Measuring Obama's Lack of Libya “Bounce,” CNN Cites Polling Taken Before Bombing

Written by Eric Boehlert

Published

The CNN headline:

CNN Poll: So far, Obama gets no bounce from Libya

The article stressed that Obama's approval rating remained “unchanged” in the wake of the announced military action, which contrasts with the often positive “rally effect” presidents enjoy, at least temporarily, when military action is ordered.

The lede:

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation national survey released Monday indicates that 51 percent of Americans approve of the job Obama is doing in the White House, with 47 percent saying they disapprove. The 51 percent approval rating is virtually unchanged from the 50 percent figure found in a poll conducted on March 11-13.

And when was the current poll taken? March 18-20.

Therein lies the problem, which CNN's head of polling concedes in the article [emphasis added]:

“The current poll is based on interviews that occurred both before and after the air strikes, so it's possible that the 'rally effect' will only be seen in polls released later this week that were conducted entirely after the military action began,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

I have no idea whether Obama will get a bounce in the polls based on the military action ordered against Libya. But I do know that asking people before the bombing began is not the best way to measure a reaction to the Libya news.