New York Times Reported China Revised Coal Use Data

The New York Times: “China Burns Much More Coal Than Reported.” The New York Times reported on November 3 that China “has been burning up to 17 percent more coal a year than the government previously disclosed, according to newly released data.” The Times further reported:

The new data, which appeared recently in an energy statistics yearbook published without fanfare by China's statistical agency, show that coal consumption has been underestimated since 2000, and particularly in recent years. The revisions were based on a census of the economy in 2013 that exposed gaps in data collection, especially from small companies and factories.

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The revised numbers do not alter scientists' estimates of the total amount of carbon dioxide in the air. That is measured directly, not inferred from fuel consumption statistics the way countries' emissions are usually estimated. [The New York Times, 11/4/15]

China's Revisions Were Due To Improved Accounting, Not Wrongdoing

TIME: Revisions Unsurprising To Energy Experts Who Say “China Has Slowly Become Better At Measuring And Reporting Energy Use.” TIME reported that experts said the revisions were not “underhanded plotting,” but rather occured because China has “slowly become better at measuring and reporting energy use and carbon dioxide pollution in recent years”:

[E]xperts say the real reason China underreported the amount of coal it's burning is probably more a matter of bureaucratic inefficiency than underhanded plotting.

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The numbers came as little surprise to energy experts who said that China has slowly become better at measuring and reporting energy use and carbon dioxide pollution in recent years, as the country has renewed its commitment to addressing climate change.

Experts attributed much of the previously unreported coal consumption to broadly scattered plants and factories that the national government may have difficulty regulating.

“This has been coming for awhile,” said Alden Meyer, director of strategy and policy at the Union of Concerned Scientists. “The Chinese would be the first to acknowledge that they need to continue to invest in their monitoring and transparency regime domestically to get a better handle on emissions.”

China has ramped up its efforts against global warming in recent years, including by promising to introduce measures to ensure transparency. The country has collaborated with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to improve its measurement and reporting techniques since as early as 2009.

Other measures have sought to decrease reliance on coal and other energy sources that produce high levels of carbon pollution. [TIME, 11/4/15]

Experts: “The Good News Is China Is Not Hiding From This,” It's “Heartening” China Corrected The Data. Multiple experts have explained that the “revisions are not a sign of Chinese obfuscation,” according to Mashable. Kelly Sims Gallagher, who directs the Center for International Environment and Resource Policy at Tufts University's Fletcher School, said to Mashable: “Obviously it is not good news that China's coal consumption was much higher than previously thought, but it is heartening that China corrected the data and reported it transparently.” And Natural Resources Defense Council senior attorney Barbara Finamore told The Huffington Post that "[t]he good news is China is not hiding from this. They're working hard to improve the ability to monitor coal use and carbon pollution, so that's where these figures are coming from." [Mashable, 11/4/15; Huffington Post, 11/5/15]

China Academy Of Sciences Researcher: China Has “Made Great Strides ... To Improve The Way Its Numbers Are Collected.” Reuters reported that although getting accurate data in China “remains a daunting task,” the country says “it recognizes the need to produce better data.” The article also quoted China Academy of Sciences researcher Xi Fengming, who pointed to examples of how China “has made great strides since 2012 to improve the way its numbers are collected”:

Officially, China says it recognizes the need to produce better data. It promised the United Nations in June to train auditors to collect better data and to produce “regular” national carbon numbers.

“The Chinese government has been funding studies into the carbon inventory - it needs to know its real level of emissions in order to reduce it,” said Xi Fengming, a researcher with the China Academy of Sciences (CASS) who has spent the last six years researching the country's total carbon levels.

Xi says China had made great strides since 2012 to improve the way its numbers are collected, including crackdowns on illegal coal production and the statistical fraud by energy-intensive enterprises. It has been experimenting with drones to detect carbon dioxide build-ups in urban areas, and has launched pilot projects to measure energy consumption levels in real-time at industrial facilities. [Reuters, 11/9/15]

Some Studies Suggest China May Be Overestimating Carbon Emissions. Reuters also noted that China is “the only country apart from Russia to use raw coal production rather than sales to calculate overall output,” which, along with an August study published in the journal Nature, suggests that China may actually be overestimating its carbon emissions:

China is the only country apart from Russia to use raw coal production rather than sales to calculate overall output, which fails to account for the losses that accrue during processing and transportation and also ignores waste products like gangue, which could account for around 18 percent of raw coal output.

These gaps could mean that China's emissions are actually being overestimated, a government researcher said.

