Right-wing media claimed a downward jobs revision indicated recession. A new GDP revision shows the economy actually grew more than expected.

Right-wing media have been quick to catastrophize every hiccup in the economy this election cycle, ignoring many of the facts

Written by Zachary Pleat

Published

After the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report on August 21 showing that 818,000 fewer jobs than initially estimated were created between March 2023-March 2024, right-wing media falsely claimed this report showed that the U.S. is in recession. Fox Business was particularly loud in proclaiming the downward jobs revision was a recession indicator.

However, an August 29 release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the real gross domestic product (GDP) of the U.S. increased at a 3% rate in the second quarter of this year, an upward revision from an initial estimate of 2.8% and more than double the first quarter GDP growth of 1.4%. 

Although it’s not the official definition, recession is generally understood to begin after two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. Economists take a more holistic approach to determining when the economy is in recession. Given the positive GDP growth over the last two quarters, even this oversimplified yardstick did not indicate the U.S. economy was in recession, and these revised BEA numbers are further proof of the current strength of the economy. 

Discussing his analysis of the new BEA release, Bobby Kogan, the Center for American Progress senior director of federal budget policy, gave context on just how strong this data shows the U.S. economy is:

Real GDP was just revised upwards.



Economic growth has outpaced *pre*-COVID projections. In other words, the economy is stronger in 2024 than we thought it would be before COVID even happened.



And it's stronger now than we thought it would be when Biden and Harris took office. pic.twitter.com/McORrjTkyk

— Bobby Kogan (@BBKogan) August 29, 2024

In a separate post, Kogan noted that the “US GDP growth has outpaced all other G7 nations” and “wages at the bottom rose so much, income inequality is down, undoing 1/3 of its growth since Reagan.” Ernie Tedeschi, economic director of Yale’s Budget Lab, also noted that “3% is a very good number.”

These facts did not deter right-wing media however — misleading economic doomsaying about the BLS report from Fox News and others is the latest in a series of false attacks on the economy this year.

Right-wing media falsely claimed the downward jobs revision meant the U.S. is in recession

  • Daily Caller cited a Heritage Foundation economist to claim the BLS report shows a “recession may have already begun.” E.J. Antoni told the Daily Caller, “Wall Street is increasingly waking up to the fact that the economy post-covid has never been as good as the government bean counters claimed, and a recession may have already begun. These revisions are a violent shove in the direction of reality.” The Heritage Foundation is the leading organization behind Project 2025. [Daily Caller, 8/21/24; Media Matters, accessed 8/30/24]
  • Trump economic adviser Kevin Hassett on Fox Business: “What we found out today, in the revisions for the payroll numbers is that we're probably already in a recession.” [Fox Business, Kudlow, 8/21/24]
  • Fox Business host Larry Kudlow cited Hassett to say “we could be on the front end of a recession” because of the BLS revision. [Fox Business, Kudlow, 8/22/24]
  • Fox Business anchor Dagen McDowell also cited Hassett to claim, “This proves right now that, in essence … that the United States is now in a recession.” [Fox News, The Ingraham Angle, 8/21/24]
  • Fox News host Jesse Watters and Fox Business host Stuart Varney used the BLS report to claim the economy is in bad shape. Watters said, “The economy’s check engine light has been blinking for three years and Biden and Harris have been ignoring it. They say the economy is great. Just look at the job numbers. Well we did, and they disappeared.” Varney chimed in: “It’s going to be interesting to see how Kamala pivots on this. How do you reverse the idea — oh, we have got a great booming economy, but you don't. … How is she going to pivot with these lousy jobs numbers?” [Fox News, Jesse Watters Primetime, 8/21/24]
  • Fox Business anchor David Asman: Jobs numbers revision shows “a real, genuine slowdown we’re in the midst of right now.” [Fox Business, Kudlow, 8/20/24]

This follows many other false right-wing media attacks on the Biden-Harris economy

  • MAGA media also responded to the BLS revision of jobs numbers with conspiracy theories that the administration is “cooking the books” and that it constitutes “election interference.” In reality, this revision is routine and occurs every year as “a more accurate but less timely data source” that “covers nearly all US jobs” becomes available. Additionally, the same BLS published negative revisions during the Trump administration, including -501,000 in 2019. In 2022, the BLS revision actually revealed that the government had significantly undercounted job growth. [Media Matters, 8/21/24]
  • Trump and his MAGA media boosters tried to blame Vice President Kamala Harris for a temporary drop in the stock market. Financial news outlets report that the sell off occurred in response to a weaker than expected jobs report, which economists blamed on the Federal Reserve. Additionally, the stock market began its recovery the next day, and a week later, was above the value before the sell off. [Media Matters, 8/5/24, 8/14/24]
  • Pro-Trump media bizarrely placed blame on Harris for a weaker than expected July jobs report. Economists explained that while the overall economy is still strong, the July jobs report indicated that the Federal Reserve has lagged in cutting interest rates, which remained unchanged after the Federal Open Market Committee met in late July. Indeed, later in August, Fed chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the “time has come” for interest rate cuts. [Media Matters, 8/2/24, 8/28/24]
  • Fox News attacked a blockbuster inflation report that showed the first decline in prices since May 2020. [Media Matters, 7/11/24; Market Watch, 7/11/24]
  • Right-wing media reacted to the blowout May jobs report with nativism and related conspiracy theorizing. Following the June 7 release of the latest federal jobs report — which showed that employment increased by 272,000 jobs in May, far more than the expectations of 180,000 jobs — many right-wing commentators responded by denouncing the job creation witnessed during the Biden administration for mostly going to “foreign-born workers” versus “native-born.” However, this charge is misleading; nearly half of “foreign-born workers” are already American citizens, while millions more are lawful permanent residents who legally work in the United States. Right-wing media pushed similar talking points in February, citing an anti-immigrant hate group. [Media Matters, 6/10/24, 2/20/24]
  • A Fox segment called the April inflation report, which cooled slightly from the previous month and was in line with expectations, a “nasty report” that’s “not good.” [Media Matters, 5/15/24]
  • Fox also repeatedly attacked the Biden-Harris administration over grocery prices even as they remained flat. [Media Matters, 4/11/24, 3/12/24]