After reportedly shelving its speculative documentary, We Were Warned -- Iran Goes Nuclear, because of the recently released National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) conclusion that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003, on December 8, CNN instead aired Iran: Fact & Fiction, a “CNN: Special Investigations Unit” report, narrated by CNN anchor Campbell Brown. During the report, special correspondent Frank Sesno said that Iran's nuclear “weaponizing program” has “apparently ... stopped” -- an apparent reference to the Iran NIE -- but added that Iran is “still proceeding with” its development of highly enriched uranium (HEU). However, the NIE noted that “Iran's civilian uranium enrichment program is continuing,” not that Iran is currently processing highly enriched uranium. Moreover, in the most recent report (November 15) on Iran's nuclear program, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general Mohamed ElBaradei stated that “from the environmental samples taken by the Agency from cascade components and related equipment” in Iran, the IAEA has found, so far, only uranium enrichment consistent with a civilian nuclear program.

To produce a nuclear weapon, uranium must contain 85-90 percent or more of the isotope uranium-235 (U-235). The term, "highly enriched uranium," refers to uranium containing 20 percent or more U-235. Low-enriched uranium, which contains less than 20 percent U-235, is used in civilian nuclear programs for power reactors. While ElBaradei's November 15 report stated that the IAEA “is not in a position to provide credible assurances about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran,” it also stated that “the highest U-235 enrichment measured so far from the environmental samples taken by the Agency from cascade components and related equipment [in Iran] is 4.0 [percent].”

During the report, Sesno claimed Israel is “not wrong” to threaten military action if Iran does not stop its enrichment program, because “you need three things to make a nuclear bomb a real threat: One, you need the weaponizing program. That's what apparently Iran has stopped. Two, you need the highly enriched uranium. They're still proceeding with that. And three, you need a missile or some way to deliver it. They're still working with that.” However, according to the most recent NIE, Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and currently does not have the technical capabilities to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon. From the report's "key judgments":

• We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon is late 2009, but that this is very unlikely.

• We judge with moderate confidence Iran probably would be technically capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame. (INR [State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research] judges Iran is unlikely to achieve this capability before 2013 because of foreseeable technical and programmatic problems.)

The NIE also stated with “moderate confidence” that Iran “would use covert facilities” to enrich uranium to a high level of U-235 but that “these efforts probably were halted in response to the fall 2003 halt, and that these efforts probably had not been restarted through at least mid-2007.” From the report's "key judgments":

• We assess with moderate confidence that Iran probably would use covert facilities -- rather than its declared nuclear sites -- for the production of highly enriched uranium for a weapon. A growing amount of intelligence indicates Iran was engaged in covert uranium conversion and uranium enrichment activity, but we judge that these efforts probably were halted in response to the fall 2003 halt, and that these efforts probably had not been restarted through at least mid-2007.

Variety magazine reported that CNN aired Iran: Fact & Fiction after "postpon[ing]" We Were Warned, because of the conclusions in the latest NIE. According to Variety, "[t]he two-hour spec, which was slated for Dec. 12 under the 'CNN Presents' banner, was 'set partially in the future,' featuring a what-if scenario as former government officials -- playing fictional cabinet members -- debate how to deal with the Iranian threat." Variety quoted CNN vice president and senior executive producer Mark Nelson's claim that We Were Warned was “based on a different set of rules and a different set of conditions” and that the NIE “changed everything.”

From the December 8 broadcast of the “CNN: Special Investigations Unit” report, Iran: Fact & Fiction:

BROWN: But you're getting a very hard-line position from every -- the Bush administration -- we talked about that obviously -- but also Israel, a predictable reaction, saying they give up enrichment or face military action.

SESNO: And guess what? They're not wrong. I mean, you need three things to make a nuclear bomb a real threat: One, you need the weaponizing program. That's what apparently Iran has stopped. Two, you need the highly enriched uranium. They're still proceeding with that. And three, you need a missile or some way to deliver it. They're still working with that.

So, it's not exactly as if the Iranians have said, “Oh, never mind. We're going to join the community of nations. We didn't mean all this.” It's still out there and because of these suspicions and this distrust that's so deep, it's going to take an enormous amount of work to get past that and to get past the threat.

BROWN: Trita Parsi [president of National Iranian American Council] and Frank Sesno, thanks.