On the January 3 edition of MSNBC's Morning Joe, while discussing possible outcomes of the Iowa Democratic caucuses that evening, MSNBC host Chris Matthews asserted that if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) were to “squeak” out a victory, she will nonetheless have been “rejected here in Iowa by two-thirds of the Democratic Party.” Matthews added that she would be “lucky to get 33 percent” and went on to say that a “low 30 percent” result would represent “a resounding rejection” of Clinton.

Earlier in the show, Matthews predicted that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) would win 18 percent of votes in the Iowa Republican caucuses, although in contrast with his comments about Clinton, Matthews did not assert that if he is right, McCain will have been “rejected” by 82 percent of Iowa Republican caucus participants. Indeed, while Matthews characterized a “low 30 percent” result for Clinton as negative, he suggested on the January 2 edition of MSNBC's Hardball that if McCain were to receive 18 percent of the vote, he would be “the big hero.”

In a January 2 “guide” to “post-caucus spin” posted on MSNBC.com, NBC News political director Chuck Todd foreshadowed Matthews' spin on a “low 30 percent” result for Clinton. Todd wrote that if there is a “three-way tie,” Clinton will have to “make sure the media doesn't somehow turn the tie into a '60-plus percent of Democrats rejected her' spin” and added: “While the Clinton campaign believes that they've gotten bad media coverage, they do have to worry about a certain segment of the press interpreting Clinton as the incumbent being rejected by majority margins.” From Todd's January 2 post:

A three-way tie: The Clinton camp will have two challenges in this scenario. One is to make sure the media doesn't somehow turn the tie into a “60-plus percent of Democrats rejected her” spin. While the Clinton campaign believes that they've gotten bad media coverage, they do have to worry about a certain segment of the press interpreting Clinton as the incumbent being rejected by majority margins. The second challenge is to make sure they declare victory in this case. With the polls indicating that Edwards and Obama had the juice to win, and Clinton seeming destined for no better than second, a tie may equal a win if her camp plays their cards right.

From the January 3 edition of MSNBC's Morning Joe:

JOE SCARBORUGH (host): What's going to happen tonight?

MATTHEWS: Well, I said it last night. Here it is, my trifecta. Ready? Mika?

MIKA BRZEZNSKI (co-host): Yeah, I'm ready.

MATTHEWS: Obama wins tonight -- Obama wins on the Democratic side tonight. By a decent amount, I think. [Republican presidential candidate Mitt] Romney squeaks it, and McCain surprises everybody by pulling in 18 percent. That's my trifecta tonight. I think it's risky, but I think that's what's going to happen based upon what I know.

SCARBOROUGH: Then let's break that down, and let's work backwards because that's fascinating. And I think you're exactly right. If John McCain comes in anywhere near 20 percent, that is a huge story that has implications for the Republican nomination for the next several weeks, right?

[...]

SCARBOROUGH: Chris, if you are right and Barack Obama wins the caucus out here tonight, and John Edwards is right, and he has a very strong showing -- both very plausible scenarios, that could put -- and Bob Novak's predicting this and several other people are -- that could put Hillary Clinton in third place.

MATTHEWS: Right, Joe. Joe.

SCARBOROUGH: How damaging is that to her future prospects?

MATTHEWS: I think in terms of world news, it's the second headline. Maybe it's the biggest news domestically. Because if you look at the numbers as they're shaping up, it looks to me like even if Hillary Clinton does manage to squeak it tonight -- I don't think she will -- she's been rejected here in Iowa by two-thirds of the Democratic Party. She is lucky to get 33 percent.

In other words, people who really know her well, have known her since 1991, really know her and can tell you -- they don't even read books about it. Carl Bernstein's written a hell of a book. Sally Bedell Smith's written a hell of a book. Nobody really wants to read about it. They all know enough about Hillary. We are absolutely filled up -- we are saturated with Hillary knowledge, as far as we're concerned.

And after all that knowledge, we say, by 2-to-1, no. I mean, I'm talking about the Democratic Party participants in the caucuses tonight. That's a resounding rejection if she only gets, like, a low 30 percent. Very resounding.

From the 7 p.m. ET hour of edition of MSNBC's Hardball with Chris Matthews on January 2:

MATTHEWS: Let me ask you -- let me ask you this about the John McCain. Andrea [Mitchell, NBC News chief foreign affairs correspondent], you first. John McCain looks like he might be in the position that Gary Hart was in back in '84. Get a high percentage, a teen number, say, poll 18 tomorrow night and be the big hero tomorrow night?

MITCHELL: And his only -- you know, he's come back here tonight, so McCain is back in state. He could be a big surprise, and that could really change the dynamic of the race, giving him even more of an impetus into New Hampshire.

MATTHEWS: I say McCain gets 18 points or more. Anyway, Andrea Mitchell, Howard Fineman [Newsweek senior Washington correspondent], thank you all. Coming up, the Democratic race in Iowa could be -- not be any closer. We're going to talk to the top advisers from the three top candidates, Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. I made my pick. It's going to be Obama. It's going to be Romney and McCain. Watch him, he's up about 18 points.

We'll see more. More coming back on Hardball.