Wash. Post touted misleading poll question to assert that the majority of Americans “oppose a deadline for getting out of Iraq”

In a Washington Post article, staff writers Dan Balz and Richard Morin cited the results of a misleading poll question to assert that a majority of Americans “oppose a deadline for getting out of Iraq.” But the poll set up a false dichotomy between two Republican talking points -- that proponents of withdrawing troops from Iraq only wish to do so “in order to avoid further casualties,” and that “pull[ing] out would only encourage the anti-government insurgents.”

In a June 27 article by staff writers Dan Balz and Richard Morin (portions of which were republished July 2, according to the Nexis database), The Washington Post cited the results of a misleading ABC News/Washington Post poll question to report that a majority of Americans “oppose a deadline for getting out of Iraq.” The poll set up a false dichotomy between two Republican talking points -- that proponents of withdrawing troops from Iraq are motivated to do so only “in order to avoid further casualties,” and that “pull[ing] out would only encourage the anti-government insurgents.” By contrast, three other recent polls that asked whether respondents favored withdrawing troops, without suggesting possible reasons, found that a plurality or majority of Americans support a timetable for withdrawing from Iraq.

The poll asked the following question to gauge whether respondents favored a deadline for withdrawing troops from Iraq:

Some people say the Bush administration should set a deadline for withdrawing U.S. military forces from Iraq in order to avoid further casualties. Others say knowing when the U.S. would pull out would only encourage the anti-government insurgents. Do you yourself think the United States should or should not set a deadline for withdrawing U.S. forces from Iraq?

According to the poll, 51 percent of respondents indicated they did not support a “deadline” for U.S. troop withdrawal, while 47 percent indicated they did support such a deadline.

By framing the arguments for and against troop withdrawal in such a manner, the poll appeared to adopt talking points put forth by Republicans who oppose any timetable for troop withdrawal. For instance, the Associated Press reported that during a June 12 speech to New Hampshire Republicans, White House senior adviser Karl Rove stated that Democrats who support withdrawing troops “are ready to give the green light to go to war, but when it gets tough and when it gets difficult, they fall back on that party's old pattern of cutting and running.” As the Salon weblog War Room noted on June 27:

In other words, [the poll asked] should we get out just to save American lives, even if that would be a victory for the terrorists? Karl Rove couldn't have framed the question much better himself -- and 47 percent of the respondents still said that some timetable is better than no timetable.

In fact, leading supporters of establishing a timetable for withdrawal have offered many arguments to justify their position, none of which hinge on the fear of “further casualties” as the ABC/Post poll suggested. Recently, Senate Democrats offered two proposals for establishing a timetable for troop withdrawal. Sens. John Kerry (D-MA), Russell Feingold (D-WI), and Barbara Boxer (D-CA) presented an amendment that called for a “deadline of July 1, 2007, for U.S. troops to be redeployed out of Iraq.” In a joint statement, Kerry and Feingold argued that a deadline for troop withdrawal was necessary because "[a] deadline gives Iraqis the best chance for stability and self-government" and “it allows us to begin refocusing on the true threats that face our country.” Kerry and Feingold also stated that their “amendment recognizes the need to keep an over-the-horizon military presence in the Middle East to fight al Qaeda and its affiliates and protect regional security interests” but that “as long as 130,000 U.S. troops remain in Iraq indefinitely, that country will remain what a series of mistakes have made it -- a crucible for the recruitment and development of terrorists determined to fight Americans and an obstacle to an Iraqi government capable of governing and securing its country. Our troops have done their job in Iraq.”

Sens. Carl Levin (D-MI) and Jack Reed (D-RI) also offered an amendment to establish a timetable for beginning to withdraw troops from Iraq. Rather than set a specific date, the amendment called for a “change [of] course” in Iraq policy, which, among other things, called for the commencement of troop “redeployment” by the end of 2006. Levin and Reed argued that the United States' current strategy of “open-ended” presence in Iraq was counterproductive to the formulation of a permanent Iraqi government. A joint press release announcing the introduction of the amendment noted:

The Levin-Reed amendment does not address the speed or pace of the redeployment, i.e., it doesn't establish a timetable for redeployment and it does not call for a precipitous withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq. It urges that phased redeployment begin this year as a way of moving from an open-ended commitment and Iraqi dependency.

Both Democratic amendments were voted down in the Senate.

Additionally, other troop withdrawal supporters, such as Rep. John P. Murtha (D-PA), argue that continued U.S. presence in Iraq is fueling insurgent attacks, while hindering the Iraqi government and alienating the United States from allies.

By contrast, three other polls that asked respondents about troop withdrawal in Iraq, without offering any justification for or against doing so, found that a plurality or majority of respondents supported a timetable for withdrawing troops from Iraq. For instance, a USA Today/Gallup poll (subscription required) released the same day as the ABC/Post poll presented respondents with four potential plans for dealing with the U.S. military presence in Iraq:

Here are four different plans the U.S. could follow in dealing with the war in Iraq. Which ONE do you prefer...withdraw all troops from Iraq immediately, withdraw all troops by July 2007 -- that is, in 12 months' time, withdraw troops, but take as many years to do this as are needed to turn control over to the Iraqis, (or) send more troops to Iraq.

When presented with specific plans rather than talking points, 50 percent favored withdrawing troops either immediately or within one year, while 41 percent preferred a withdrawal plan with no specific end date. Eight percent supported bringing in additional troops.

Similarly, a June 14-19 survey conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press found that 52 percent of respondents believed that the United States should “set a timetable for when troops will be withdrawn from Iraq,” while 42 percent disagreed. A CNN poll conducted June 14-15 similarly found that 53 percent of respondents believed that the “U.S. should set a timetable for withdrawal,” while 41 percent opposed such a measure.