If you don't recall what Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan concluded back in November of 2009, when Democrats won a special election and turned a historically red district blue in upstate New York, let me refresh your memory:

The congressional race in upstate New York was too messy, too local, and too full of jumbly facts to yield a theme that coheres.

At the time, the fledgling Tea Party focused intently on the New York race, poured money into the contest and announced the race would be a national referendum. Republicans then lost the seat for the first time in more than 150 years. After the ballots were counted, Noonan concluded the Congressional special election didn't signify much of anything, and that it certainly did not tell us anything about Obama's standing.

Fast-forward to today and Noonan is sure that this week's Congressional special election in Brooklyn, N.Y., where a Republican won in a traditionally Democratic district, was deeply meaningful and had all kinds of national implications.

Noonan can't lose with that approach.