidate defeated the Republican candidate in California by double digits -- but noted in those articles that the Republican nominee trailed in the polls at the time.

The SurveyUSA poll, conducted February 15-17 with a +/- 4.4 percent margin of error, found Clinton leading McCain in California 58 percent to 35 percent, and Obama leading McCain 61 percent to 34 percent. Further, significantly more Californians voted in the 2008 Democratic primary than in the Republican one -- 4.4 million compared with 2.5 million.

While the March 4 article reported that McCain “say[s] his outlook on such issues as the environment will be a help in the traditionally blue state,” the LCV asserted in a February 21 press release: “Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) scored 0 percent in 2007 (24 percent lifetime) due to missing all 15 votes scored, including the key vote on repealing tax giveaways to big oil -- a measure that failed by only one vote.”

USA Today published similar articles highlighting the Republican nominee's intention to compete in the traditionally Democratic state prior to the 2000 and 1996 presidential elections, but noted in the articles that the Republican trailed at the time. An April 10, 2000, article reported that then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush “insists he's not going to cede California to Vice President Gore, and behind the scenes he is laying the groundwork for an all-out battle here." The article also quoted Bush's assertion that “I know there's a rumor going around that somehow I'm not going to compete in California. ... That's wishful thinking on the part of Al Gore." The article also noted that “Steve Kinney, a Republican pollster based in Los Angeles, says Bush trailed Gore 46%-39% in a survey of 600 likely California voters he conducted March 26-27.” Gore went on to defeat Bush in California by 12 percentage points, 54 percent to 42 percent. From the article (accessed via the Nexis database):

Never mind the gossip, Texas Gov. George W. Bush says. He insists he's not going to cede California to Vice President Gore, and behind the scenes he is laying the groundwork for an all-out battle here.

It won't be easy. Bush must overcome Gore's lead in the polls, the Democratic Party's 1.5 million-person advantage in registered voters, and views on guns, abortion and the environment that are at odds with many Californians'.

But if Bush's “compassionate conservatism” doesn't connect with California's open-minded voters, his aides know it probably won't work in enough places for him to win the White House. And many of the state's GOP leaders think they might finally have found a winning candidate who can help other candidates here win.

On a two-day California campaign swing last week, Bush said he won't walk away from the fight. “I know there's a rumor going around that somehow I'm not going to compete in California," he said. “That's wishful thinking on the part of Al Gore.”

California's significance is a simple matter of electoral arithmetic. It takes 270 electoral votes to win the White House, and California has 54 of them. There's also a strategic reason candidates promise to work hard in California: If they can force their rival to spend time and money here, that foe will have fewer resources to devote to other states.

[...]

Steve Kinney, a Republican pollster based in Los Angeles, says Bush trailed Gore 46%-39% in a survey of 600 likely California voters he conducted March 26-27. But Kinney says that's not much of a deficit, and he detects a shift away from the Democratic Party.

Kinney says “swing” voters, those who don't vote consistently for one political party, will decide the election. Those voters, about 25% of the electorate, are “socially moderate, fiscally conservative and very much driven by the education issue,” Kinney says. Bush talks about education almost every day.

Similarly, USA Today reported in a June 24, 1996, article, headlined “Dole making a play for California,” that "[former Sen. Bob] Dole believes he's got a fighting chance for California's 54 electoral votes." The article also reported: “California is struggling back from recession. And many middle-class voters are seething over crime, illegal immigration and wage stagnation. Dole believes he can sway those anxious voters. And he's pounding on the theme that Clinton talks like a friend but has 'waged war on California.' ” The article also noted that "[a] California Field Poll conducted June 10-16 showed [President Bill] Clinton ahead in California by 23 percentage points, 57%-34%," and that “last Friday, Republican National Committee Chairman Haley Barbour sent GOP leaders a memo describing an RNC poll showing Dole behind in California by only 12%.” Clinton went on to defeat Dole in California by 13 points, 51 percent to 38 percent. From the article (accessed via Nexis):

For clues about Bob Dole's 1996 campaign strategy, take a look at his travel itinerary.

Next week, he goes to California for the third time in six weeks. His wife, Elizabeth, has been there even more often, including a six-day tour.

The message is clear: Dole believes he's got a fighting chance for California's 54 electoral votes. And he intends to lure President Clinton into spending time and money here at the expense of other battleground states.

In recent years, California has had a reputation as a liberal enclave with an affinity for Democrats. But it is the home of Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, who both carried the state. Not until 1992, when George Bush decided to bypass the campaign here, did Democrats solidify their hold.

But now California is struggling back from recession. And many middle-class voters are seething over crime, illegal immigration and wage stagnation.

Dole believes he can sway those anxious voters. And he's pounding on the theme that Clinton talks like a friend but has “waged war on California.”

It's a refrain Dole will reinforce in frequent visits and in TV ads. Two vice presidential prospects, Gov. Pete Wilson and Attorney General Dan Lungren, are helping.

[...]

Clinton strategist Bill Carrick says Dole's attacks won't work. Californians “feel good about Clinton,” he says. “When the Bush-Dole team was running the economy, we were in a recession.”

Carrick says Dole's courtship is a “head fake,” a replay of 1992, when Bush said he'd compete in California but walked away from it in the fall.

Ken Khachigian, who's running Dole's California campaign, says, “This train is going down the tracks, and I fervently hope that the Clinton folks still think that this is a bluff.”

A California Field Poll conducted June 10-16 showed Clinton ahead in California by 23 percentage points, 57%-34%.

But last Friday, Republican National Committee Chairman Haley Barbour sent GOP leaders a memo describing an RNC poll showing Dole behind in California by only 12%.

From the March 4 USA Today article:

John McCain and his aides are already thinking about which states to target in the fall and one tops the list: California.

“I want to compete in California,” the Arizona senator said Monday, saying his outlook on such issues as the environment will be a help in the traditionally blue state. McCain also enjoys the support of California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican.

The task is daunting -- no Republican nominee has taken California since the first President Bush in 1988.

Senior adviser Steve Schmidt, a former aide to Schwarzenegger, said California “is closer to being a purple state than a blue state.” He said McCain's appeal to independents also gives him a chance in other states normally thought of as Democratic. According to the Almanac of American Politics, in the 2004 presidential election, Democrat John Kerry won Washington, New Jersey, Connecticut, Maine and California with at least 53% of the vote.