Luntz: Voters in IN, NE, AR, “do not want this legislation” because of the “the cost to the deficit”

From the November 8 edition of ABC's This Week with George Stephanopoulos:

LUNTZ: I feel sorry for Evan Bayh and for Blanche Lincoln -- senators from Indiana, Arkansas. I know Nebraska, Ben Nelson --

COKIE ROBERTS: Mary Landrieu.

LUNTZ: -- Mary Landrieu of Louisiana -- these states do not want this legislation. And they don't want it because of the personal costs and the cost to the deficit. They're conservative states economically and a lot of senators are going to have to cast some very difficult votes.

Voters in IN, NE, AR support public option in health care reform

In Arkansas, 56 percent support public option: According to a Research 2000 poll conducted for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC) and Democracy for America (DFA), 56 percent of Arkansas residents support a public option. The poll, conducted October 27-28, asked Arkansas residents if they favored or opposed “the government offering everyone a government administered health insurance plan -- something like the Medicare coverage that people 65 and older get -- that would compete with private health insurance plans.”

In Indiana, 52 percent support public option: Similarly, an October 24-25 Research 2000 poll conducted for PCCC and DFA found that 52 percent of Indiana residents support “the government offering everyone a government administered health insurance plan -- something like the Medicare coverage that people 65 and older get -- that would compete with private health insurance plans.”

In Nebraska, within the margin of error: An October 29-30 Research 2000 poll conducted for PCCC and DFA found that Nebraskans are split on the public option. When asked if they favored or opposed “the government offering everyone a government administered health insurance plan -- something like the Medicare coverage that people 65 and older get -- that would compete with private health insurance plans,” 46 percent favored such a plan, while 44 percent opposed it.

House, Senate Finance bills will reduce deficit

CBO estimated federal budget deficit reductions of $109 billion during first decade. Contrary to Luntz's claim that health care reform will increase the deficit, the Congressional Budget Office found that the House health care reform bill, the Affordable Health Care for America Act (H.R. 3962) “would yield a net reduction in federal budget deficits of $109 billion over the 2010-2019 period.”

CBO also found the Senate Finance Bill would reduce the deficit by $81 billion over 10 years. The October 7 CBO analysis of the Senate Finance Committee bill found:

According to CBO and JCT's assessment, enacting the Chairman's mark, as amended, would result in a net reduction in federal budget deficits of $81 billion over the 2010-2019 period (see Table 1). The estimate includes a projected net cost of $518 billion over 10 years for the proposed expansions in insurance coverage. That net cost itself reflects a gross total of $829 billion in credits and subsidies provided through the exchanges, increased net outlays for Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), and tax credits for small employers; those costs are partly offset by $201 billion in revenues from the excise tax on high-premium insurance plans and $110 billion in net savings from other sources. The net cost of the coverage expansions would be more than offset by the combination of other spending changes that CBO estimates would save $404 billion over the 10 years and other provisions that JCT and CBO estimate would increase federal revenues by $196 billion over the same period.1 In subsequent years, the collective effect of those provisions would probably be continued reductions in federal budget deficits. Those estimates are all subject to substantial uncertainty. [emphasis added]