One of them is wrong.
From Halperin today [emphasis added]:
The coalition that got Barack Obama elected President just two years ago has been shattered. Gaming out the trajectory of the next two years can be done any number of ways, but Obama's efforts to rebuild a politically robust alliance will be the most telling.
From NBC's First Read today:
Obama 'core' coalition hardly 'shattered'
Which one is right? Hint: The First Read bases its conclusion of recent, and specific, polling data. Halperin does not.
How lazy is Halperin's He's-Doomed analysis? This lazy:
A survey of the political landscape shows that many groups who were part of the 2008-09 Obama coalition have turned on him.
- Blacks: 90% approve/6% disapprove- Democrats: 82/12- Liberals: 79/16- Latinos: 56/33- Post grads: 56/41- Women: 52/43- 18-34: 49/43