All this riddles the system with imperfections. A study published last month by the magazine Nature suggested China's emissions could have actually been exaggerated by as much as 14 percent because of faulty assumptions about the quality of China's coal. [Reuters, 11/9/15; Nature, 8/19/15]

Data Revisions Were Known About For Months, Already Incorporated Into U.N. Climate Negotiations

Mashable: Chinese Data Revision Should Not Come As Surprise “To Those Who Are In The Weeds Of Climate Policy Making.” Mashable reported that China's revised coal use data “should not come as a complete surprise to those who are in the weeds of climate policy making, including the U.S. State Department”:

The revision should not come as a complete surprise to those who are in the weeds of climate policy making, including the U.S. State Department.

Coal consumption figures began to be revised upwards as long ago as February. In September, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued a report that found energy-related coal consumption in China between 2000 to 2013 was as much as 14% higher than previously reported. [Mashable, 11/4/15]

World Resources Institute (WRI) Expert: Most Studies Published This Year Already Take Revised Data Into Account, China Still Likely To Meet And Exceed Energy Targets. Mashable reported:

Ranping Song, developing countries climate action manager for the World Resources Institute, said because the revisions began occurring late last winter, they are not likely to endanger the Paris talks -- which are increasingly seen as among the most promising climate talks to date.

“Most of the studies published since the beginning of the year already take into account this data,” Song said. “I don't think this will have any impact on the negotiations side just because it's already been understood and discussed.”

For example, a study released by the U.N. on October 30, which found that the Paris Summit commitments to-date would get the world about halfway to its 2-degree target, included the revised Chinese data, Song said.

Song's research, along with that of his WRI colleagues, shows that China is likely to meet and exceed its targets on the energy intensity of its economy and other measures through at least the end of this year.

“I think this is a capacity issue rather than a deliberate intention to manipulate data,” Song said. He notes that China is a large developing country with less sophisticated emissions accounting systems compared to industrialized nations like the U.S. and European Union.

“I don't believe that this undermines China's credibility, it showcases its commitment,” he said. [Mashable, 11/4/15]

Science Magazine: “Several Experts” Agree With WRI That Higher Coal Consumption Rate Already Known And Has Been Factored Into Upcoming Talks. Science magazine reported that other experts agreed with WRI's Song:

A front page story in The New York Times (NYT) on 3 November proclaimed that Chinese officials had suddenly, though quietly, announced that the country was burning up to 17% more coal a year than was previously disclosed. The story also suggested that the higher estimate posed difficulties for the upcoming United Nations summit in Paris on greenhouse gas emissions. But several experts say the higher rate of coal consumption has been known for months and has already been factored into the negotiations.

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“The WRI commentary is correct,” says Josep Canadell, an earth system scientist at Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation in Canberra who is also executive director of the Global Carbon Project, which tracks greenhouse gas pollution.

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I don't think [the revised data] will affect the climate negotiations," says Sha Fu, an environmental economist at China's National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation in Beijing who is a member of the Chinese delegation to the talks.

Fu notes that the statistics bureau released further details on the revisions in May before finalizing data on energy use since 2000 in the energy chapter of the China Statistical Yearbook 2014 published in late August. The release of the yearbook apparently led to the NYT article. [Science, 11/5/15]

But Conservative Media Accused China Of “Lying” About Coal Use, Used Story To Undermine International Climate Talks

Forbes On Fox Panel Agrees: China's “Cheating” Is “Proof It's Time To Stop Making Phony Deals On Climate Change.” On the November 7 edition of Fox News' Forbes on Fox, host David Asman claimed that China is “cheating” and “cooking the books on coal,” and asked his panelists if the news about China's coal usage is “more proof it's time to stop making phony deals on climate change.” Five of the six panelists criticized the idea of making a climate deal with China. Elizabeth MacDonald went even further, claiming that China's coal use is even more than reported: “It's probably double or quadruple that. We don't even know.” [Fox News, Forbes on Fox, 11/7/15]

Fox's Dana Perino: China Is “Lying” About Emissions, Paris Climate Change Talks Are “Based On Lies.” On the November 4 edition of Fox News' The Five, co-host Dana Perino asserted that China “has been lying about its output of carbon emissions” for the “last several years,” adding: " Next week, I think, President Obama goes to Paris to have this consultation about a big climate change summit, and it's based on lies." [Fox News, The Five, 11/4/15]

