WSJ's Strassel falsely claimed McCain drew more NH independents to the GOP primary in 2008

Written by Andrew Seifter

Published

As purported evidence that Sen. John McCain “has the potential to swing critical independents,” The Wall Street Journal's Kimberley A. Strassel wrote: “New Hampshire Independents got to choose their primary last month, and the early betting was that they'd flock to the Democrats and Mr. [Barack] Obama. In fact, they made up a greater share of the Republican primary vote than they did in 2000, drawn by Mr. McCain.” However, according to exit polling, many more independents voted in the 2008 Democratic New Hampshire primary than Republican primary, many more independents voted for Obama than McCain, and independents represented a larger portion of Republican primary voters in 2000 than in 2008.

As purported evidence that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) “has the potential to swing critical independents,” Wall Street Journal editorial board member Kimberley A. Strassel wrote in her February 1 “Potomac Watch” column: “New Hampshire Independents got to choose their primary last month, and the early betting was that they'd flock to the Democrats and [Sen.] Mr. [Barack] Obama [IL]. In fact, they made up a greater share of the Republican primary vote than they did in 2000, drawn by Mr. McCain.” But Strassel's assertion rests on two falsehoods, as indicated by exit polling: 1) that more independents in New Hampshire voted in the 2008 Republican primary than the Democratic primary, and 2) that independents represented a larger portion of Republican primary voters in 2008 than in they did in 2000.

According to exit poll data, 44 percent of voters in the 2008 New Hampshire Democratic primary were self-described independents, while independents made up 37 percent of the vote in the Republican primary. Moreover, 284,104 total people voted in the Democratic primary compared to 233,381 people who cast votes in the Republican primary, meaning that, if the exit polling was correct, approximately 125,005 independents voted in the Democratic primary and approximately 86,351 independents voted in the Republican primary. Concerning Strassel's suggestion that McCain had greater appeal to New Hampshire independents than Obama, according to the exit polling, Obama received 41 percent of independents who voted in the Democratic primary, or approximately 51,252 total votes from independents, while McCain received 40 percent of the independent vote in the Republican primary, or about 34,540 total votes from independents.

Moreover, while Strassel claimed that, “drawn by Mr. McCain,” independents constituted “a greater share” of the New Hampshire Republican primary vote in 2008 than in 2000, the opposite is actually the case. According to exit poll data from 2000, 41 percent of Republican primary voters in New Hampshire were independents -- four percentage points more than in 2008. According to exit polling, McCain received the support of 62 percent of independents who voted in the 2000 Republican primary, compared to 40 percent of those who voted in the 2008 primary.

From Strassel's February 1 column, headlined “The McCain Calculus”:

Mr. McCain has the potential to swing critical independents. This would matter against any Democrat, but in particular against Mr. Obama. New Hampshire Independents got to choose their primary last month, and the early betting was that they'd flock to the Democrats and Mr. Obama. In fact, they made up a greater share of the Republican primary vote than they did in 2000, drawn by Mr. McCain.