Fox Business Panel Agrees That China Has “Been Lying To Us,” Will Not Abide By Climate Commitments. On the November 4 edition of Fox Business' Varney & Co., host Stuart Varney declared: “I've got a news alert for you. Here we go. China's been lying to us.” Correspondent Elizabeth MacDonald asserted, "[t]here's probably more cheating going on," and correspondent Ashley Webster claimed that China is "[a]bsolutely not" going to abide by its carbon reduction commitments:

LIZ MACDONALD: And China's among those countries that want the U.S. and developed nations to pony up 100 billion each or more toward climate change and, by the way, China's emissions, they only promise the stop growing by 2030 but the president doesn't say what level they're going to be at by 2030. As Ashley just said it's the equivalent of Germany. There's probably more cheating going on. And understatement going on.

STUART VARNEY: President Obama is going to Paris to the U.N. climate change summit in December of this year. And he has already agreed that we have to cut our emissions even more than we were going to. But China doesn't even have to start cutting until 2030 and then they only have to try to cut?

ASHLEY WEBSTER: Yeah. Are they are they going to be compliant? Absolutely not.

VARNEY: Well --

WEBSTER: Look at what's going on.

VARNEY: All right. Say no more Stuart. [Fox Business, Varney & Co., 11/4/15]

Fox's Kilmeade: China Was “Proved To Be Lying” About Coal Consumption. On the November 6 edition of Fox News' Fox & Friends, co-host Brian Kilmeade asserted: “Coal users are being vilified. And China's being told to constrain their consumption yet they were proved to be lying about it.” [Fox News, Fox & Friends, 11/6/15]

Breitbart News: China's CO2 Emissions Policy Is “Tell The Gullible Gwailo Whatever They Want To Hear,” Then Keep Building Coal Plants. Breitbart News' James Delingpole wrote that the revised numbers “make a nonsense of China's publicly-expressed commitment to wage war on climate change”:

The new figures make a nonsense of China's publicly-expressed commitment to wage war on climate change.

Only two days ago, Chinese president Xi Jinping emerged from a summit with French president Francois Hollande, calling for “an ambitious and legally binding deal” at the forthcoming COP21 climate talks being staged by the UN in Paris later this month.

This moved Greenpeace China's Li Shuo to declare it “encouraging to see the ball rolling and diplomacy nudging us a small step forward”.

He added: “Moreover, with the recent decline in coal consumption and robust renewable energy development, China is positioning itself at the front of climate leadership. This is drastically different from six years ago in Copenhagen.”

We now know that this was wishful thinking. Not that we couldn't have guessed this anyway.

China's policy on CO2 emissions is - and always has been - a case of “tell the gullible Gwailo whatever they want to hear - then carry on building coal-fired power stations regardless.” [Breitbart News, 11/4/15]

Daily Caller: China Was Keeping Coal Use “Secret,” Revisions Prove Critics “Were Right” To Not Trust China's Pledge To Cut Emissions. The Daily Caller published a November 4 article headlined: “China's Latest Admission Could Derail UN Global Warming Talks.” In it, the Daily Caller's Michael Bastasch asserted:

China has a secret it doesn't want President Barack Obama or the United Nations to know: It burns way more coal for electricity than older official data suggests.

But now the secret's out.

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[F]rom the beginning, Republican lawmakers warned China could not be trusted to replace cheap fossil fuels with costly green energy. Now it seems critics, like Oklahoma Republican Sen. Jim Inhofe , were right about being wary of China's promise to cut emissions. [Daily Caller, 11/4/15]

WSJ Editorial Board Member: Coal Revision Is “A Hit For The Rule Of Law And Accountability” Ahead Of Paris Climate Talks. On the November 8 edition of Fox News' Journal Editorial Report, Wall Street Journal editorial board member Joseph Rago said China's coal statistic revision was “a hit for the rule of law and political accountability”:

This month we're coming up on the big Paris climate conference, and the big breakthrough this year is supposed to be a deal between China and the U.S. on carbon. Well, this week we learned that Chinese coal use was actually 17% higher than they've been reporting in the official statistics. To give you a sense of the scale, 17% in China is equal to 70% of all U.S. carbon emissions. So this is actually a hit for the rule of law and political accountability, which China lacks in the U.S. [Fox News, Journal Editorial Report, 11/8/15]

Boston Herald Editorial Board: China Coal Data Could Make Paris Conference “An Even More Dubious Effort Than We Expected.” The Boston Herald editorial board asserted that China's coal usage revision “could make the upcoming Paris conference on global warming an even more dubious effort than we expected.” [Boston Herald, 11/7/15]